Expires:No;;428652 WTNT33 KNHC 022039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 LILI CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LILI AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI. NOAA BUOY 42001 RECENTLY REPORTED AN EIGHT-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 105 MPH WITH A GUST TO 148 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE TRACK. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN