NBC 5 Exclusive: Voter's Poll Part II
Sanchez's strategy against Perry: get out Hispanic vote
Posted on 10/20/2002 4:07:42 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP
Sanchez's strategy against Perry: get out Hispanic vote
He needs 'huge turnout' in campaign without issues, expert says
10/20/2002
Democrat Tony Sanchez's best hope to close the gap on Gov. Rick Perry will be to turn out Hispanics, his core supporters who have yet to be pumped up by his expensive and historic campaign, according to voting experts and a new poll.
The Sanchez get-out-the-vote strategy, analysts say, will have to push hard on the traditional phone banks, door-to-door canvassing and Spanish-language TV ads. The effort could draw a record number of Hispanics to the polls, but it may not be enough to make a difference.
"He needs a huge turnout, and he needs a huge turnout in certain areas of the state, especially in South Texas," said Andy Hernandez, a political science professor at St. Mary's University in San Antonio. "The campaign has been run very negatively. It's been issueless, and I think people already have made up their minds, one way or other."
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A record 2.5 million Hispanics are among this year's 12.5 million registered voters in Texas. Officials with the Willie C. Velásquez Institute, which tracks Hispanic voter trends, projects that turnout among Hispanics could hit 40 percent - a record for a Texas gubernatorial election.
Getting to that figure will be a challenge, meaning the Sanchez camp will have to continue to pound the streets and not let up on his advertisements, including those in Spanish.
The Democrat has aired a barrage of Spanish-language ads on TV and radio. His spending for Spanish ads reached at least $1.2 million through Oct. 4, a Johns Hopkins University study says.
He has reported spending $36 million on broadcast advertising overall, in English and Spanish, through September.
The study said Spanish-language ads in the Senate race between Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Ron Kirk are largely nonexistent in Texas' large media markets.
Good news, bad news
Mr. Sanchez has carried most of the message in his ads, speaking in folksy Spanish - with traditional ranchera music in the background - as he talks of the future for Texas.
In some, he's dressed in a business suit as the ad talks about how he has created jobs as a businessman. In others, he's dressed casually as he talks about education and the importance of family.
"I know that I've done a lot in Spanish, and I think it's playing real well," Mr. Sanchez said.
He hasn't won over everyone.
"I've got mixed feelings about Tony Sanchez and his campaign," said Jesse Moreno, who owns La Popular Tamale House in East Dallas. "There are a lot of other Hispanics who say we've got to support him because he's Hispanic, but I ask them if they know how he stands on the issues. That should be the important part."
But Johnny Rangel, 36, of Dallas said he thinks little of Mr. Perry's work as governor and is supporting Mr. Sanchez.
"He's Hispanic, and I support Hispanics," said Mr. Rangel, who works at an auto parts store. "I think there has been too much negative advertising against Mr. Sanchez, and I don't think it's true and I don't think Rick Perry has done a good job as governor."
A new survey by The Dallas Morning News has Mr. Perry ahead by 15 percentage points, but he lags among Hispanics.
The governor's spending on Spanish-language ads was estimated at $280,000, according to the university report. His overall broadcast advertising has cost $11.7 million through September.
Mr. Perry's spots have shown him with Hispanic blue-collar workers, with one saying in Spanish that Mr. Perry is one of them and relates with those who improve their lives by working hard.
Phone banks for both parties have been hard at work, pursuing Hispanic voters earlier than usual.
"You ask Hispanic voters how many times they were contacted in the last [gubernatorial] election and they may say, 'Once,' " Dr. Hernandez said. "You ask them the same question with this election and they will say, 'Five or six times.' "
A benefit for Sanchez
Mr. Sanchez could benefit from a plethora of Hispanics in congressional, legislative and local elections who will attract voters on Election Day, said Ricardo Castañon, Texas regional director for the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project in San Antonio.
"More Latinos going to the polls, regardless of the outcome, is what we care about," he said. "We have seen Latino voters and candidates facing each other, and that's good."
Hispanic registration has been boosted this year by efforts of nonprofit groups, including the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project in San Antonio, coalitions of ecumenical groups and the political parties.
But registration in the Republican counties of Denton and Collin outpaced registration in the largely Hispanic counties of Bexar, Cameron, El Paso, Hidalgo and Webb by almost 16,000 new voters.
Republicans also are making inroads in South Texas. George W. Bush carried Hidalgo County in his 1998 re-election as governor by 6 percentage points.
"There is a lot of the Hispanic vote that is not going to be straight-ticket Democrat. I find it very offensive people see us that way," said Carlos Cascos, 50, a lame-duck Democratic Cameron County commissioner supporting Mr. Perry.
"I'm going to vote for some Democrats and I'm going to vote for some Republicans. This is not about being Hispanic, about the potential for the first Hispanic governor ... it's about voting for the best-qualified candidate."
E-mail dsedeno@dallasnews.com
Excerpts:--"I've got mixed feelings about Tony Sanchez and his campaign," said Jesse Moreno, who owns La Popular Tamale House in East Dallas. "There are a lot of other Hispanics who say we've got to support him because he's Hispanic, but I ask them if they know how he stands on the issues. That should be the important part."
--"He's Hispanic, and I support Hispanics," said Mr. Rangel, who works at an auto parts store.
--Mr. Sanchez could benefit from a plethora of Hispanics in congressional, legislative and local elections who will attract voters on Election Day, said Ricardo Castañon, Texas regional director for the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project in San Antonio.
"More Latinos going to the polls, regardless of the outcome, is what we care about," he said. "We have seen Latino voters and candidates facing each other, and that's good."
So it sounds to me like Sanchez is hoping for a large Hispanic voter turnout in which folks voting for local Hispanics will see his name on the ballot and vote for him too, because he's Hispanic? He's riding local Hispanic coattails? Am I reading this right?
I'll be voting early - this week - but I'm not voting for Perry because he's white. I'll vote straight GOP, whether the candidate is male or female, White, Hispanic, Black, Asian, or other ethnicity. I want to take back the Senate and will support the GOP fully. Just mho......
I'll post the latest link and poll on Texas races shortly. There's one from NBC and one from the Dallas Morning News. I'll post both.
Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my Texas ping list!. . .don't be shy.
No, you don't HAVE to be a Texan to get on this list!
I also have asked Hispanic families who they were voting for, they said tony, because he's Hispanic....sad
Also, nearly half of those polled said they think both campaigns are using "unfair" campaign ads.
The poll was conducted from October 8 through October 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
"…who do you think you would vote for if the election were held today?"
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State |
North Texas | East Texas | South Texas | Central Texas | West Texas | |
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| Democrat Tony Sanchez, Jr. | 34% | 36% | 33% | 39% | 28% | 21% |
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| Republican Rick Perry | 48% | 46% | 51% | 41% | 50% | 64% |
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| Undecided | 17% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 13% |
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State |
Male | Female | White | Hisp | Afri-Amer | |
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| Democrat Tony Sanchez, Jr. | 34% | 32% | 35% | 21% | 52% | 64% |
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| Republican Rick Perry | 48% | 52% | 45% | 65% | 25% | 10% |
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| Undecided | 17% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 25% |
U.S. Senate
"…who do you think you would vote for if the election were held today?"
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State |
N. Texas | E. Texas | S. Texas | Central Texas | W. Texas | |
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| (D)Ron Kirk | 36% | 40% | 34% | 36% | 40% | 26% |
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| (R)John Cornyn | 46% | 47% | 46% | 43% | 42% | 60% |
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| Undecided | 16% | 11% | 19% | 21% | 15% | 13% |
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State |
Male | Female | White | Hispanic | Afri-Amer. | |
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| (D) Ron Kirk | 36% | 33% | 39% | 25% | 46% | 73% |
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| (R) John Cornyn | 46% | 51% | 43% | 60% | 33% | 6% |
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| Undecided | 16% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 19% |
GOP leading in top two races - Texas Senate and Governor Races
Dallas Morning News Poll Link:
Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/latestnews/stories/102002dntexdmnpoll.3b1f5.html
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More like ... "2.5 million Hispanics makeup 12.5 million registered voters in Texas"
" turnout among Hispanics could hit 40 percent " ... that should read 240%... someone is forgetting the dead...votes....LOL ! Thanks for the lead-in. Now I can post this.....
This is just a glimpse of the future of Texas. Many that vote will be illegal, but just think after the election and the amnesty is passed ----
Bonilla is proof these hispanic voters aren't the wonderful Conservatives some people claim. They even have a Conservative Hispanic and they don't vote for him. Too many hispanics are pro-abortion, pro-welfare, pro-everything-liberal. Some of the Chicano groups make the Black groups look Conservative.
A Hispanic guy I work with even claims to be a Republican and is trying to get everyone to vote for Sanchez, he says Sanchez will get the money from the rich Texans and finally get some help for the poor border residents because he understands the needs of the border (which is to have more welfare money and programs).
Of course, they endorsed Ron Kirk today and John Sharp, so it's not as if they forgot their liberal roots.
If so, it's news to me. 
I hope somone is telling Hispanics that Sanchez is nothing but a crook.
He's so crooked he has to screw his pants on in the morning.....
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The Houston Chronicle endorsed Rick Perry yesterday. End of Sanchez campaign.Well, there's a classic good news/bad news line. Did they say why they picked Kirk and Sharp over the GOP?Of course, they endorsed Ron Kirk today and John Sharp, so it's not as if they forgot their liberal roots.
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