Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race [Allard up 41-38]

ABC News ^ | 10/15/02 | Associated Press

[BlackRazor]

Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race

Colorado Incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard, Democrat Tom Strickland in Dead Heat, Another Poll Shows

The Associated Press

D E N V E R, Oct. 15 — The second poll in four days shows Republican Sen. Wayne Allard and Democratic challenger Tom Strickland in a dead heat just three weeks before the election.

The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed 41 percent supported Allard and 38 percent supported Strickland, with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points. Fourteen percent were undecided.

The poll, released Monday, was sponsored by The Denver Post, KUSA-TV and KOA radio.

A survey last week for the Rocky Mountain News and KCNC-TV showed Allard with a 39-35 lead over Strickland with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points.

Fifty-eight percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed by Denver-based Ciruli Associates said negative ads have lowered their opinions of both candidates.

"Neither of them can pull ahead or even move," pollster Floyd Ciruli said. "They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."

[MHGinTN]

Allard's opponent is a shallow but smoothly prepared typical democrat deceiver. In the MTP debate, the lieberal mindset bled through as Russert fed the democrat candidate the tilted questions. Allard is a gentleman and not given to bluster, so the approach Russert used was subtly different than the one he used to try and fluster Lindsey Graham this past weekend. But Allard represents the type of republican Coloradans like, as opposed to the clintonesque retread from the despotic democrat party. The bait&switch tactics of Allard's opponent expose the democrat methodology and the shape clinton has put on the despotic party. Look at how many democrat senate candidates appear in public using the same obfuscatory tactics of clinton!

[colorado tanker]

I agree with your insights. I think the main problem is that Allard is, how to put this, charisma-impaired? He's having a hard time getting traction with independents and will really depend on getting out the pubbie base.

[jmaroneps37]

This info is presented in rat-speak. In rat-speak if a rat is ahead, he is ahead margin or no margin. If a Republican is ahead, and it's within the margin, it's a dead heat. By the way this is a zomby poll and so is the one showing mclawyer in a "dead heat" with Jeb. Yesterday Chuck Todd on C-Span could not really keep a straight face when he mentioned zomby's two latest "master pieces" Minnesota and Missouri, he wondered, out loud, how races that have had no dramatic news in ten days, could swing 14 or 15 points. I don't wonder. zomby has admitted a rat bias and it shows.

[Non-Sequitur]

"They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."

That pretty much sums up political campaigns in America today.

[colorado tanker]

I agree with your observations how the media spin polls. The realclearpolitics average of all polls has Allard by five. Zogby has been favorable to Strickland all during this season. I must confess, however, that ever since Zogby called the 2000 Presidential just right and made me eat crow, I've quit knocking his data.

[ffrancone]

I agree with your comments. Strickland is following the Clinton script. Be in favor of "good" things, but don't let anyone know the leftist stuff you plan to do to accomplish them. This is a tough campaign for Allard because Strickland has no record to attack and he won't be honest with the voters about just how left-wing he actually is.

[afuturegovernor]

I hope Owens and Bush can put Allard over the top. Hasn't Allard been able to find any traction on popular Republican issues like guns, taxes, and foreign policy.

[BlackRazor]

By the way this is a zomby poll

No it isn't. This is a Ciruli Associates poll.

[ffrancone]

Allard isn't very good looking and his manner is clearly not slick willie. I believe Strickland went hyper-negative very early in order to disgust voters with everyone, knowing that in an honest, positive campaign, he was doomed.

Well, our 600 volunteers are going to be getting out the vote big time this November and the Repubs have not yet begun to shoot their wad on adventising. Strickland has already taken his best shot and outspent Allard 2:1.

[colorado tanker]

"I believe Strickland went hyper-negative very early in order to disgust voters with everyone, knowing that in an honest, positive campaign, he was doomed." Roger that!

BTW, I'm really getting tired of hearing media types and regular folks decry the negative ads. Politicians go negative because it works - and the media love selling all that air time.

[churchillbuff]

I predict the same results, Allard wins in a squeaker.

Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.

[churchillbuff]

Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.

[churchillbuff]

Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.

[churchillbuff]

Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.

[colorado tanker]

"Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes." Actually, the Republican registration advantage today is better than it was 10 years ago, and Bush won big here in 2000.

IMHO, however, Tom Tancredo and Mike Rosen's campaign to deport an illegal immigrant who just graduated high school but had the misfortune to appear in the Denver Post is not exactly helping in a close race. Strickland is playing his pro-abortion issue hard, which should give us a chance to pick up pro-life Catholics, unless they can be driven back to the Democrats by bashing hispanics.

[5by5]

Strickland's standard ploy has been to put Allard's voting record under the microscope and find fault with how he voted on one issue or another.

Strickland, on the other hand, has never been elected to anything, so Allard can't respond in kind.

[KQQL]

@

[KQQL]

P.S:
In 2000 All sitting Senators polling below 45% went home...\
Allard is polling below 45%...

[ffrancone]

I suspect the Hispanic vote has increased. But Republican registrations now outnumber Dems by about 200,000 (number from memory so take it with a grain of salt). Ten years ago, the registration figures were dead even.

[Coop]

In 2000 All sitting Senators polling below 45% went home...\ Allard is polling below 45%...

Yeah. BR and I both know that. Allard has been and still is vulnerable. But all those folks in 2000 were going against new candidates. Strickland's a proven commodity and a proven loser. And Allard has a lot of money in reserve.

COLORADO: Republican Sen. Wayne Allard: Raised and spent about $3.8 million; $900,583 on hand.
Democratic challenger Tom Strickland: Raised $3.5 million and spent $3.7 million; $160,131 on hand.

Strickland had better hope he still has a lot of pre-paid advertising to run. So they spent the same amount, and neither got a lot for it. But Allard led throughout.

I know this race is still competitive, but I have a difficult time believing a guy who already lost to Allard six years ago, when there were less registered Dems, can now defeat Allard while having $800K less than him and in trailing in all but one poll. I'll continue to worry about Allard, but if you make me pick right now I've gotta go with Allard taking about 53-54%.