TENN: State's GOP base is bumpy for Bredesen (D)(1 barf bag needed)

The fight for the governor's mansion was supposed to be easy for Democrat Phil Bredesen.

He entered the race last year with widespread name recognition, particularly in Middle Tennessee where, as Nashville's mayor, he earned the reputation of a talented chief executive who knows a lot about management and health care.

He is credited with being a skilled deal maker who lured professional football to Nashville. He put together incentive packages to attract computer maker Dell and to keep Columbia HCA from leaving.

Bredesen also is armed with his own fortune, much of which he earned by buying troubled health maintenance organizations and making them profitable. Even White House political director Ken Mehlman let it slip in June that he believed Bredesen had a strong chance of winning the governor's race in Tennessee.

Yet that's not what the polls say. While Bredesen's internal polls show him seven points ahead of Hilleary, Hilleary's polls show him a point ahead of Bredesen, less than a month before the election.

A statewide poll conducted in mid-September showed Bredesen leading with 37 percent of the vote to Hilleary's 29 percent. Two weeks later, another poll showed the candidates in a dead heat, with 44 percent of the vote going to Bredesen and 42 percent for Hilleary. Both polls had a 4 percent margin of error.

If a Republican candidate in a statewide race is behind in the polls as Election Day nears, the spread between the Democrat and Republican almost always will narrow in favor of the Republican, because Tennessee is a Republican state.

Hilleary also is on the popular side of this year's hot election issue: taxes. If polls are correct, that's the issue most voters care about this year.

Hilleary has done an effective job of communicating his anti-tax message. There is no other issue he talks about as often and with as much clarity. Even while explaining his position on the death penalty during a televised debate in Memphis this week, Hilleary worked his position against taxes into his answer. He has effectively latched onto the issue and claimed it as his own.

Bredesen also campaigns against a broad-based income tax, but it's an issue a Democrat simply can't win with, particularly when his Republican opponent reminds voters that he pushed to raise property taxes three times as mayor of Nashville. Like Hilleary, Bredesen doesn't believe an income tax would solve the state's budget problems. But when he responds to Hilleary's charges that he quietly favors an income tax, Bredesen finds himself again talking about the one issue that won't get him votes.

Bredesen is an intelligent and articulate man, but unlike Hilleary he has failed to communicate his message: He has the ability to manage the state and his record as mayor proves he can attract new business to Tennessee and broaden the state's economic base.

Bredesen's analyses of what the state needs to return to a sound financial footing don't resonate with voters as well as the one-sentence quip against taxes that Hilleary can deliver.

Bredesen's advertising people erred when they failed last summer to define Hilleary as a candidate who is not qualified to run the state. Instead they let Hilleary define himself.

Through Hilleary's TV ad efforts, voters have learned he served as a navigator in the Persian Gulf War, grew up in rural East Tennessee and is a congressman. Many voters still don't know about Bredesen's personal business successes and his triumphs as a mayor.

Another reason this race is a dead heat: Hilleary appears to be running stronger in rural areas than Bredesen. That's largely the result of Hilleary's strong stand against a state income tax and his ability to connect with rural voters.

Bredesen grew up in New York state and graduated from Harvard. Those aren't the kind of credentials rural Tennesseans tend to embrace.

Hilleary's campaign has done a clever job of connecting Bredesen with Gov. Don Sundquist, who broke his no-new-taxes campaign promise, implying Bredesen will do the same. Country folks frown on big-city folks who break their word and Hilleary knows that.

Yes. But he must rely heavily on advertising - an expensive way to bring undecided voters into his camp. And he must make sure that the Republican business leaders who defected to Bredesen's side early in the campaign remain with him through Election Day.

Bredesen has the money to do that and fund a get-out-the-vote effort. He's prepared to use his wealth to win the race - a resource Hilleary doesn't have.

Hilleary has been attacking Bredesen on this issue, but rich politicians use their money to fund their campaigns all the time. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Remember George Flinn?

Susan Adler Thorp is political columnist for The Commercial Appeal. You can reach her at 529-5843, write to her at 495 Union, Memphis, Tenn. 38103, or contact her by E-mail at thorp@gomemphis.com.

Weasel's phil's Harvard education and Yankee background is not playing well in Rural Tennessee...I don't think it's playing well anywhere except Memphis where the voting block is majority demwit.

Weasel phil and Boss Hogg jimmy naifeh have been trying to say the INCOME TAX is DEAD..which we who have been in the trenches KNOW BETTER, that it is only dead IF we can defeat nafieh in getting re-elected and block Weasel phil from being elected.

Weasel phil is complaining about W and Cheney coming into Tennessee for Van and Lamar...but Weasel phil won't have teddy, slick, shillary, dashole, gebhard, or Albore campaign for him.. Says the guv's race is a State issue, not a national issue...more likely he is RUNNING from their ANTI-GUN, HIGH TAXES image.

Tony Lopez is running against the Speaker LOPEZ

Friends of Tony Lopes
PO Box 574
Covington, TN 38019

WAKE UP! LITTLE SUSIE....

It seems to me that Little Susie (Thorp) just woke up, to find out that her candidate is in trouble because his opponent, Van Hilleary, knew what was important to Tennesseans (TAXES!) and stayed on topic, while Yankee Phil thought he could just sell himself.

She is mostly right - and it's gotta hurt like hell for her to admit it.

Earlier this year she was trying to trash Van Hilleary's education positions, but by including several quotations, she actually made him look pretty good. The CA published a letter of mine thanking her for disseminating the information to the public, since the rest of her newspaper had done it so poorly.

Do You Think He Wants You To Donate To Free Republic?

Tick him off. Donate Here By Secure Server

Or mail checks to
FreeRepublic , LLC
PO BOX 9771
FRESNO, CA 93794

or you can use

PayPal at Jimrob@psnw.com

STOP BY AND BUMP THE FUNDRAISER THREAD

Phunny, the Phil I remember (as a born 'n raised citizen of the People's Republic of Nashvillestan) was a tax-happy liberal who presided over an explosion in the crime rate, ignored the suburbs in the name of focusing on "big-ticket" items we could scarcely afford, and on and on... Phil has an office downtown where (when he smooshes his face up against the window) he can see the State Capitol building up the street, and has had a warm 'n fuzzy feeling in the middle of his shorts to make that trip up the street for most of the past decade. Let's just say "no" to the Pharoah...

The Freeper Tagline Challenge!

For every dollar donated to FR in support of bringing back the Tag Line
I will match those donations up to a total of $500

Please let me know the amount you donate, thanks.

Donate Here By Secure Server

Or mail checks to
FreeRepublic , LLC
PO BOX 9771
FRESNO, CA 93794

or you can use

PayPal at Jimrob@psnw.com

Fund Raiser thread here

Let's just say "no" to the Pharoah...

Bredesen's support here in the Chattanooga area is weak at best. Lots of signs along the highway, but you see a lot more Hillary stickers on people's cars and Hillary signs in peoples yards.

Simply put: A vote for Phil Bredesen is a vote FOR a state income tax. Can you afford a 6% pay cut next year?

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.