Wednesday, 10/16, Market WrapUp (Are We At the Bottom Yet?)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/16/2002 | James J. Puplava

[rohry]

"I enjoy this guy's articles but I'm curious, what was he saying in 1998? Is he always bearish?"

I don't know. I started reading him in June 2000...

[dalereed]

"When everyone is out of their mutual funds and when the industry has shrunk to a shadow of its former size, when dividend yields are at 6-7%, PE multiples are down to 7"

This is exactly what I was taught in college in 1955 was an investment,

[nicksaunt]

I look for this post every night and have learned a lot from Jim's columns. Thanks so much for your preserverance, it is appreciated!

[imawit]

Keep it up. Us wise guys like it. You can't survive without knowing the truth and what's behind it.

[razorback-bert]

Here is an important article (SafeMoneyReport)
Housing To Hit The Skids

The real estate bubble has been expanding for a few years now, but it's about to pop. Demand for homes has fallen steadily over the past few months. For the third month in a row, purchase applications for new homes were down -- falling to their lowest level in six months! And plans for home purchases six months from now declined as well.

Scared-stiff consumers have clearly pared down their plans for major purchases -- and a home is the most major purchase of all! Even low mortgage rates haven't helped boost buying plans. Rates plunged to their lowest level on record, according to Freddie Mac, yet consumers haven't flooded the market.

Though home purchases have remained relatively high historically, we expect a dramatic fall as the economic recovery fails to emerge. And as demand plunges, home prices will follow. Homeowners are already mired in debt and leveraged to the hilt. Increased numbers of homeowners could find themselves jobless and desperate to sell if the economic slump worsens. When that happens, real estate prices will crater. [Ed: But NOT local real estate taxes!!!]

Bottom line: The first signs of trouble in the residential real estate market are now appearing. Don't jump into this bubble!

[Black Agnes]

ping to #25.

[Tauzero]

Gee, should people also not count their unrealized portfolio losses against the performance of their financial advisors?

Works for Fannie Mae...

Unrealized /= imaginary

[Tauzero]

"But NOT local real estate taxes!!!"

Ow. Ow. Ouch. Painful thought.

[johnboy]

rohry ... we didn't know you were so sensitive.

seriously, i have read every word written by messr. puplava for the past year, year and a half or so, being introduced to his site here.

although there is little that messr. puplava writes that is fairly criticized or dismissed, nevertheless, i do understand why some here might be inclined to append to his daily column: "and, therefore, we're all going to die."

more a question of style than substance; frankly, messr. puplava provides a healthy dose of balance than what we see/hear elsewhere.

[grania]

No bashing from here, rhory. I enjoy the Puplova articles and the dialogue.

[EVO X]

I think the days of grabbing stocks with both hands is over for the time being.

Morning futures are way up. My theory will have to wait another day...

[arete]

Morning futures are way up

Oh boy, IBM has real earnings of .76 this quarter down from .90 for the same quarter a year ago and the pumpers are going to spin that into a wild rally. The fix is in and when Wall Street wants prices higher -- they will go higher. Who believes this crap anymore?

Richard W.

[cibco]

"No bashing from here, rohry. I enjoy the Puplova articles and the dialogue."

Most the bashing rohry gets is from new people that haven't been following MWU for any period of time. Something like discussing WWII in 1942 and someone that has just come out of the hills and says everyone is a doom & gloomer. After an exchange, you learn that person didn't know what happened between 1932 and 1941.

Rohry does handle these FNG's with patience and puts in an effort doing it. Too bad it happens so much.

[Semaphore Heathcliffe]

This is like reading a good mystery...

SPOILER ALERT! The Fed did it.

[AdamSelene235]

"But NOT local real estate taxes!!!" Ow. Ow. Ouch. Painful thought

This is the entire point of the GSE money pumps. The more they inflate the value of homes, the more access they have to people's income streams. Naturally, local governments are also eager to jump on the gravy train by cranking up property taxes.

Utterly pathetic when you consider the fact that most Americans don't have a title but rather a document with "color of title".

Home of the Fee and Land of the Slave.

[rohry]

"rohry ... we didn't know you were so sensitive."

The softer side of rohry is revealed to everyone. Don't tell my wife, she refers to me as, "a male Anne Coulter"...

[rohry]

You're welcome!

[Always Right]

Are We At the Bottom Yet?

Keep up the doom and gloom. We hit bottom last week.... the bulls are gaining momementum. You know after awhile this doom and gloom is really gonna look silly. The worst is behind us.

[rohry]

"Keep up the doom and gloom. We hit bottom last week..."

And if last week proves to be the bottom I'll be the first to congratulate your call. I doubt if it was however, and when the market breaks through the lower support level I'll be the first in line to taunt you...

[Tauzero]

"We hit bottom last week...."

Care to make a small cash wager?