Senate Races: Latest Poll Results frrom DC Political Report

DC Political Report (and other sources) ^ | October 9, 2002

[Bryan]

The DC Political Report runs an outstanding website, so I thought I'd share the results with my fellow Freepers. Some of these polls come from other sources; I've done my best to find the latest, particularly in New Jersey, Texas and Missouri.

The date listed nest to each state is the date of the most recent poll. Each incumbent is marked with an asterisk (*). Cook Political Reports (Cook) and the Center for Political Reports (CPR) are also available on other sites and they've proven to be quite accurate in the past:

Alabama (Univ. of Alabama, 9/12)

Jeff Sessions* (R) ............... 55%
Susan Parker (D) ............... 27%

Alaska

Ted Stevens* (R) ................ No polling data. Cook
Frank Vondersaar (D) ....... shows as a solid (R).

Arkansas (Zogby, 9/20)

Tim Hutchinson* (R) ......... 43%
Mark Pryor (D) ................... 45%

Colorado (Zogby, 9/18)

Wayne Allard* (R) ............. 42% This one is close
Tom Strickland (D) ............ 42% but I think Allard
Rick Stanley (Lib) ................ 6% will pull it off.

Delaware

Joseph Biden* (D) .............. No polling data. Cook
Ray Clatworthy (R) ........... shows as a solid (D).

Georgia (Mitchell Research, 10/1)

Max Cleland* (D) ............... 51%
Saxby Chambliss (R) .......... 42%

Idaho

Larry Craig* (R) .................. No polling data. Cook
Alan Blinken (D) ................. shows as a solid (R).

Illinois (Chicago Tribune, 4/29)

Dick Durbin* (D) ................ 49%
Jim Durkin (R) .................... 32%

Iowa (KCCI-TV, 9/10)

Tom Harkin* (D) ................ 51% Despite this poll I
Greg Ganske (R) ................. 42% think Harkin may lose.

Kansas

Pat Roberts* (R) ................. No polling data. Cook
NO CANDIDATE (D) ....... shows as a solid (R).

Kentucky (Voter/Consumer Research, 9/5)

Mitch McConnell* (R) ........ 55%
Lois Weinberg (D) .............. 25%

Louisiana (Voter/Consumer Research, 7/30)

Mary Landrieu* (D) ............ 46%
(Primary 11/5)

Maine (Strategic Marketing, 9/23)

Susan Collins* (R) ............... 59%
Chellie Pingree (D) ............. 28%

Massachusetts

John Kerry* (D) ................... No polling data. Cook
NO CANDIDATE (R) ........ shows as a solid (D).

Michigan (EPIC/MRA, 8/22)

Carl Levin* (D) .................... 62%
Andrew Raczkowski (R) .... 33%

Minnesota (Zogby, 9/19)

Norm Coleman (R) ............. 47% Wellstone is six points
Paul Wellstone* (D) ............ 41% behind. He's finished.

Mississippi

Thad Cochran* (R) .............. No polling data. Cook
Steven Turney (D) ............... shows as a solid (R).

Missouri (Survey St. Louis, 10/6)

Jean Carnahan* (D) .............. 48% As this poll shows, like
Jim Talent (R) ....................... 48% Harkin, Carnahan can lose.

Montana (Mason-Dixon, 9/26)

Max Baucus* (D) ................. 54%
Mike Taylor (R) ................... 35%

Nebraska

Chuck Hagel* (R) ................ No polling data. Cook
Charles Matulka (D) ........... shows as a solid (R).

New Hampshire (Research 2000, 10/3)

John Sununu (R) ................. 46% Seat is held by
Jeanne Shaheen (D) ............ 42% Bob Smith (R).

New Jersey (Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers, 10/6)

Frank Lautenberg (D) ......... 44% Seat is held by
Douglas Forrester (R) ......... 44% Bob Torricelli (D).

New Mexico (Research & Polling Inc., 9/13)

Pete Dominici* (R) .............. 66%
Gloria Tristani (D) ............... 23%

North Carolina (Hickman Brown, 9/18)

Elizabeth Dole (R) ............... 52% Seat is held by
Erskine Bowles (D) ............. 41% Jesse Helms (R).

Oklahoma (Tulsa World, 9/19)

James Inhofe* (R) ................ 51%
David Walters (D) ............... 34%

Oregon (Riley Research Assoc./KGW-TV, 9/28)

Gordon Smith* (R) ............... 53%
Bill Bradbury (D) ................. 30%

Rhode Island

Jack Reed* (D) ...................... No polling data. Cook
Bob Tingle (R) ...................... shows as a solid (D).

South Carolina (Mason-Dixon, 6/5)

Lindsey Graham (R) ............ 52% Seat is held by
Alex Sanders (D) .................. 36% Strom Thurmond (R).

South Dakota (Mason-Dixon, 9/19)

John Thune (R) ...................... 43% Johnson has edged ahead of
Tim Johnson* (D) .................. 44% Thune. He's still in trouble.

Tennessee (Mason-Dixon, 9/19)

Lamar Alexander (R) ........... 54% Seat is held by
Bob Clement (D) .................. 35% Fred Thompson (R).

Texas (NBC Channel 5, 10/6)

John Cornyn (R) ................... 56% Seat is held by
Ron Kirk (D) ......................... 30% Phil Gramm (R).

Virginia

John Warner* (R) ................ No polling data. Cook
NO CANDIDATE (D) ........ shows as a solid (R).

West Virginia

Jay Rockefeller* (D) ........... No polling data. Cook
Jay Wolfe (R) ...................... shows as a solid (D).

Wyoming

Mike Enzi* (R) .................... No polling data. Cook
Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) ... shows as a solid (R).

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2002/polls02.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/senate_all.htm

For the Texas poll:

http://www.nbc5i.com/politics/1707582/detail.html

For the New Jersey poll:

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-4/103406861923870.xml

For the Missouri poll:

http://www.ksdk.com/news/news_article_lc.asp?storyid=30531

[Bryan]

Due to the slimy maneuvers of the Democrats in New Jersey, I must report that my estimate of the number of Senate seats the GOP will gain has dropped from three to two. But we will still take control of the Senate -- and the all-important Judiciary Committee. And there are a few races where the Democratic candidate has only a very slender lead, and could be beaten with some hard work.

Several other races look much better than they did when I posted a similar thread two weeks ago. Races that were very close have seen the GOP candidate acquire a little breathing room.

Special thanks to KQQL for flagging me to threads that had the latest Texas, New Jersey and Missouri poll results. The following is a summary of the peculiar Louisiana system by Freeper WFTR:

* * * * * * *

Louisiana runs a strange system. All candidates run together in November. If one gains over 50% of the vote, that candidate wins. If no one gets more than 50%, the top two candidates have a runoff in December.

The Republicans have three real candidates in this race. I write about them and their appearance at a candidate forum in an article on my own website. I also posted part of this one as a vanity here at Free Republic. The thread is at

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/campaign2002/742529/posts

From everything that I've seen, the Republican candidates are still splitting about 30-35% of the vote right now. Another roughly 15% of the vote is made of Republicans who are undecided among the three Republican candidates. The election hangs on about 5% of the voters who are truly undecided about whether to vote for Mary Landrieu or one of the three Republicans. If Landrieu gets those votes, she wins. If they split, there will be a runoff. The GOP is hoping for a runoff where we hope to have more motivated voters who will take us to victory.

[Bryan]

Get your hot 'n' fresh poll results here.

[Bryan]

Get your hot 'n' fresh poll results here.

[bybybill]

from your lips to God`s ear

[Wphile]

Hmmmm. Our odds still look good in MN, MO, and SD but I don't like the looks of Colorado and Arkansas. My original call was for a pickup of 4: NJ, SD, MN, MO but I have to drop NJ off of that since the democrat switcheroo. So, that means a pickup of 3, assuming we can hold onto Arkansas and Colorado. Assuming one of those two doesn't make it, it's looking more like a pickup of only 2 at this point. Bummer.

But who knows, Cornyn sure took off in Texas. It could happen elsewhere.

[Wphile]

Wayne Allard* (R) ............. 42% This one is close

Tom Strickland (D) ............ 42% but I think Allard

Rick Stanley (Lib) ................ 6% will pull it off.

Gotta love those libertarians - NOT!!

[Bryan]

Volley flag ... FIRE! ... CEASE FIRE! Chambers open, weapons down!

If you'd like to donate to Free Republic using our new secure server, please click here.

bigotry \Big"ot*ry\, n. [Cf. F. bigoterie.] 1. The state of mind of a bigot; obstinate and unreasoning attachment of one's own belief and opinions, with narrow-minded intolerance of beliefs opposed to them.

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
It smells like victory.

Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum.

[Wphile]

New Jersey (Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers, 10/6)

Frank Lautenberg (D) ......... 44% Seat is held by

Douglas Forrester (R) ......... 44% Bob Torricelli (D).

Hey, Forrester is looking good. Oh God, how I hope he pulls this out. Go DOUG go! Maybe I will put NJ back in the GOP pickup column.

[Anti-Bubba182]

TAKE BACK THE SENATE!

VOTE OUT THE DEMS!

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[Bryan]

My estimates are conservative. I'm saying that we'll pick up two seats. We may pick up three or four. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed and disgusted.

[Wphile]

Me too. I just can't figure out what the h*ll is the matter with those yahoos in SD. Thune should be running away with this. And Colorado is a mystery too. Should be a solid conservative state. Of course, the libertarian is a problem there.

I noticed that the SD race is an older poll - 9/19. I thought I had read or heard that Thune has pulled slightly ahead in that one. Keep the faith.

[rb22982]

thanks for the ping and the info

[rb22982]

My guess is the LP candidate will not get 6% (maybe 2%) and that 2/3 of those votes will go to the Republican candidate. Will be interesting and sad to see if another Slade happens. My guess is Zogby is off here, the only other 2 polls out (a bit older but nonetheless) show GOP +11 and +8 in Colorado.

[comebacknewt]

Thanks for the ping.

At this point, I am not as optimistic as you. The only sure incumbent loser I see is Hutchison in Arkansas.

I sure would feel a lot better if Thune or Talent could open up an actual lead!

[Mo1]

THis whole thing makes me a nervous wreck ..

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the heads up!

[Wphile]

I didn't notice that the Colorado poll was Zogby's. It's also from 9/18 and it's possible much has changed since then. I also find the 6% awfully high for the libertarian candidate. Thanks for helping me feel better about this race!

[Wphile]

You and I both! I have no fingernails to speak of. It's going to be a long 4 weeks.

TAKE BACK THE SENATE!!

[Mo1]

I HATE DEMOCRATS!!!!

[Bryan]

THis whole thing makes me a nervous wreck ..

Just remember the end of Campaign 2000. What a cliff-hanger! And it all turned out all right in the end. Have a litle faith.