Landrieu on verge of winning Nov. 5, pollster says [LA Senate]

KPLC-TV ^ | 10/22/02 | Theresa Schmidt

[BlackRazor]

Landrieu on verge of winning Nov. 5, pollster says

Date: October 22, 2002

Reporter: Theresa Schmidt

Pollster Bernie Pinsonat says Senator Mary Landrieu is on the verge of winning in the November primary if she can hold on to her white vote in the final two weeks and get a large turnout of blacks.

A poll taken and paid for by Pinsonat's firm, Southern Media and Opinion Research, says Landrieu has 45-point-one percent and her closest opponent, Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, has 15-and-a-half percent. With 24-point-six percent of the vote undecided, Pinsonat says Landrieu only needs five percent of that segment which includes a large number of black women. Congressman John Cooksey has nine-point-one percent and state Representative Tony Perkins, four-point-two percent. Five other candidates share just over one percent. The polling company interviewed 600 registered voters from October eleventh through last Thursday.

All were asked who they would vote for if the election was held today. Pinsonat says the poll has a four percentage-point margin of error either way.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[RoseofTexas]

Would appreciate if you would state which party Landrieu is with...:)

[rep-always]

Democrats.

[copycat]

Thought Cooksey was more of a player than this.

[copycat]

Thought Cooksey was more of a player than this.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I think the fact that Brown Roots is still under 50% is very good news. There is a large percentage of undecideds, but that's because a lot of people haven't decided which of the three Pubbies to vote for.

[KQQL]

@

[Tall_Texan]

And how is a pollster of 600 registered voters able to determine that the biggest block of undecideds are black females? I think they are trying to put makeup on this pig.

[Torie]

The undecided black women thing is odd. I suspect they won't vote unless assisted. Of course, non voters pushes that 45% up. Landrieu should make it if she has a good get out the vote effort.

[Tall_Texan]

Maybe instead of a "large number of black women", he meant "a number of large black women."

[deport]

It will be a shame if 8 other candidates can't hold Ms. Mary below 50% but it's very possible they won't. The other candidates include: one other democrat; 4 Republicans; three whatevers (independents I guess).

[deport]

I guess they were the ones home answering the phone that day......

LA now requires a picture ID to vote so that may cut down somewhat on the voting irregularities that were talked about in her election 6 yrs ago.

[M. Thatcher]

Senator Mary Landrieu is on the verge of winning in the November primary

The November primary? Maybe her constituents think the election is next year.

[deport]

The November primary?

That's correct...... Runoff is Dec. 7, if needed.

[deport]

The real tale of the tape in LA.....

Statewide
Number of Registered Voters
Total	2,776,951	Percent
White	1,869,216	67.31%
Black	810,358	29.18%
Other	97,377	3.51%
Democrats
Total	1,613,443	58.10%
White	920,981	57.08%
Black	663,760	41.14%
Other	28,702	1.78%
Republicans
Total	637,427	22.95%
White	588,988	92.40%
Black	28,477	4.47%
Other	19,962	3.13%
Other Parties
Total	526,081	18.94%
White	359,247	56.36%
Black	118,121	18.53%
Other	48,713	7.64%

http://www.gcr1.com/der/

[Bogey78O]

Louisiana uses an open primary system where in November any candidate that can make the ballot can run. After the election the top two vote getters then run against each other unless one has 50%+1. So you can theoretically have 2 Republicans or 2 Democrats run against each other.

[M. Thatcher]

Ah. Thanks for the info.

[Coop]

With 24-point-six percent of the vote undecided, Pinsonat says Landrieu only needs five percent of that segment

That's a bit misleading. Landrieu needs to pull about one-fifth of the undecideds to win, assuming this poll is accurate.

[mewzilla]

Uh, two points: Small sample of voters, and registered voters were polled, not likely voters. Ignore the poll.