Stocks: Where's the bottom? Some say 6000.

USA Today ^ | 10/10/2002 | Adam Shell and Matt Krantz, USA TODAY

[ex-Texan]

NEW YORK

[Willie Green]

Theoreticly, I think the correct answer is zero.
I don't believe that there can be a negative DJIA.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Allow me...

We're all going to die!

[rohry]

"Hugh Johnson of First Albany notes that if the Dow dropped to roughly 6000, it would reduce its price-to-earnings ratio to about 15, back in line with historical levels."

Is he using GAP numbers or CRAP numbers?

[You Dirty Rats]

U.S. Stocks are limited liability -- they can become worthless, but nobody can force a stockholder to kick in more money. Zero is the bottom.

[dalereed]

"Is he using GAP numbers or CRAP numbers?"

Just the new math that they now "teach" in school, besides correct answers don't count anymore.

Im still sticking with my 3000 prediction.

[SamAdams76]

Imagine if twenty years ago I told you I would guarantee you a return of a million dollars on an initial investment of $100,000 over the next 18 years. But as a condition, you would then have to give $400,000 of it back to me over a period of two years. Would you then consider it a bad deal?

This is roughly analogous to what is going on in the stock market. The Dow Jones runs up to 10,000 and then slides back to 6,000. Now just 20 years ago, it was hovering under 1,000. So even with the drop, your portfolio is worth six times more than it was worth back in 1982. Still not a bad deal, I say.

Now I understand not everybody here was in the market back in 1982. But like back then, now is a great opportunity to get in the market and see what the next 20 years will bring!

[dennisw]

The bottom will be 50% of the top minus 1500.

IOW the DOW will bottom at 4500 and if lucky 5000.

[Zebra]

My prediction: absent another 9-11 scenario in the next 12 months, we have seen the bottom. The resolution today is the beginning of removing the biggest uncertainty in the market (Iraq/oil). A blitz of Iraq (coming) will counter any remaining bad news numbers in the accounting scandals. Dow over 8000 to stay by election.

[Monty22]

As soon as people go 'it can't go lower', it will... And then at that bottom is the time to buy.. Just like it was time to sell in early 2000.

When the consensus thinks it's doom and gloom you know the bottom is near, and will turn around. The consensus is incredibly off target and late.

[Consort]

We had a big setback today in reaching 6000. What went wrong?

[ReadMyMind]

Earnings are dropping.

P/E of 10 and DJIA at 4500 would be closer to a historical norm given the dropping earnings and employment.

That's about 40% lower than today's close.

Hugh is an optimist. Zero's the only absolute bottom.

[ReadMyMind]

The consensus is a lot closer to doom and gloom than it has been since 1974.

[dennisw]

Go out and buy when you see the big doom n gloom cover on TIME MAGAZINE. But you might have to wait a while.

[ambrose]

Now I understand not everybody here was in the market back in 1982

Yeah, and that's a fairly big caveat... people who bought in during the 90's are getting reamed. Younger people can wait it out, but what about oldsters hitting retirement age?

[RCW2001]

5500...give or take a few '100'(btw...that is without another terror attack and the war being the 'cakewalk' that we are told it will be).

[rohry]

Have you ever seen a chart of the Dow during the stock market crash of 1929-1933?

I thought not...

[mwl1]

This market is already irrational oversold. I'm young, and I'm buying at these prices.

[maestro]

Buy at 2500

[Vidalia]

"Zero is the bottom. "

Absolutely, and one doesn't have to be a genius to figure that one.

The question must be continually asked,

If all of these analysts and brokers are so godammed smart, why are they still giving advice and not trading from a yacht in the Bahamas?

You would logically think that their individual cumulative knowledge would afford them the "keys to the market workings" and they would no longer put their hyper-vocalized faces on the tube.

The real world buy is simple.

If you and your relatives/friends across the country like the product, buy the stock, and if you don't have a clue about the product, then don't buy...