Posted on 10/11/2002 10:55:58 AM PDT by rwfromkansas
(Topeka, Kansas) Just as he did in the Republican primary, Tim Shallenburger is executing his come from behind campaign.
"We're excited that our polling shows we have shaved a 22-point deficit to nine points today," said Shallenburger spokesman Bob Murray.
"We've said all long that we had a plan - and just like in the primary, it's coming together."
The poll reveals that Shallenburger has moved substantially among Republicans, particularly among those who describe themselves as either somewhat conservative or moderate. This movement is most notable in western Kansas where Sebelius has had artificially inflated numbers due to her famous surname.
"Clearly, our campaign is moving in the right direction. As voters come to find that Kathleen Sebelius only offers the same old tax and spend agenda, and realize that Tim is the candidate with the vision to find a better way, they support us." stated Murray.
The poll was conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (CHS), a national research firm located in Oklahoma City that has a long history of successfully polling in Kansas. In 1996, the then CHS publication The Kansas Report was the first to show Sam Brownback to lead Sheila Frahm in that primary. CHS also conducted the polling that showed Tim Shallenburger's double-digit primary win earlier this year. In addition, CHS polling has accurately predicted every general election race in Kansas it has polled - dating back to 1996.
Editors Note: Please find attachment of survey memo below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TO: Alan Cobb, Campaign Manager, Shallenburger for Governor FROM: Pat McFerron, Director of Survey Research, Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates
RE: Survey of 500 likely voters in Kansas, Conducted October 6 - 7, 2002, Margin of error: +/-5.6%
Our most recent survey shows a dramatic shift in the ballot test for Governor. Today, the race is within nine points (37% Shallenburger vs. 46% Sebelius vs. 1% Hawver vs. 1% Pettibone). This is in contrast to our last survey, conducted August 27 - 30, in which Sebelius held a 54% to 32% lead. Since that time, Sebelius has dropped eight-points, while Shallenburger has climbed five. The 13-point shift over five weeks time is a substantial change and demonstrates that the Shallenburger campaign has momentum heading into the final weeks.
Since August, we have seen substantial movement among registered Republicans toward the Shallenburger campaign. While in late August, Shallenburger led Sebelius by only 13-points among this critical group, that lead has expanding to 28 points today (55% Shallenburger vs. 27% Sebelius).
Movement toward Shallenburger has also been substantial in western Kansas, particularly in the First Congressional District. In August, we wrote that Sebelius lead was at least somewhat artificially inflated in that area of the state due to her famous surname. At that time, she held a 24-point lead in the solid Republican area (31% Shallenburger vs. 55% Sebelius). Today, Sebelius still leads, but the difference is only 7-points (35% Shallenburger vs. 42% Sebelius). Clearly, if the Shallenburger campaign is able to continue this trend, it will win Western Kansas.
Shallenburger has also shown substantial movement among somewhat-conservative in Kansas known as moderate Republicans voters. While in August, this group strongly backed Sebelius (33% Shallenburger vs. 51% Sebelius), today Shallenburger has a slight edge (45% Shallenburger vs. 42% Sebelius).
The movement among Republicans, particularly somewhat conservative and moderate ones, indicates that the activity such as Graves' endorsement, Bob Dole's support, Steve Rose's editorial and support from Congressman Moran and Senator Roberts, have helped pull the coalition back together.
It is clear from this survey data that the Republican coalition is coming back together in Kansas. The Shallenburger campaign must do everything within its power to make certain that this trend continues. At this point, it is still too early to tell who the ultimate victor will be. What can be said is that the race will continue to tighten and that it is far from over.
The Shallenburger poll was actually the most accurate one prior to the primary. Maybe this is not over like I thought the other day. Freepers, let's get busy...let's work our butts off to get Shallenburger elected! Tell the truth about Sebelius!
Use this great article from the Johnson County Sun:
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?BRD=1459&dept_id=155743&newsid=5568637&PAG=461&rfi=9
I knew Sebelius' poll numbers were bunk. The last poll claimed she was winning in western KS, which is bunk. While driving through that part of the state a couple weeks ago I did not see a single sign of hers, yet Shallenbergers name was on a sign in alot of fields.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.