Posted on 10/27/2002 8:26:22 AM PST by BlackRazor
Poll shows little change in race
By SARAH KESSINGER
Harris News Service
TOPEKA - Moving into the final stretch of the governor's race, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius held a 19-point lead over Republican Tim Shallenburger in a recent poll.
Results of the statewide poll of 402 likely voters appear little changed from earlier polls by other media outlets. It was conducted for Harris News Service by MarketAide Services, a Salina-based marketing and communications firm.
As TV ads intensified for both campaigns, the poll conducted Oct. 15-22 showed Sebelius with 53 percent support and Shallenburger with 34 percent. Another 12 percent said they were undecided.
The margin of error was 5 percent, according to John Claman, senior research director for MarketAide Services.
Claman said the poll showed little movement in the race since a poll conducted two weeks ago for The Wichita Eagle and a Wichita TV station. That poll, conducted Oct. 11-13, showed Sebelius leading by 17 points.
As the Nov. 5 election nears, one might expect the race to tighten, Claman said, but this poll didn't bear that out.
"It's a little surprising in a Republican-dominated state to see the strength of Sebelius' numbers," Claman said.
The two smaller-party candidates, Libertarian Dennis Hawver and Reform Party candidate Ted Pettibone, each had support of half a percent.
The HNS poll results combine voters who said they had decided on a candidate and those who said they were undecided but leaning toward a particular candidate.
Alan Cobb, spokesman for Shallenburger, said the media polls were off in the primary election and he believes they continue to be incorrect. Polls prior to the August primary election showed a close race, but Shallenburger won by 12 points.
"Nobody in their right mind thinks Sebelius has that big of a lead," Cobb said. "Without a doubt, we are behind. Our planning from the beginning was a sprint at the end. It has been our plan from the beginning to have our Republican and issue coalitions come together at the end, which is exactly what is happening."
Cobb complained about the poll's methodology, in which the pollster randomly selected a calling list of 402 registered voters who had voted in two or more previous elections among the last four state primaries and general elections.
"... It is highly unreliable and the data is already more than a week old," Cobb said.
A lot has happened since then, he said, adding that Sebelius had performed poorly in an Oct. 22 televised debate.
"That's ridiculous," said Sebelius' campaign spokeswoman Nicole Corcoran Basso.
She expressed no surprise at the poll results.
"We greatly appreciate the support we've received from every corner of Kansas, but we take nothing for granted," Basso said. "For Kansas to make the changes our state needs from a governor we will work harder than ever for the people's support on November 5th."
The Democrat didn't dominate in the other race included in the polling. A question on the Kansas attorney general's race found Republican candidate Phill Kline led by a 15-point margin over Democrat Chris Biggs, 43 percent to 28 percent. About 29 percent said they were undecided in that race.
This is the first indepenent poll conducted for this race that was not by SurveyUSA. Unfortunately, the results are no different.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
For the past few years, the conservative and moderate wings of the Kansas Republican Party have been engaging in fratricide--especially in the north-east, near Kansas City.
This is why my Congressional district is now represented by Democrat Dennis Moore, and why our moderate Republican governor appears to have offered only token support for the conservative Republican nominee.
A house divided against itself cannot stand.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.