Posted on 10/21/2002 5:43:51 AM PDT by Libloather
WASHINGTON TODAY: Democratic presidential hopefuls have hard time getting respect
Sun Oct 20,12:10 AM ET
By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - Democratic presidential candidates had hoped to use the November election spotlight to propel their White House aspirations. Instead, President Bush's popularity is keeping them in the shadows.
While Bush steers voters' attention to homeland security and a potential war with Iraq, Democratic leaders have failed thus far to convince Americans that Bush is to blame for the sagging economy.
Indeed, Democrats lack the ingredient cherished by presidential hopefuls in past midterm elections: a unifying theme.
"There is not the `great divide' that candidates from the opposing party often speak to in the midterms," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.
In a recent Gallup poll on Democratic candidates, 47 percent of those surveyed said they had an unfavorable view of Al Gore, the party's White House nominee in 2000, to 46 percent favorable.
House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Mo., scored a 40 percent favorable and a 23 percent unfavorable. The rest either had never heard of him or had no opinion.
Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., got 39 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable.
Other Democratic hopeful barely register in national polls.
At this time in 1998, George W. Bush was coasting toward an easy re-election as Texas governor and already was the presumptive GOP favorite for the 2000 presidential race.
Ronald Reagan took $1 million in leftover funds from his 1976 presidential bid to establish what he called "Citizens for the Republic." It enabled him to travel the country in 1978 on behalf of GOP candidates, for an important advantage going into the 1980 election.
In 1994, Rep. Newt Gingrich of Georgia united Republicans behind his "Contract with America," helping them win control of Congress and catapulting him into the House speakership. While Gingrich was later engulfed in scandals of his own, for a time in 1995 he commanded almost as much national attention as President Clinton and had credible designs on a presidential race of his own.
Bush, Reagan and Gingrich took advantage of a calm political climate — or shaped the landscape to their benefit.
So far this year, Bush has dominated the stage while his would-be challengers stand in the wings.
"If a Democratic leader like Daschle or Gephardt comes out against the president on Iraq, they hurt members of their own party in midterm elections," said GOP pollster Frank Luntz. "This is a rare situation."
While Gore criticized Bush's Iraq policy, other Democratic presidential hopefuls have steered away from such a course.
Gephardt, Daschle and Sens. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, John Edwards of North Carolina and John Kerry of Massachusetts all wound up voting to give Bush authority to use force against Iraq, although with differing degrees of enthusiasm.
Inability to criticize the president on national security issues is making it even harder for Democratic hopefuls to establish themselves in voters' minds.
Talk of potential war with Iraq "is preventing many prospective candidates from making the economy the central issue," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.
With three weeks to go before the Nov. 5 elections, Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) and House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., have been campaigning almost nonstop and raising millions for Republicans.
Bush was planning to put more attention on economic themes in the coming days, GOP officials said, possibly blunting Democratic attempts to claim the issue as their own.
The president is traveling two more than two dozen states in the last two weeks of the campaign in hopes of preventing Democratic gains.
Major Democratic victories would be a blow to Bush and would boost the political prospects of potential challengers, particularly congressional leaders Daschle and Gephardt.
But there are relatively few close races this year — about a half dozen in the Senate and around 40 in the House. While historical trends suggest a loss of seats by the president's party, most analysts do not expect a Democratic rout.
Democrats privately concede Bush's popularity — his approval ratings are hovering at or near 70 percent — makes it difficult to get much political traction at this time for the 2004 presidential race.
Mellman said potential Democratic candidates "are all out there. They may not be getting the same level of news coverage as Cheney or Bush being out there.
"But the reality is — it doesn't matter," he said. "They don't get much leverage with the public. But they do get leverage with party insiders. And that's what counts right now."
EDITOR'S NOTE — Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.