Then for another monkey wrench, take the case of a mutated strain that infected 7 in Australia through a blood screening failure. None of the 7 has developed AIDs. Why do we even know it happened? Because of the manner of infection - transfusion - and screening procedures caught the HIV positives despite a complete absence of symptoms. Now, can that happen with sexual tranmission in some subpopulation in New Orleans? Sure. Would be ever know about it? We'd probably eventually see a portion of the HIV positives, because of a random testing "hit" within that subpopulation etc. Would we see all of it? No. Would such cases show up in a general survey of the incidence of HIV positives? A random one yes, a patient one no.
You have to be very careful with definitional and observational bias issues when making statements about epidemic categories...