Monday, 10/7, Market WrapUp (Taking it in the Shorts)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/7/2002 | James J. Puplava

[Zebra]

Here's a prediction:

After the US and its allies complete operation regime change in Iraq (a quick affair), we will have a staging center that is practical (unlike Afghanistan) for 7-10 years as we stablize the successor regime. This screws the financing for terror, bullwhips Saudi Arabia back in line, probably hastens the return to civilization of Iran, and CERTAINLY chases back to the US the capital which fled after 9-11. Why? Because investors will become reacquainted with the notion that power = security and the US markets are the least rigged exchanges in the world (even with the recent Enron-type bullsh*t). The Dow will be over 8000 by Thanksgiving, and trending up through 2004 election cycle (although it will be a slow, measured bull market).

I am not a broker, but a student of history. Now is the time to buy, as it is the time to refinance your mortgage. You won't see these rates or prices again in your lifetime.

[steveegg]

Three Hail Marys and give $1000 to the Talent campaign in MO (the most important race in the US right now)...

I'll skip the Hail Marys, but I'll second the cash to the Talent campaign.

[steveegg]

I'm also a student of history, but I don't see this as rosy as you do. This is a political market, and we won't control the politics.

[lds23]

I'm saving my campaign cash for Forrester here in NJ.

And my prayers for the NY Giants making the playoffs.

[steveegg]

'Tis another worthy campaign.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Last week another secret elitist meeting was held at Waddendon Manor in Buckinghamshire, England. Billionaire Warren Buffett accompanied by Arnold Schwarznegger,

Interesting. Very interesting.

All the attendees arrive in limos with blackened windows so no one could see who the attendees were.

Then how did whoever came up with this know who was there? Where does one find out about these 'secret meetings'?

[Zebra]

We might control the politics better than you think, depending on the events of the next several weeks. I am more sanguine about the politics, though, and your observation is a good one. Keep the faith.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Huh? The arrows are red, and they are down. OTOH, they still have the US$ to Euro mistake...the way they have it is one US $ buys 0.98 Euros, when it is in fact inverted. One dollar buys 1.01 Euros.

[rb22982]

using IE 6.0 here. No idea why they aren't showing

[rohry]

"Red means down, green means up..."

I agree. The author at the very least should have used green to indicate up and red to indicate down, but he didn't.

What do you have a black and white monitor? There is clearly red and green arrows in the charts. There are also arrows pointing down and up in the charts.

DOWN ARROWS MEAN DOWN...

"Tomorrow we will teach 4th grade charting..."

Sorry, you haven't passed our third grade course you must go to Summer school...

[rohry]

"I don't see any down arrow beside each number. I'm using Internet Explorer. What browser are you using? Why doesn't my IE 5.5 show the arrow."

I apologize if your browser does not show arrows, mine does. I run IE v6.0...

[Zebra]

Everything is down--my stuff, across the board. I don't know which banks or utilities you have. JP Morgan and banks with its type of credit exposure and potential capital markets risk (look at its derivatives desk, too) have not seen the bottom. I like the sector though. Banks like Fifth Third, National City and some of the regional players have good prospects. Utilities are also all over the place. Roll up plays that are overleveraged (like AES) are frightening; the old fashioned widows-and-orphans utilities are strong hedges against slow recovery.

I'd sell the money center banks and utility conglomerates with large balance sheet debt; hold the others.

And buy Turkish war bonds!

[grania]

Spreads on U.S. dollar swaps pushed wider on Monday, with 10-year spreads breaking to highs not seen since March as renewed worries about major global banks and a broad-based flight to safe assets dented all credit spreads

This is the wild card...the global economy. There is just no precedent that can be used for valid comparisons.

Then there's the matter of the parts of the world that are being neglected. Africa with serious rebellions and health issues. South America which might get an attitude of going it alone and defaulting on loans. The Phillipines with some real nasty terrorists in those jungles. China which gets to sell its stuff and grow its economy in a period of peace and expansion.

I bought a new car last week. Why? If there's a war, I question if parts for the one I had would be readily available. I also thought the prices might go up if the supply of high MPG cars goes down.

Stocks? I don't have a clue. I still like my portfolio, and am riding with it. Its only 20% of my savings so I can take the ride. I suspect we'd win any war that gets started; it's the unintended consequences that concern me.

[rohry]

"Sorry for being off-topic here."

I don't know what is wrong but I should be the one to apologize for assuming that you could not read charts...