Posted on 10/21/2002 7:56:01 PM PDT by Shermy
HONGKONG - World attention is likely to focus this week on what one Chinese newspaper has described as 'the most significant hour in Sino-US summitry'.
According to Global Times, a paper affiliated to the authoritative People's Daily, that will be the one hour when Chinese President Jiang Zemin and his American counterpart George W. Bush will be alone with one interpreter each.
They will talk in complete privacy on board a boat on a lake in the US leader's ranch in Crawford, Texas, where Mr Jiang is scheduled to arrive on Thursday.
If history is any guide, the two leaders, who will be meeting for a third time this year, are likely to arrive at tacit agreement on some highly significant issues.
In 1979, when paramount leader Deng Xiaoping visited the US, he briefed President Jimmy Carter about his plan 'to teach Vietnam a lesson' when they met one to one.
Soon afterwards, China attacked Vietnam. The US, fresh from its Vietnamese debacle, was more than willing to help, albeit indirectly, by providing the Chinese with intelligence on any troop movements by the Soviet Union, then Vietnam's key military backer.
Given this precedent, it is not inconceivable that when Messrs Jiang and Bush have their tete-a-tete, they might hammer out some major quid pro quo deals.
Most observers believe that Mr Jiang would offer a Chinese abstention in any United Nations Security Council voting on resolutions aimed at giving the US cover for its planned attacks against Iraq - in return for a US pledge not to support any Taiwanese move towards independence.
China might even go so far as to say it will resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully, provided that the US will declare, on its part, not to arm or co-defend the island.
Some observers say Beijing is confident that once the US commits itself to strict neutrality, there will not be any need for China to resort to force.
There are grounds for optimism. As this is likely to be Mr Jiang's last visit to the US as China's top leader, he will not embark on it if he is not sure of an outcome that can be presented as the crowning achivement to round off his watch.
The US appears keen to help him preserve his legacy.
A recent New York Times editorial urged the US President to do exactly that, in view of Mr Jiang's strong pro-American stance.
If the US does do a deal on Taiwan, it would go a long way to entrench the largely pro-American diplomatic stance adopted by the Chinese leadership thus far.
The summit will take place amid the emergence of a more mature view on China's part towards the US.
According to the latest issue of Xuexi Shibao, a publication run by the Central Party School since September 1999 to help cadres understand government policies, Vice-Premier Qian Qichen has identified three constants in Sino-American relations.
First, there is a solid base for bilateral cooperation because both are leading countries and depend on each other to develop their respective economy.
Second, basic contradictions between them will stay for a long time because both have very different ideological and political systems.
Third, the dual nature of American policy towards China 'characterised by the periodic swing of mood between containment to engagement' will continue to cause ups and downs in bilateral relations.
It is thus better for China to play smart and not be blinded by needless fury, he argues, adding that China should focus unswervingly on economic development.
This more mature view towards the US explains Beijing's optimism about the Crawford summit.
The US is also very upbeat.
Its ambassador to Beijing, Mr Clark Randt, told Chinese television prior to Mr Jiang's trip that bilateral relations 'have never been better' and that 'there is not one single one in the Bush administration that is anti-China''.
A quiet deal to resolve the Taiwan problem peacefully will remove the largest single obstacle to better bilateral ties.
Until now, relations are riddled with periodic testy exchanges, with Washington warning Beijing not to bully Taipei, and Beijing warning the US, in turn, to keep its hands off Taiwan.
A tangible result of the visit this week could be the resumption of military-to-military contacts, suspended after the 2001 EP-3 incident in which a US spy plane collided with a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of south China.
China might also ask for the suspension of the ban on the transfer of US technology, imposed since the Tiananmen Incident 13 years ago.
That incident has had American attention locked ever since on China's human rights record. Mr Jiang is likely to request less harping on the matter.
Encouraged by the outcome of recent talks between Beijing and the Dalai Lama's envoys, the US is likely to press for direct dialogue between them.
It is also expected to press for strict Chinese adherence to World Trade Organisation rules on opening up its market to American exporters. President Bush is known for raising very specific crop issues with Mr Jiang.
On the international front, further cooperation in anti-terrorism, stepped up efforts by China to curb missile exports, including exerting influences on North Korea to decommission the latter's nuclear weapons, are likely to top the agenda.
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