Posted on 10/23/2002 5:04:31 AM PDT by Theodore R.
Poll: Landrieu in front, still facing runoff John Hill / Louisiana Gannett News Posted on October 23, 2002
BATON ROUGE - U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu is out front in her bid for re-election, according to a poll conducted last week for The Times and KSLA TV-12.
Landrieu had 44 percent of the 400 likely voters polled statewide Thursday-Saturday nights by Mason-Dixon Opinion Research of Columbia, Md.
While she still could score a primary victory Nov. 5, she certainly has a good chance of finding herself in a heated runoff. The question now is against which Republican challenger.
While the poll shows State Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell of New Orleans pulling into second place ahead of U.S. Rep. John Cooksey of Monroe, Cooksey and state Rep. Tony Perkins of Baton Rouge remain optimistic they can turn the tide in the last two weeks of the election.
Terrell had 20 percent, compared to Cooksey's 15 percent and Perkins' 6 percent. Twelve percent remain undecided.
"Turnout is the key," said pollster Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon. "Voter turnout in the African-American community can fluctuate from election to election."
The poll showed 77 percent of black voters siding with Landrieu, who got more than 99 percent in the 1996 Senate race. The poll showed minor candidate the Rev. Raymond Brown, a black minister in New Orleans, with 5 percent of the black vote.
Mason-Dixon's poll has a 5 percent margin of error, which means any candidates' actual percentage among all voters could be up or down 5 percentage points from the poll.
Landrieu pulled 31 percent of the white vote, a level usually adequate for a Democrat to win, considering she gets the typical nine out of 10 black votes.
"If there is a reason to bring out the African-American voters, that could put Landrieu over the top," Coker said. "Politics in Louisiana is more volatile than anywhere else in the country, so I have learned not to make any absolute predictions," said the pollster, who conducts surveys in every state.
Louisiana Tech political scientist Jason Pigg said the poll seems to indicate Landrieu could be over the 50 percent edge, "but it's still too close to call."
She needs 50 percent, plus one vote, to avoid a Dec. 7 runoff.
International affairs could be the deciding factor.
"If the Iraq situation keeps on receding in voters' minds, that might be enough to get Landrieu over that 50 percent hump," Pigg said. "If people in Louisiana start getting more concerned about the economy and domestic issues, the traditional issues, that's going to help Landrieu.
"If they get more concerned about Iraq, I think that will help give Republicans a boost just by being more aligned with (President George W.) Bush even though Landrieu is closely aligned with Bush on that.
"That will be the deciding issue, I think," Pigg said.
All the candidates saw positives in the recent poll results for their campaigns. "The polls have consistently shown we can win in the primary," she said.
The lead is particularly good considering "the opposition has been relentless in their negative attacks, with over $2 million having been spent distorting my record. We've had to counter that. Our data shows a lot of the negative campaigning has not worked," Landrieu said.
Terrell said she is certain she can make the runoff, and that the recent polls show her pulling away from her Republican opponents as opposed to earlier polls. "We feel very encouraged," Terrell said. "Things are going our way. The next two weeks will be decisive. And if it's a runoff, it's a whole new ballgame."
Landrieu, however, feels she has a good chance of avoiding that game.
She said her own polls show she is pulling significant independent and some Republican support. The Mason-Dixon poll shows her with 12 percent of the Republican vote and 40 percent of the independent vote.
"Voters are much smarter than some people have thought," she said. "I've felt it was more effective to speak honestly rather than use gimmicky, negative campaigning."
Cooksey believes the poll shows him in a perfect position to overtake Terrell for the second spot Nov. 5.
"In the last poll we did, I was at about 22 or 23 percent and (Terrell) was at 19 percent," Cooksey said. "She's spent half a million dollars and I've spent hardly anything. My media starts Thursday."
Cooksey believes targeted television, in combination with a broad organization of campaigners across the state, will be the difference between today's numbers and the final ones.
"She's trying to make it with media," Cooksey said, referring to Terrell. "I'm trying to make it with a grassroots organization."
If anyone knows about grassroots, it's trailing GOP candidate Perkins. His 6 percent in the Mason-Dixon poll is expected, he said.
"I'm right where I need to be," Perkins said. "I have told our people all along we'll be trailing in the polls because our voters don't poll. They don't respond to them."
Perkins' campaign tends to draw a different kind of voter than the ones attracted to the other GOP candidates. He's working with a network of organizations across the state to reach that "disenfranchised" voter.
"My voters are going to turn out because they want to vote for me," Perkins said. "It's not about voting against Mary Landrieu for them. They believe in my positions. We're very confident in what we're doing."
Another poll released Tuesday had similar results to Mason-Dixon.
Southern Media and Opinion Research of Baton Rouge, which polls for some television stations, had Landrieu at 45 percent, Terrell at 15.5 percent, Cooksey at 9 percent, Perkins at 4 percent, the others with minimal support and 25 percent undecided.
SMOR polled 600 voters from Oct. 11-16. The poll has a 4 percent margin of error. "If you give Mary her share of the undecided vote, she wins," said SMOR's Bernie Pinsonat. "It's a question of voter turnout."
Pinsonat said it's not surprising Cooksey has slipped into third place, since he has not begun any television advertising while Terrell and the national Republicans who endorsed her have heavy pro-Terrell buys in all markets.
"Terrell has the inside track in getting into a runoff," Coker said. "The Republicans seem to be going her way. That alone, and her money advantage, is probably enough to hold off Cooksey."
Cooksey, who has the backing of Gov. Mike Foster, could edge past Terrell only if he can convince white Democrats and independents to vote for him, Cooker said.
The poll showed the highest undecided vote in Acadiana - 17 percent versus 12 percent statewide. The Acadiana region is the area both Terrell and Cooksey said is key to a Republican runoff victory, and one area Cooksey is focusing on with the help of Foster supporters.
If there is a runoff regardless of who she faces, Landrieu is not an automatic shoo-in, Coker said.
"Any time you get an incumbent into a runoff, it changes the dynamic. The incumbent is seen as wounded," Coker said. "If the Senate is split and this race is what the balance of power hinges on, you will see every major political operative descend on Louisiana. It will be just like the 1991 David Duke-Edwin Edwards' governor's runoff."
Coming Thursday
Tune into the first debate to feature all four leading senatorial candidates. Sponsored by Louisiana Public Broadcasting, Louisiana Gannett Newspapers and the Council for A Better Louisiana, it also is the only debate to be televised statewide. The forum will begin at 7 p.m. and will be aired live on all LPB (local Public Broadcasting) stations and locally on radio, on KEEL 710 AM.
Also in Thursday's Times, learn a little about the five other candidates vying for the Senate seat.
That's some good news, for sure. Cooksey damaged himself pretty good, so his chances in a run-off would be slim to none IMHO. Now if we can just get the Pubbies to turn out on Nov. 5th and vote for Terrell (or at least anybody but Landrieu). I think Landrieu would certainly have the advantage in a run-off, but it would be fun to watch. :-)
| Statewide | ||
| Number of Registered Voters | ||
| Total | 2,776,951 | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| White | 1,869,216 | 67.31% |
| Black | 810,358 | 29.18% |
| Other | 97,377 | 3.51% |
| Democrats | ||
| Total | 1,613,443 | 58.10% |
| White | 920,981 | 57.08% |
| Black | 663,760 | 41.14% |
| Other | 28,702 | 1.78% |
| Republicans | ||
| Total | 637,427 | 22.95% |
| White | 588,988 | 92.40% |
| Black | 28,477 | 4.47% |
| Other | 19,962 | 3.13% |
| Other Parties | ||
| Total | 526,081 | 18.94% |
| White | 359,247 | 56.36% |
| Black | 118,121 | 18.53% |
| Other | 48,713 | 7.64% |
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Bush Carried LA 54-46. These means Landreiu is getting less than Gore. The CW is that a canidate seeking re-election getting less than 50% in the polls is in big trouble. However, LA has a unique system, so I don't know what this means.
However, this is still the land of the relentlessly moderate David Duke. So, it hard not to see a Republican eventually winning a Senate seat.
Yes many registered democrats will vote republican but LA still hasn't elected a Senator of the Republican stripe. They have elected some statewide offices up to and including the Governor as republican. Terrell has won statewide so maybe she can pull it off if she is the one to get into the runoff. I like the picture ID requirement as it may help reduce fraud.
With some luck if they can get Ms Brown Roots into a runoff then maybe she can be defeated. It certainly will bring the national powers into LA and tons of money will be spent along with a huge media circus.
This year is a bit different as Bush is not on the top of the ballot. But, if we consider how Bush has out stepped the Democrats at every turn since September 11, it is hard not to see him coming out ahead in the congressional election as well, despite the historical disadvantage for the White House party.
My predictions is that the Republicans will pick up three seats in the Senate, and will hold to the majority in the House.
Gosh I hope you are spot on with your predictions.... Would you care to name the Senate seats you think the Republicans will win to pick up that majority. I do agree with you on the House and think it will remain Republican.
The next 10 days or so will go a long way to defining the outcomes I think....
SD and MN are leaning our way. The DemoRAT's are below 45 in both cases which is both news for anyone seeking re-election.
NJ and GA are not impossibilities.
CO looks good.
We will have to compensate for a loss in AR
It is difinetly time to elect a Republican Senator in LA
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