Posted on 10/27/2002 12:34:54 PM PST by TnGOP
NASHVILLE - Van Hilleary and Phil Bredesen are neck-and-neck in the Tennessee governor's race, with Hilleary measuring a 2 percentage-point lead, a new poll shows.
The poll, which shows Hilleary at 41 percent and Bredesen at 39 percent, suggests a photo finish that hinges on turnout and the 15 percent who say they're undecided.
The Commercial Appeal and News Channel 3 commissioned the poll of 819 registered voters across Tennessee.
The two-point spread is statistically meaningless, because the error margin is 3.5 percentage points.
The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 18-21 by Ethridge & Associates.
The sample was randomly drawn from those who voted in 1994 or 1998, the last two gubernatorial elections.
"It's too close to call. I would never, with a race this close, predict that Hilleary's going to win, but the results show that Hilleary's advantage is a real one," pollster Steve Ethridge said.
Last week, national political guru Larry Sabato called the Hilleary-Bredesen race a tossup.
For months, Sabato had considered Bredesen ahead.
But Bredesen strategist Dave Cooley said the poll's sample - voters in 1994 and 1998 - is badly flawed and its results inconsistent with other polls.
Cooley argues that the 1994 election was skewed conservative, while the 1998 election had a low turnout.
"The sample turns out to be far more conservative than the actual electorate," Cooley said.
He complained that a flawed last-minute poll can affect the election.
Hilleary spokesman Frank Cagle countered that all the state's polls show Hilleary even with or ahead of Bredesen, Nashville's former mayor.
"The fact that Mayor Bredesen's poll numbers have stalled out after millions of dollars in advertising and an easy primary shows that Tennesseans just don't warm to him or his campaign," Cagle said.
Ethridge defended his poll's methodology, saying its aim was to find those most likely to vote.
When the poll results are broken down, they reveal some interesting and surprising results.
While Bredesen outpolls Hilleary slightly in Shelby County, Hilleary leads Bredesen in West Tennessee overall, an indication that Hilleary's folksy style may appeal to rural voters.
The poll suggests Bredesen has a slight edge over Hilleary in traditionally Republican East Tennessee, but trails in his home area of Middle Tennessee and the traditionally Democratic West.
Ethridge speculates that Bredesen still may have trouble winning West Tennessee Democrats "because of the whole Memphis-Nashville rivalry" and Bredesen's big-city image.
But Cooley says the numbers are "just wrong" and that every poll he's seen shows Bredesen ahead in West and Middle Tennessee, and slightly behind in East Tennessee.
Of Tennessee's 3.4 million registered voters, 645,000 registered since 1998 and are excluded from the survey, Cooley points out.
"For the record, our polling, as well as the polling we've been privy to from other candidates, consistently shows Phil Bredesen leading by 3 to 7 points," he said.
Cooley and Cagle agree the East Tennessee numbers are off - both say Hilleary has a narrow lead in the East.
The poll suggests Hilleary has a better command of his partisan base than Bredesen - Hilleary is favored by 73 percent of Republicans, and Bredesen is favored by 69 percent of Democrats.
Bredesen wins 12 percent of the Republican vote, while Hilleary wins 9 percent of the self-described Democrats.
But among independents, Libertarians and others, Hilleary is favored by 45 percent, Bredesen by 35 percent.
The poll shows 28 percent of black voters are undecided, 50 percent intend to vote for Bredesen, and 10 percent favor Hilleary.
Independent candidates Ed Sanders, a Nashville minister, and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker aren't factors in the race, the poll says - each drew support from 1 percent of those polled.
The poll also asked Tennesseans about issues and the state's general direction.
Fifty-one percent of those polled said Tennessee is headed in the wrong direction, while 28 percent said it's on the right track.
The state's most important issue is fiscal responsibility, 18 percent said. Another 18 percent said it's the economy and unemployment, 17 percent chose education, and 17 percent picked taxes.
The poll also quizzed voters about state spending priorities.
The results show that 75 percent want more spent for schools, 57 percent support more for higher education, 74 percent want more spent to care for the elderly, and 54 percent support more for homeland security.
On TennCare, 39 percent advocate more spending, and 39 percent favor cutting the health care program.
Eighty-seven percent of those polled said Tennessee's fiscal problems could be solved with better management.
And 70 percent said Tennessee should reform its tax system.
The anti-lottery crowd is well organized in the churches. The preachers are preaching it, and many signs in front of churches carry anti-lottery slogans. This is good for Hilleary, since many of the lottery opponents are Republicans. The churches are encouraging turnout, and this issue will bring many to the polls that might otherwise sit at home. (My comments here are my opinion, formed by looking, listening, and talking to people in the area)
PLEASE GO TO THE WEB SITE TO READ FULL ARTICLE seems steve cohen is urging voters to NOT vote for weasel phil in order to get his lottery passed: HOBBS
It was surreal. A Democrat urging people not to vote getting incensed at poll workers who are directing people on how to vote. The guy has clearly pegged himself and his legacy on this issue. I hope he loses.
UPDATE: I was asked why Cohen would want to discourage people from voting in the gubernatorial race. Here's why: To win, the lottery referendum must not only get a majority YES vote, it must also get one more vote than 50 percent of the votes cast in the governor's race. If there are 1 million votes cast in the governor's race and only, say, 950,000 in the lottery referendum, the lottery needs 500,001 to win, not just 475,001. Thus, a vote FOR the lottery is magnified by not voting in the gubernatorial race, but a vote AGAINST the lottery is magnified by also casting a vote in the gubernatorial race.
So Cohen, a Democrat, doesn't want lottery supporters to vote in the governors race. Which is hilarious because Phil Bredesen, the Democrat candidate for governor is for the lottery. So Cohen wants Bredesen to not cast a vote for himself for governor. Which would help Republican Van Hilleary, who is opposed to the lottery. Which isn't very smart of Cohen, because the amendment would, if passed, merely allow the Legislature to create a lottery, not require it to do so. A Gov. Hilleary might well put Cohen's dream on the back burner a while - or politicize the lottery legislation debate to Hilleary's advantage. Once it passes the referendum state, the lottery may well become a potent fund-raising tool of conservatives.
The Tennessean unbiased?
It is to laugh!
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