Wednesday, 10/9, Market WrapUp (Derivative model breakdown?)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/9/2002 | James J. Puplava

[#3Fan]

On the bright side, at least we'll all be dead in a few decades or so.

LOL Good one.

These market wrapups don't get the hits they did a couple months ago. I guess everyone's waiting for the market to get back up to 9000 again so they can come back and get cocky like they were before.

I'm a Republican so I'm not enjoying this especially with the elections coming up, but I think it's unrealistic to assume that PEs can just keep rising.

[Billy_bob_bob]

Your kids will live to see new bull markets. Their kids will live to see the next bubble. It seems to happen about every seventy years or so. There is a theory called the "Elliot wave" that talks about this.

[steveegg]

Dow 3000, NASDAQ 750, S&P500 500. Within the next two years. This is, of course, predicted with my patented SWAG ("Scientific" Wild Assed Guess) method. Personally, I'm in cash and real estate right now. Stocks and bonds make me nervous.

You think it's going to take that long? Have you looked at the NASDAQ futures lately?

My prediction of Dow 3000 by Nov 4 (the day before the election) is still on, but is "slightly" shaky.

I'd bail out of real estate soon.

[steveegg]

I'll take "or so" for $500, Laz.

[rohry]

"These market wrapups don't get the hits they did a couple months ago."

I get FreepMail from many people that say they read the Market WrapUp but do not post. It's true that the Bulls have gone into hiding but I ping over 70 people every night for this post. I think most of them read it...

Some don't post because they think that they don't "have enough knowledge."

They don't know that we are all hacks...(laughing)

[Billy_bob_bob]

I'm planning on putting my house on the market this spring, taking profits and buying a more modest place. Hopefully it will sell in a timely manner. From what I have seen things have moved much more slowly that what I would have thought. I can't BELIEVE the Dow is still over 7000.

There is a lot of money moving out of equities. Some is going into cash, some is going into bonds, and some is going into real estate. So I think real estate is going to be doing well for about another year, and since my home is in a desireable area where few properties come up for sale I think I'll do OK.

[Davea]

"These market wrapups don't get the hits they did a couple months ago."

I've noticed that too. I guess if you don't think about it, it will all just go away. But it isn't going to go away. It's just beginning. Toss the upcoming war into the mix.

[steveegg]

Call me a "hack-in-training" then <VBG> I'm learning quite a bit about the markets reading these threads (though I still can't figure out an emotional politicized market for the life of me).

[steveegg]

It sounds like you should just beat the local burst of the real estate bubble.

[tubebender]

I'd bail out of real estate soon.

Capital gains taxes in Cal (Fed & Ca) run 40% plus 6 % commission to realator and you will probably have to carry a second behind the bank. requires some thought. Remember this property is probably returning a good rent.

[Ken H]

DJ Utilities took another hit today, down about 10%. Lowest level since '88.

[steveegg]

Rentals are a special case (they're like stocks that pay dividends; hopefully they don't turn into Ford), but the speculative market doesn't look good.

[dalereed]

"The Dow will probably end up around 3000 before this is all said and done."

Finally someone that agrees with my 3000 prediction of 2 years ago!

[dalereed]

"Capital gains taxes in Cal (Fed & Ca) run 40%"

You'rre forgeting about the new rules!

You get a 600,000 exclusion (I believe it has been raised now) if it has been your primary residence for 2 out of the last 5 years and it's not a one time thing anymore, you can do it every 2 years!

[blam]

"Remember this property is probably returning a good rent."

My fear is that there will be no-one who can afford the rent.(?)

[tubebender]

Some don't post because they think that they don't "have enough knowledge."

...there you go making fun of me again.

[steveegg]

That would be the big downside to rental properties. Having to put up with whatever dregs of the Earth that somehow pony up enough cash is the other.

[tubebender]

My fear is that there will be no-one who can afford the rent.(?)

In some markets that will be true but then again it depends on when you purchased the property. Some of mine were purchased in the 60s & 70s. I would not sell my home here for to many reasons to list.

[EternalHope]

These market wrapups don't get the hits they did a couple months ago.

I'll bet they still get the hits, just not the comments.

We all know the bubble has not finished popping.

What's to say? Don't jump?

[blam]

"Having to put up with whatever dregs of the Earth that somehow pony up enough cash is the other."

That's always a problem.