Posted on 10/01/2002 5:43:21 PM PDT by Vidalia
The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism is forecasting 1.7 percent growth in Hawaii's gross state product for 2002 and significant growth in tourism and new jobs for 2003.
"The forecast reflects Hawaii's continuing recovery from the effects of last year's national recession and the devastating effects of Sept. 11 on the travel industry," said DBEDT Director Seiji Naya. "We have made up much of those losses this year and should complete that recovery in 2003 as long as the U.S. economy remains on track."
Visitor arrivals are expected to increase 3.5 percent by year's end. Gains this year have brought back about one-third of visitors lost in 2001. Visitors from the U.S. mainland helped offset the loss of Japanese and other international markets. However, Hawaii's job market is not expected to recover until sometime next year, according to the forecast.
Total wage and salary job count will end the year 0.2 percent below 2001, DBEDT said, while job growth in 2003 is expected to increase 1.4 percent, adding nearly 8,000 jobs to the market. The job count is expected to grow through 2005 if economic conditions continue to improve.
Gross state product and personal income are expected to show moderate gains over the next two years. The GSP will increase gradually from this year's expected 1.7 gain to a 2.0 percent growth rate by 2005, DBEDT said.
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Inflation as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index will remain low at 1.2 percent for this year, DBEDT said, and is expected to remain in the 1 percent to 2 percent range through 2005.
The state's economic outlook and analysis of current economic conditions at the state and county levels are contained in the latest issue of DBEDT's Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report, which can be found at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/qser/.
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