Lili Prompts Texas Evacuation Order -- Winds Could Hit 130 MPH !

Washington Post ^ | 10/2/2002 | Cain Burdeau

[ex-Texan]

Lili Prompts Texas Evacuation Order -- Wind Could Hit 130 MPH !

By Cain Burdeau

Associated Press Writer

NEW IBERIA, La. –– Packing 110 mph wind, Hurricane Lili gained strength and churned Wednesday toward the Gulf Coast, where residents braced for the second major storm in a week.

About 330,000 people in Texas' Jefferson and Oranges counties were told to evacuate early Wednesday after a tidal surge of more than 9 feet pounded the surf.

Coastal residents of Louisiana also scrambled for higher ground and barricaded their homes and businesses, and Louisiana Gov. Mike Foster declared a state of emergency, less than a week after Tropical Storm Isidore blew through the region. That storm flooded hundreds of homes and caused an estimated $100 million in damage.

Lili, which was expected to make landfall Thursday, entered the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a Category 2 hurricane with wind of 110 mph.

Forecasters said it could strengthen to Category 3, with wind up to 130 mph, on Wednesday.

* * *

Compared to Isidore, "Lili will have greater impact, but in a smaller area," Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, said Wednesday on CBS' "Early Show." "It's not as large as Isidore, but it is much more powerful."

In Texas, officials advised the 250,000 residents of the Beaumont-Port Arthur area and 80,000 residents of neighboring Orange County to head inland early Wednesday.

"The latest forecasts still have this thing running down our throat," Beaumont Mayor Evelyn Lord said late Tuesday.

NASA postponed Wednesday's shuttle launch because of the storm. The space agency said it did not want to take a chance of launching Atlantis from Cape Canaveral, Fla., only to have the hurricane bear down on Houston, home to Mission Control. NASA said Thursday would be the earliest the launch could occur.

In Grand Isle, a vulnerable barrier island south of New Orleans, workers raced to repair a 2,500-foot beach levee washed out by Isidore. Grand Isle officials ordered a mandatory evacuation beginning Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, New Orleans officials mulled over possible evacuation problems.

[ex-Texan]

* ping *

[dennis1x]

Winds have likely exceeded 130mph now, pressure is dropping VERY rapidly and Lili is likely a Cat4 storm.

[chemicalman]

Just heard on radio...winds at 135 mph...CAT 4!

[Dog Gone]

Hurricane Lili Special Advisory Number 45
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 02, 2002

...Lili strengthens rapidly to dangerous category 4 hurricane...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from east of High Island Texas
to the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Preparations to protect
life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed
to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Freeport Texas to 
High Island...and from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the 
Alabama/Florida border...including New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain.

 
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Lili was located
near latitude 25.3 north...longitude  89.4 west or about 325 miles
south of New Orleans Louisiana.

 
Lili is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...and this general 
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 135 mph...with 
higher gusts.  This makes Lili a dangerous category 4 hurricane on 
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Additional strengthening 
is possible this afternoon and tonight.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  45 miles from the 
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 
miles.  Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland up to
150 miles near the track of the center of Lili.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter 
is  941 mb...27.79 inches.

A life-threatening storm surge of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide
levels is likely near and to the east of where the center crosses 
the coast.  This surge could spread well inland across the low-
lying areas of the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible along the
track of Lili.

 
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...25.3 N... 89.4 W.  Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 941 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

[Lokibob]

Data from a buoy in the Gulf,  nearest one I could find to LILI.

Look at the peak wind and the wave height is 22 feet.

 

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
MARS payload
25.92 N 89.68 W (25°55'12"N 89°40'48"W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 3,246.0 m
Watch circle radius: 3,134 yards

Latest NWS Marine Forecast

Important Notice to Mariners

Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

---

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. Unit of Measure:   Time Zone:  

Conditions at 42001 as of
(12:00 pm CDT)
1700 GMT on 10/02/2002:

	Wind Direction (WDIR):	ENE ( 60 deg )
	Wind Speed (WSPD):	44.7 kts
	Wind Gust (GST):	56.3 kts
	Wave Height (WVHT):	22.0 ft
	Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
	Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.54 in
	Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.18 in ( Falling Rapidly )
	Air Temperature (ATMP):	78.1 °F
	Water Temperature (WTMP):	82.4 °F
	Dew Point (DEWP):	73.2 °F

Continuous Winds

TIME (CDT)	WDIR	WSPD
11:00 am	NE ( 52 deg )	35.0 kts
11:10 am	ENE ( 58 deg )	35.2 kts
11:20 am	ENE ( 58 deg )	38.7 kts
11:30 am	ENE ( 59 deg )	41.4 kts
11:40 am	NE ( 54 deg )	40.0 kts
11:50 am	ENE ( 61 deg )	44.9 kts

Previous 24 observations

MM	DD	HH CDT		WDIR	WSPD kts	GST kts	WVHT ft	DPD sec	APD sec	MWD	PRES in	PTDY in	ATMP °F	WTMP °F	DEWP °F	SAL	VIS mi	TIDE ft
10	02	11 am		NE	31.1	44.7	17.4	12	7.8	ESE	29.63	-0.10	79.2	82.4	73.9	-	-	-
10	02	10 am		NE	33.0	40.8	16.1	12	7.8	ESE	29.67	-0.05	79.0	82.4	73.6	-	-	-
10	02	9 am		NE	29.1	33.0	-	-	-	-	29.72	-0.03	75.4	82.4	71.6	-	-	-
10	02	8 am		ENE	25.3	31.1	14.1	12	7.3	ESE	29.73	-0.04	78.6	82.4	73.6	-	-	-
10	02	7 am		NE	29.1	33.0	13.1	11	6.8	ESE	29.72	-	81.9	82.4	75.4	-	-	-
10	02	6 am		ENE	29.1	36.9	10.8	9	6.1	E	29.75	-0.05	82.4	82.4	75.2	-	-	-
10	02	5 am		ENE	27.2	31.1	8.9	7	5.6	ENE	29.77	-0.07	80.1	82.4	72.7	-	-	-

[1Old Pro]

[Lion's Cub]

This doesn't look good at all. Some people will not evacuate, and I think we can expect a death toll.

I know someone was saying that it might lose some strength, and I hope that turns out to be true. But I sure wouldn't want to bet my life on it.

[wardaddy]

Excellent snag Loki....I had no idea one could mine these reports.

[Pete]

The latest as of 5PM EST.

Expires:No;;428652
WTNT33 KNHC 022039
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 LILI CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND A 
NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES 
LILI AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- 
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE 
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD 
INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI.  NOAA
BUOY 42001 RECENTLY REPORTED AN EIGHT-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 105
MPH WITH A GUST TO 148 MPH.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 938 
MB...27.70 INCHES.

A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES 
THE COAST.  THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS 
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N... 90.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

Texas' Jefferson and Oranges counties were told to evacuate early Wednesday

They may have been asked, or it might have been suggested that they leave, but they were not TOLD to. There is no law that mandates an evacuation in Texas. We just hate being TOLD what we can and can't do. ;-)

[rmlew]

Have Natural Gas prices risen yet?

[Moonmad27]

You're right - TELLING us Texans to do something is not likely to get us moving! However, I know some folks in Beaumont who just emailed that, having been told or suggested to, they suddenly have a desire to visit Tyler or Dallas - so northward they go!

[Russell Scott]

Somebody is praying, its loosing steam quickly. It looks like the only thing its going to kill is the drought. By the way, they don't teach you this on the weather channel. Hurricanes are critical in balancing the Earth's production of oxygen and carbon dioxide. They do much more good than harm in the grand scale of things.