Austin Columnist Sees Democrat Senatorial Victory in TX

10-06-07 | Theodore R

[Theodore R.]

Dave NcNeely is a columnist for the Austin American Statesman (Cox Newspaper). His latest column contends that a victory by Ron Kirk in the U.S. Senate race on Nov. 5 will bring Texas into play (like FL) in the 2004 presidential election. McNeely, considered on the liberal spectrum among Texas political reporters, also thinks Kirk could be a "potential member of a future Democratic ticket, because of his (African American) race, and because if he gets elected, he will be seen as a moderate, not a member of the left wing of the Democratic party."

McNeely notes that Texas has been "off the table for Democrats in presidential politics since 1976, when it was went Democrat for president.

Liberal Democrat Congressman Martin Frost of Dallas is quoted by McNeely as saying the Kirk victory will "send some nationwide shockwaves into the Republican party because it will show that the president failed to hold his own state in a major political race." Kirk is said to have appeal to both suburban professionals who dislike the conservative image of the GOP and minorities, both Hispanics and blacks.

The column notes that Hispanics favor Democrats at least 2-1, while African Americans are nearly unanimous in their support of "the democracy."

Down the road a Kirk victory will put Texas in play for the presidential and other congressional races. Already it is noted that many Republicans are predicting a "huge" African American turnout. Moreover, the Democrat Tony Sanchez campaign for governor will similarly bring out a "huge" turnout of Hispanics to support the entire Democratic ticket.

[Theodore R.]

So faced with the changing complexion of TX politics, why are many so convinced still that John Cornyn will indeed take the oath of office on Jan. 3, 2003, to succeed Senator Phil Gramm, R-TX? Also, I wonder if the 2008 Democrat ticket just might be the second Clinton and Ron Kirk!

[shadeaud]

Ever since we started to add floride to the drinking water,the Democrats here seem to be in a ''Molly Ivans'' fog

[D-fendr]

McNeely is very liberal and suffers from myopia living in Austin. Kirk is no "moderate."

The main thing going for the dems is that it's not a presidential election year.

Graham was a great loss, he was a fierce campaigner.

But Texas is still a conservative state.

[sinkspur]

So faced with the changing complexion of TX politics, why are many so convinced still that John Cornyn will indeed take the oath of office on Jan. 3, 2003, to succeed Senator Phil Gramm, R-TX?

Because I don't believe either of the following will transpire:

Already it is noted that many Republicans are predicting a "huge" African American turnout. Moreover, the Democrat Tony Sanchez campaign for governor will similarly bring out a "huge" turnout of Hispanics to support the entire Democratic ticket.

Where are Republicans predicting a huge African-American turnout? That's the first I've heard that.

Also, Tony Sanchez is an uninspiring candidate; there's little evidence that Hispanics are even paying attention to this election.

Theodore, you are certainly a Democrat cheerleader. When are you going to get it through your skull that Texas is a Republican state!

[Bubba_Leroy]

And we should care what a far left wing hack like Dave NcNeely thinks because ... ?

[CyberAnt]

These people are all saying the same thing. All the liberal papers are predicting victory this November.

This usually means they are losing big time and they know it. The plan is to get the GOP to stay home because the dems are going to win anyway.

Old trick - doesn't work anymore. GOP will show up in great numbers and defeat this stinkin' mess of dems.

[Texas_Jarhead]

I think he's just concerned about the potential for a Democratic victory. In my mind the worst thing that Republicans can do is take vitory for granted. It's too damn important. As a side bar, I have not seen one tv commercial for either candidate yet.

[HHFi]

I live near downtown Dallas in the heart of Little Mexico. I am surrounded by Hispanics, shop at a Mexican supermarket, and have to close the window to keep down the volume of the Tejano music so I can work. In other words, I know Texas Hispanics as well as just about any gringo anywhere. And I don't believe there is going to be an unusually big Hispanic turnout for the simple reason that Hispanics, in general, don't vote.

A prominant local Democrat, Domingo Garcia, ran in the last mayoral election here on the same principle: with a Hispanic on the ballot, there will be a huge Hispanic turnout, and Dallas will have an Hispanic mayor. Result: he came in a distant third.

There is something in the Hispanic culture that makes people very wary of entering an official office of the government, showing an ID and signing a paper. Many are suspicious of government authority and they keep very much to themselves. We've even gotten Spanish-speaking representatives to invite our Hispanic neighbors to Crime Watch and homeowners' association meetings, and it's almost impossible to get them to come. The last time , we mailed and posted invitations in Spanish all over, saying it was about an important issue that could get them a big property tax break, and held it in a Hispanic church. Two people showed up. So forgive me if I'm skeptical of the "huge Hispanic vote turnout" theory.

[sinkspur]

And I don't believe there is going to be an unusually big Hispanic turnout for the simple reason that Hispanics, in general, don't vote.

And they won't be transported to the polls on buses on election day because they'll be working.

That, and Tony Sanchez is just not a very inspiring candidate.

[Dog Gone]

Kirk and Sanchez will be defeated handily. I'm hoping Dewhurst will hold off Sharp.

I have a problem with some of the folks here who post Democrat wishful thinking as gospel. It gets really old.

[kilohertz]

That, and Tony Sanchez is just not a very inspiring candidate.

OK, Sanchez is not particularly inspiring, and probably also a crook, but Rick Perry is positively boring. Democrats can win in Texas, just look at Ma Richards. We may not be as safe as you think.

[sinkspur]

Democrats can win in Texas, just look at Ma Richards. We may not be as safe as you think.

I doubt Ma Richards could win the governorship today.

[Theodore R.]

I hope I am wrong, skinspur, and that the top of the Democrat ticket in TX falls far short. If not, there is going to be "no joy in Mudville (TX)" on the night of Nov. 5, 2002. The liberal media will interpret a victory by Ron Kirk as a national repudiation of Republican no matter what else much happens.

[Theodore R.]

it's not a presidential election year

Yes, and 20 years ago, the TX "democracy" led by Lloyd M.
Bentsen, Jr., and Mark White swept every statewide office. It was the last time that the Democrats scored that well. This year Ron Kirk is the new "Lloyd Bentsen." Kirk in fact defeated Bentsen's nephew in the first Democrat primary on March 12. This Kirk candidacy is something to take seriously, I believe. But many on this forum think Kirk can't win.

[Theodore R.]

Ann Willis "Ma" Richards, 69, says she is the spiritual "mother" of Democrat senatorial nominee Ron Kirk. Governor Richards appointed Kirk as one of her secretaries of state. Ann Richards will always have a certain following of the dispossessed in TX. She cannot be dismissed out of hand.

[rwfromkansas]

bump

[Ms. AntiFeminazi]

As a side bar, I have not seen one tv commercial for either candidate yet.

Kirk and Sanchez started slinging mud last week. It's all over Dallas TV. I haven't seen ads for Cornyn or Perry.

[Ms. AntiFeminazi]

This Kirk candidacy is something to take seriously, I believe.

Hahahahaha. Thanks for the laugh. The only way he wins is by voter fraud.

[kilohertz]

I doubt Ma Richards could win the governorship today.

Of course not, now that everybody knows what a lousy governor she was. :) But if the Dems could find a Clinton-like candidate who could talk the "moderate" talk and then govern as a Leftist, there are a lot of Texans who might be taken in. The Repubs have Texas now, but they'll have to work to hold it.

Anyway, as far as I could tell from some brief googling, Perry was well ahead of Sanchez (9 pts) as of mid-September.

[speekinout]

And I don't believe there is going to be an unusually big Hispanic turnout for the simple reason that Hispanics, in general, don't vote.

I found that out during some volunteer work I did for our city. The Hispanics just wanted to be left alone.
We also have a problem that might not exist in Texas. The major Hispanic groups are divided by country of origin - Mexico, Cuba, various SA countries; and they don't like each other much. We were naive enough to try to get a consensus from "the Hispanic community" on several issues. That'll never happen. Some of them will vote against the others just out of spite.
I would assume that the majority of Hispanics in Texas are really Mexicans, but anyone who is counting on all Hispanics to vote alike is as naive as I once was.