Posted on 10/22/2002 9:45:57 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll: Governor's Race In Dead Heat
POSTED: 10:52 a.m. EDT October 22, 2002
UPDATED: 11:47 a.m. EDT October 22, 2002
ANNAPOLIS, Md. -- In our commitment 2002 report, a new poll Tuesday from Gonzales-Arscott research puts the two main candidates for governor in a statistical dead heat.
According to the poll, 46 percent of likely voters said they'd vote for Rep. Congressman Bob Ehrlich while 45 percent said they'd vote for Dem. Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.
The margin of error is 3.5 percent.
Yet another poll showing a deadlocked Maryland gubernatorial race.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
They're already playing games. They're whining about the potential light voter turnout in Montgomery County because of the shooting incidents and how that will hurt the 'RATS. They'll probably want to "assume" voter turnout and adjust the numbers accordingly.
yeah but what is the margin of cheating? (the percentage of illegal votes the Dem's will come up with)
It might have stopped his momentum, though. Montgomery County residents tend to think with their gonads.. I had him winning by 6 ot 7 points before the sniper mullah got here. Now, I'm not sure.
Give Ehrlich credit for running a very good campaign. I still doubt he'll win, since all the tombstones in Baltimore will vote early and often to put Ms. K-T over the top. But in a state like Maryland, it's amazing that a Republican actually has a shot a winning a statewide office....
Let the good times roll!
Here's more detailed info from the pollster's (Gonzales Arscott) website on the Maryland results (including the MD-02 and MD-08 House races):
Gubernatorial Election
Wow, is this ever close! Republican Bob Ehrlich holds on to a razor-thin lead over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, 46% to 45%, with 7% undecided. Libertarian Spear Lancaster polls at 1% of the statewide vote. Each major candidate slipped one point after a month of intense campaigning.
Ehrlich stretched his lead on the Eastern Shore from 53% to 38% in September to 57% to 32% in this survey, and widened the gap in Western Maryland from 57% to 36% last month to 61% to 30% two weeks before Election Day. Ehrlich enjoys a 2-to-1 advantage over Townsend in the Baltimore suburbs (60% to 31%), but slid a little off the 62% share of the vote he held in the September poll. Townsend solidified her grip on Baltimore City (74% to 20%), where she gained five points and Ehrlich dropped six. Voters in the Washington region were more stable, with Ehrlich losing, and Townsend gaining, just one point each (Townsend 59%, Ehrlich 33%).
Townsend gained a point among men (39% to 38%), but lost three points with women (55% to 52%). Conversely, Ehrlich gained a point with women (38% to 39%), but lost three points with men (55% to 52%). Ehrlich's share of the white vote is unchanged at 57%; Townsend's is down to 33% from 35% in September. And Townsend looks to have gotten the black vote back – Ehrlich's share is down to 11% (from 14%), and hers is up to 83% (from 81%).
Democrats and Republicans are holding pretty steady, with the candidates trading a point a piece between the Ds and Rs. Ehrlich holds a super-majority of Republicans (86%, down from 87%) and a quarter of the Democrats (25%, up from 24%). Townsend has 68% of the Democratic vote (down from 69%), and 8% of Republicans (up from 7%). But the independents remain volatile, with 39% going for Ehrlich, 34% for Townsend, 3% for Lancaster, and 24% undecided.
A month of negative advertising has taken its toll on the name ID number of both major candidates (and also, probably, citizen goodwill toward politics in general). Ehrlich's positives slipped from 44% to 43%, but his negatives jumped from 21% to 33% since the September survey. Townsend, however, is in worse shape, with positives at 42% and negatives at 39% (up from 35%). Libertarian Spear Lancaster is unknown to 77% of the electorate.
In a race this close, the final outcome can hinge on literally anything: A small misstep, a particularly good ad, an unexpected endorsement, rain on Election Day. The relatively small group of undecided voters seem to tilt slightly toward Ehrlich two weeks before the election: His favorables among this group are a little higher and the issue stances among undecided voters reflect his positions a bit more.
On paper Townsend has had almost everything in her favor, with a near 2-to-1 party advantage, universal recognition throughout the campaign, and enough funds to start a country. But it now seems possible for Ehrlich to win this election, while falling short of his initial goals of capturing 20% of the black vote and garnering over 40% in the DC suburbs. Townsend and her campaign have been very effective since the primary stymieing Ehrlich with these two important voter blocks. But will she end up winning the battle and losing the war?
Most Important Issue
Maryland's ballooning budget deficit (24%) remains the Number One issue facing our next governor, named by nearly a quarter of survey respondents, and up from 23% in September. Among voters undecided in the governor's race, the budget deficit looms even larger, named by 32%.
Education is second once again at 19% (down from 21%), and crime and illegal drugs take third position at 10% (up from 8%). In single digits are the economy and traffic/transportation tied at 9%, health care and prescription drugs at 8%, and taxes at 6%. Lesser concerns were gun control (5%), the environment (3%), the DC sniper shootings (2%), and growth/development (1%). The remaining 4% gave no answer.
Gun Control
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend recently called for expanding Maryland's ballistic fingerprinting law to include rifles, while Bob Ehrlich has remarked that a few of Maryland existing gun laws should be reexamined to judge their effectiveness. Maryland voters have their own opinions: Fifty-three percent agreed that "[w]e already have enough gun control laws – we need to better enforce the laws already on the books." Thirty-six percent statewide felt that "[w]e need more and stronger gun control laws." Eight percent took the opposite view, that "[w]e have too many gun control laws now." The remaining 3% gave no answer.
Better enforcement of existing laws is the favored position in every demographic subgroup in the survey, except among Democrats and residents of the Washington suburbs. Fifty percent of Democrats, and 54% of voters in the DC suburbs, say we need more and stronger gun control laws. Among undecided voters, just 31% opt for more and stronger laws, with 61% saying that we need better enforcement of existing gun control statutes.
2nd Congressional District
Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger has opened up a four point lead, 47% to 43%, over former Congresswoman Helen Delich Bentley in the race to succeed Bob Ehrlich in Maryland 2nd Congressional District. Ruppersberger led by two points, 45% to 43%, in our July survey. Ten percent are undecided.
The biggest change over the last three months is in Bentley's favorable name ID. It's been knocked back 14 points, from 63% to 49%, while her negatives shot from 18% to 31%. Ruppersberger's favorables are up five points to 47%, as are his negatives, from 26% in July to 32% in October.
Bentley is holding her own with the District's Democrats, but has lost ground among independents to Ruppersberger. His share of the independent vote is up ten points, from 27% to 37%, while hers in down six points, from 47% to 41%. Even more significant is Ruppersberger's standing with Republicans. He has nearly doubled his take, from 10% to 19% since July, while Bentley slipped from 76% to 74%. In a district that is 65% Democratic, Bentley can ill afford to lose a fifth of her base, even if she takes 31% of the Democrats from Ruppersberger.
8th Congressional District
In July, before the primary, Congresswoman Connie Morella was handily beating all comers in her quest to retain her seat in the 8th Congressional District. In October, the contest is no longer hypothetical, and Morella is locked in a tight race with State Senator Chris Van Hollen, leading him 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided.
Morella once stratospheric positives are a little closer to earth now, down to 56% from 64% in July – still enviable – but the campaign has clearly taken a toll on her image, as her negatives have more than doubled, from 8% to 20%. Van Hollen's numbers are nearly identical – 57% positive, 21% negative.
Morella is holding 80% of the Republicans, capturing 27% of Democrats, and 46% of the independents. Her numbers with women stand at 39%. Van Hollen gets the support of 48% of women. Morella, however, holds a wider lead among men, 49% to 36%. Van Hollen gets 48% of the black vote to Morella's 20%, with nearly a third of African-American voters (32%) undecided as the campaign enters its final weeks.
In July, 30% of the District's Democratic voters said that their party's control of the House of Representatives would not affect their vote for Congress. In order to emerge the winner on November 5th, Morella must convince those voters that their initial instincts were right, and Van Hollen must persuade them that they were wrong.
afterall, you want to protect those poor voters...
since the sniper/murderer specifically said he was targeting children, I guess the Dem. Gov. doesn't think children are as important as a few more RAT voters.....
My lord....is there a link to those?
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