Posted on 10/21/2002 6:05:54 AM PDT by IMRight
As we noted in August, few incumbents are likely to be defeated in next month's elections. So if the Democrats are going to retake the House, they'll need to score major open-seat gains. While they have more opportunities than the GOP, they don't appear likely to succeed. Here is where we stand only a couple of weeks before Election Day. The most likely partisan switches come first, but each race on this list is a potential turnover.
1. Michigan 10th. Democratic Rep. David Bonior's open seat will likely be won by Michigan Secretary of State Candice Miller (R). Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) looked like a formidable contender, but polling shows Miller over 50 percent and overwhelming the Democrat.
2. Ohio 3rd. Former Dayton Mayor Mike Turner (R) is a prohibitive favorite over Rick Carne (D), who served as former Rep. Tony Hall's (D) chief of staff. The district was made much more Republican by the Legislature, and Carne simply hasn't gotten enough traction.
3. Georgia 3rd. Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay (R) faces former Macon Mayor Jim Marshall (D) in a redrawn district, which is currently represented by Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R). Republicans hope that Marshall, who lost to Chambliss in 2000, is too liberal for district voters, but the district clearly leans Democratic.
4. Tennessee 4th. State Sen. Lincoln Davis (D) is favored over Republican Janice
Bowling, in part because the Democratic-controlled Legislature redrew the district to elect him. But recent polling shows Davis isn't doing nearly as well as expected, and both the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are now spending money in the race. It's still Davis' to lose.
5. Georgia 11th. This district trends Democratic, and Roger Kahn (D) has enough money to buy three or four districts. But Dr. Phil Gingrey (R) is a credible candidate, and GOP polling shows the race surprisingly close. Can Republicans convince voters that Kahn is too liberal? Suddenly, a sure-fire Democratic win looks in doubt.
6. South Dakota At-Large. Young attorney Stephanie Herseth (D) is running neck-and-neck with Gov. Bill Janklow (R) in the race to succeed Rep. John Thune (R). Janklow has near-total name recognition, but he is still far under the 50 percent mark. If he isn't at it right before Election Day, he's in trouble.
7. Maryland 2nd. Former Rep. Helen Delich Bentley (R) faces Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger (D) in a district left open because Rep. Bob Ehrlich (R) is running for governor. Redistricting was expected to hand this seat to the Democrats, but Bentley has always had appeal among blue-collar Democrats, and Ruppersberger created some enemies as county executive. Polling shows Bentley running about even with him.
8. Indiana 2nd. Each party has a poll showing it's headed to win retiring Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer's redrawn district. Former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D) faces businessman Chris Chocola (R), who lost to Roemer two years ago. The district was made more Democratic but still tilts slightly Republican. Still, if the Democratic message about Social Security and corporate accountability works anywhere, it should work there.
9. Maine 2nd. State Sen. Mike Michaud (D), a pro-life Democrat with strong union backing, and Kevin Raye (R), a pro-choice moderate and former aide to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), are in a battle. Michaud initially opened up a lead, but it disappeared when the GOP began pouring money into the district and attacking. But now Michaud is on the attack (and on the rebound), and Democrats remain hopeful about holding the district.
10. New Mexico 2nd. State Sen. John Arthur Smith (D) is a moderate who fits the district pretty well, but conservative former state Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is doing everything he can to paint Smith as too liberal. Democrats are hoping that a big Hispanic turnout will help Democrats running throughout the state, but Smith doesn't have the resources to compete. Rep. Joe Skeen (R) is retiring from Congress.
11. Alabama 3rd. Unsuccessful 1998 nominee Joe Turnham (D) won a competitive primary and is battling state Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in Republican Rep. Bob Riley's open seat. The district was made considerably more Democratic by redistricting, and Turnham got off to a much better start than he did four years ago. But his fundraising has trailed off dramatically, and he showed little cash in the bank on Sept. 30. Money could well be the difference in this race, helping Rogers win the open seat.
12. (tie) New Hampshire 1st. Martha Fuller Clark (D) has a big financial advantage, but state Rep. Jeb Bradley is a moderate Republican who seems to fit the district nicely. Bradley and the NRCC probably have enough money to hold off Clark, whose negatives are rising.
12. (tie) New Jersey 5th. Republican Rep. Marge Roukema's retirement shouldn't be that much of a problem for the GOP given this district's clear Republican bent. But conservative state Assemblyman Scott Garrett (R) has been unimpressive. Now, finally, his ads are starting to take a toll on Democrat Anne Sumers.
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