TN Elections: Van Hilleary (R) lead 'a real one' in tight poll (conflicting polls)

NASHVILLE - Van Hilleary and Phil Bredesen are neck-and-neck in the Tennessee governor's race, with Hilleary measuring a 2 percentage-point lead, a new poll shows.

The poll, which shows Hilleary at 41 percent and Bredesen at 39 percent, suggests a photo finish that hinges on turnout and the 15 percent who say they're undecided.

The Commercial Appeal and News Channel 3 commissioned the poll of 819 registered voters across Tennessee.

The two-point spread is statistically meaningless, because the error margin is 3.5 percentage points.

The sample was randomly drawn from those who voted in 1994 or 1998, the last two gubernatorial elections.

"It's too close to call. I would never, with a race this close, predict that Hilleary's going to win, but the results show that Hilleary's advantage is a real one," pollster Steve Ethridge said.

Last week, national political guru Larry Sabato called the Hilleary-Bredesen race a tossup.

But Bredesen strategist Dave Cooley said the poll's sample - voters in 1994 and 1998 - is badly flawed and its results inconsistent with other polls.

Cooley argues that the 1994 election was skewed conservative, while the 1998 election had a low turnout.

"The sample turns out to be far more conservative than the actual electorate," Cooley said.

Hilleary spokesman Frank Cagle countered that all the state's polls show Hilleary even with or ahead of Bredesen, Nashville's former mayor.

"The fact that Mayor Bredesen's poll numbers have stalled out after millions of dollars in advertising and an easy primary shows that Tennesseans just don't warm to him or his campaign," Cagle said.

Ethridge defended his poll's methodology, saying its aim was to find those most likely to vote.

When the poll results are broken down, they reveal some interesting and surprising results.

While Bredesen outpolls Hilleary slightly in Shelby County, Hilleary leads Bredesen in West Tennessee overall, an indication that Hilleary's folksy style may appeal to rural voters.

The poll suggests Bredesen has a slight edge over Hilleary in traditionally Republican East Tennessee, but trails in his home area of Middle Tennessee and the traditionally Democratic West.

Ethridge speculates that Bredesen still may have trouble winning West Tennessee Democrats "because of the whole Memphis-Nashville rivalry" and Bredesen's big-city image.

But Cooley says the numbers are "just wrong" and that every poll he's seen shows Bredesen ahead in West and Middle Tennessee, and slightly behind in East Tennessee.

Of Tennessee's 3.4 million registered voters, 645,000 registered since 1998 and are excluded from the survey, Cooley points out.

"For the record, our polling, as well as the polling we've been privy to from other candidates, consistently shows Phil Bredesen leading by 3 to 7 points," he said.

Cooley and Cagle agree the East Tennessee numbers are off - both say Hilleary has a narrow lead in the East.

The poll suggests Hilleary has a better command of his partisan base than Bredesen - Hilleary is favored by 73 percent of Republicans, and Bredesen is favored by 69 percent of Democrats.

Bredesen wins 12 percent of the Republican vote, while Hilleary wins 9 percent of the self-described Democrats.

But among independents, Libertarians and others, Hilleary is favored by 45 percent, Bredesen by 35 percent.

The poll shows 28 percent of black voters are undecided, 50 percent intend to vote for Bredesen, and 10 percent favor Hilleary.

Independent candidates Ed Sanders, a Nashville minister, and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker aren't factors in the race, the poll says - each drew support from 1 percent of those polled.

Fifty-one percent of those polled said Tennessee is headed in the wrong direction, while 28 percent said it's on the right track.

The state's most important issue is fiscal responsibility, 18 percent said. Another 18 percent said it's the economy and unemployment, 17 percent chose education, and 17 percent picked taxes.

The results show that 75 percent want more spent for schools, 57 percent support more for higher education, 74 percent want more spent to care for the elderly, and 54 percent support more for homeland security.

On TennCare, 39 percent advocate more spending, and 39 percent favor cutting the health care program.

Eighty-seven percent of those polled said Tennessee's fiscal problems could be solved with better management.

Find more election coverage on the Web - issues stories, profiles, polls, ballot list, early voting locations and more. Go to www.gomemphis.com. Click on Local News, then on Politics.

http://www.tennessean.com/government/archives/02/10/24310215.shtml?Element_ID=24310215

Bredesen extends lead in poll; Hilleary runs 3% behind statewide By BONNA de la CRUZ Staff Writer

Democrat Phil Bredesen has extended the slight lead he held last month in the governor's race by one point, while Republican Van Hilleary's support remained steady in the latest statewide poll.

With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 election, the new poll indicated that ''unfavorable'' ratings for both men shot up since an identical survey in mid-September. The pollster attributed that to aggressive television advertising by both candidates over the past five weeks.

Bredesen polled 45% to Hilleary's 42% when respondents were asked Monday-Wednesday of last week which candidate they would vote for if the election were held that day. Another 10% said they were undecided, and 3% said they would vote for another candidate.

The Tennessean poll of 625 people who said they were registered voters and vote regularly in state elections was conducted Oct. 21-23 and has a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means Bredesen's total could be between 49% and 41% and Hilleary's could be between 38% and 46%.

Because the 3-point lead is within the 4-point margin of error, the race could be considered statistically even.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., for The Tennessean and The Chattanooga Times Free Press.

''There is not a lot of change except the negative ratings for both candidates went up significantly,'' said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.

''It looks like they are throwing bombs at one another, but not much has happened except their stature with voters is going down.''

Bredesen's ''unfavorable'' rating jumped 11 points, from 20% in a survey taken Sept. 17-19 to 31% last week. Hilleary's climbed 6 points, from 21% in September to 27%.

Poll results in the Bredesen-Hilleary matchup are very similar to the September survey. The new poll reflects a one-point increase for Bredesen and one-point decrease in the percentage of respondents supporting minor candidates. The percentage of respondents favoring Hilleary or who said they were undecided did not move.

''Both sides have locked down their base vote, and now they're fighting over that last 10%,'' Coker said. ''Neither one has been able to get a leg up on the other with that group over the past month. It's a competitive race.''

The race could go down to the wire if both campaigns spend enough money, stick to the same themes and neither blunders too badly, Coker said.

In two previous polls — July 2002 and May 2001 — Bredesen held a 6-point advantage over Hilleary, with the same 4-percentage-point margin for error.

In this survey, independent candidate Ed Sanders, a Nashville minister, polled 1% statewide with his strongest showing in west Tennessee where he was getting 2%. Independent candidate John Jay Hooker of Nashville received less than a half of 1%. Two percent of respondents said they favored another candidate.

Bredesen and Hilleary's campaign aides said the spike in negative ratings is typical given the negative ads each said was coming from the other side.

''I think clearly the momentum is in our corner, while Phil Bredesen is stuck,'' said Jennifer Coxe, press secretary to Hilleary.

''We've moved up in other polls,'' said Coxe, citing a new poll by the Commercial Appeal of Memphis that shows Hilleary ahead by 2 points. That poll's margin for error is 4 percentage points.

Dave Cooley, senior strategist for Bredesen, dismissed the Memphis newspaper's poll, saying that only people who voted in 1994 and 1998 were surveyed. Those were the years of the most recent two elections for governor. He said it excludes everyone who registered to vote since 1998 and said the poll sample was skewed in favor of Republicans.

''We're very encouraged by the comfortable leads in middle and west Tennessee,'' Cooley said, ''and we think this is a very competitive race in east Tennessee.''

The Tennessean survey indicates that Bredesen outpolled Hilleary in Middle Tennessee by 6 points and in West Tennessee by 11 points, with Hilleary 7 points stronger in East Tennessee, which traditionally votes Republican.

''We're optimistic we can actually carry East Tennessee,'' Cooley said about Tennessee's most conservative grand division. Bredesen has spent about 65% of his time campaigning in East Tennessee, he said, and plans to campaign there tomorrow.

A large part of Bredesen's strategy has been to appeal to Republicans there and elsewhere in the state.

The poll asked the 625 respondents their party identification, whether they considered themselves ''a Democrat, a Republican or something else.'' Bredesen pulled 8% of those who said they were Republicans, and Hilleary attracted 4% of those who said they were Democrats.

Of respondents who said they were Democrats, 86% said they would vote for Bredesen, while 44% of those who said they were independent said they would support the Democrat. Of the Republicans, 81% said they were for Hilleary, and 36% of those who considered themselves independent said they would support the Republican.

A slim majority of respondents said opposition to a state income tax is not a major factor in deciding which candidate to support. Of those responding, 45% said the issue is a major factor, while 37% said it was not and 15% said it was ''a minor factor.'' Three percent said they were not sure.

The issue, however, appears more important to Hilleary supporters, with 57% of those who said they would vote for Hilleary citing opposition to a state income tax as a major factor; 21% said it was not a factor, and 19% listed it as ''minor.''

Among those who said they would vote for Bredesen, 34% said position on the income tax was a major factor, 14% said it was a minor factor, and almost a majority — 49% — said it was not a factor.

''I'm afraid of an income tax with either one of them, but I think Bredesen will not hesitate on one if he needed the money,'' said David Clay, 59, an insurance adjuster who lives in La Vergne.

Clay said he's ''not very impressed'' with Hilleary and Bredesen comes off much more ''suave,'' but he added that he plans to vote for Hilleary because he is conservative.

''I thought Bredesen was a decent mayor. He brought professional sports, and I liked that, but he did increase (property) taxes three times, and I was living in (Davidson) county then, and I didn't like that,'' Clay said.

Mary Hurst, 67, who lives in Maynardville in East Tennessee and sells Avon products, says she's a Democrat in very Republican Union County and plans to vote for Bredesen.

''I just think he would be better, and we need to make some changes, and I'd like to see if he can help us any. It can't get any worse,'' said Hurst, citing Bredesen's record as mayor of Nashville as a plus. ''I've heard some Republicans here say he's done good things, and they'll vote for him.''

She said she does not like the mudslinging she sees in the television ad war that the candidates are waging but believes Bredesen is more often the target.

In a breakdown of the matchup, Bredesen polled better among women and Hilleary among men. They are both well-known, with 5% saying they did not recognize Bredesen's name and 4% not recognizing Hilleary.

When respondents were asked which candidate would most effectively manage state finances, control state spending and balance the budget, Bredesen held a slight lead over Hilleary, with Bredesen getting 44% to Hilleary's 41%.

When the same question was asked in the September survey, the candidates were about even, with Bredesen at 38% to Hilleary's 37%, but the poll question included ''without raising taxes'' at the end.

Bredesen's campaign has stressed his management and business executive experience, while Hilleary has pledged to always oppose a state income tax.

During a televised debate earlier, Bredesen pledged not to support an income tax in his first four-year term and promised to campaign on the issue if conditions changed and he ran for re-election.

About two thirds of respondents, 65%, said the fact that a Republican has held the governor's office for the past eight years has no bearing on their vote.

• For more, see the 2002 Voter's Guide.

About the poll

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., Oct 21-23.

A total of 625 voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All respondents used in the poll said they were registered to vote and said they definitely would or probably would vote. Those who told the pollster they were not registered to vote or may not, probably would not or definitely would not vote were excluded.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of their telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter turnout by county.

The margin for error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means 95% of all possible samples of 625 likely voters will produce a result that ranges from 4 points higher to 4 points lower than a poll of the entire population.

The poll included 310 men and 315 women. There were 230 interviews in East Tennessee, 219 in Middle Tennessee and 176 in West Tennessee.

Of those polled, 38% identified themselves as Republicans, 35% as Democrats and 27% as independents

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