McKinneys testing Barnes' skill

One of the most enduring voting coalitions for the Democratic Party has been African-Americans and Jewish-Americans. Now a major breach between these groups could hasten a breakup of this dependable Democratic coalition. And the spark that may cause the political explosion could be lit in Georgia.

Despite the presence of Sen. Joe Lieberman on the Democratic ticket in 2000, as the first Jewish-American vice presidential candidate, Democrats received fewer Jewish-American votes than ever before. Although Democrats still carried the Jewish-American vote, the dropoff in their percentage of the Jewish-American vote created concern.

Even more troubling from the Democratic viewpoint is that, according to polls, between 25 percent and 30 percent of Jewish-Americans are identifying with the Republican Party. This is the largest percentage of Jewish support for Republicans in history. Additionally, financial support from Jewish-Americans — which had been almost exclusively for Democrats — is now beginning to be equally distributed between the parties. This can be attributed to President George W. Bush's strong support for Israel compared with what Jewish-Americans view as lukewarm support by Democratic leaders, the war on terrorism and Iraq, and a feeling among many Jewish-Americans lately of shared social values with Republicans.

African-American voters, on the other hand, continue to poll as the strongest base of support for Democrats. One of the underlying reasons is opposition to Bush's pro-Israeli stance in the Middle East.

In two congressional primaries this year, these two groups have clashed primarily over this very issue. In both instances, the African-American incumbent has been defeated and attributed their loss to Jewish influence.

One of these defeated incumbents was Georgia's own Cynthia McKinney and the other Alabama's Earl Hilliard. Cynthia has long posed a major problem for Democrats in maintaining the coalition of Jewish-Americans and African-American voters. Part of the reason was Cynthia's remarks on the Middle East and avid pro-Arab stance. The other part was her father, state Rep. Billy McKinney, who over the years has appeared more and more anti-Semitic in his own remarks.

Following Cynthia's remarks about Rudy Giuliani's refusal to accept a Saudi prince's $10 million, word was passed to Gov. Roy Barnes and state Democratic leaders that she had to tone down her rhetoric. The governor passed this message to her, hoping that it would be the end of the matter. Far from it; the warning sent her into a rage that led to her remarks about Bush and Sept. 11.

For Barnes, that was the last straw. Not only was she damaging national Democrats with Jewish-American voters, she was becoming an embarrassment to Georgia and could hinder his chances on the national ticket in 2004. So the word was sent out that support that had been there for Cynthia in the past would no longer be there for her. Thus the explanation for Zell Miller's and Hank Aaron's donations to Denise Majette and the election eve announcement by Andrew Young that he had not given Cynthia's campaign authorization to use his endorsement from 2000. More than anything else, the lack of support from the Democratic power structure did Cynthia in, more than crossover voters or out-of-district contributions.

With Cynthia thus dispatched, the governor believed he had appeased national Democrats and rid himself of the McKinney issue. At the same time, the governor felt damage with the African-American leadership in the state would be minimal. What he had not figured on was Cynthia's father, Billy.

On an election eve television interview, Billy McKinney stated that the reason Cynthia was in such a tough campaign was because of Jews, spelling out the word J-E-W-S. His comments drew national attention. The comments no doubt led to both McKinneys losing their races.

Democrats in 1998 were quick to attack Republican Mitch Skandalakis for his ill-advised TV commercials attacking Atlanta Mayor Bill Campbell, labeling them racist. Indeed Democrats are quick to condemn perceived racism in politics. These Democrats are right — racism and bigotry have no place in politics. Yet in the case of Billy McKinney, the Democrats are strangely silent. As Republicans and Jewish-American leaders call upon Barnes and others to denounce McKinney, national Democrats watch the governor's next move.

To a large part, state Democrats have been trying to ignore the issue, hoping that now that Billy and Cynthia have been defeated it will be a nonissue. If they address it at all, they say that Billy has suffered enough and is ill. What they are hoping is that both father and daughter will accept their defeats and support the party.

That appears to be wishful thinking. In the past few days, the McKinneys have publicly blamed the Democratic leadership for their defeats. Cynthia has been pushing the Congressional Black Caucus to support her in a move to order all the information relating to FBI activities in the late 1960s made public. (Cynthia believes that will prove that the FBI was involved with Martin Luther King Jr.'s assassination). She has also indicated that she may leave the Democratic Party for the Green Party, either running as their presidential nominee in 2004 or as their vice presidential nominee with Ralph Nader.

This puts Barnes and national Democrats in a quandary. Originally, national Democrats considered Cynthia, and to a lesser extent her father, the governor's problem. Now this latest threat has national implications. In 2000, Ralph Nader polled enough in Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Florida, Maine, Vermont and several other states to be the margin of victory. Nader's voters were for the most part Democratic. Cynthia's presence on the ticket would no doubt increase his share of the vote by drawing African-American voters. In a close election, a shift of 2 percent to 5 percent in key states by Democratic voters to the Green Party could insure a Republican victory.

Silence and appeasing the McKinneys could increase the drift of Jewish-American voters to the Republican Party. For the governor, it could destroy whatever shot he has on being included on the national ticket. National Democrats might be able to explain away why they stayed silent on the McKinneys, arguing that it was up to the Georgia leadership to handle them. Locally, many Georgians who are disgusted with politics of hatred and division may become disgusted with the governor for not denouncing her and give Sonny Perdue another look.

If Barnes and the Democrats denounce the McKinneys, Billy and Cynthia most certainly will switch to the Green Party. And while Bush and the Republicans will not likely increase their share of the African-American vote considerably in the short term, Democrats could lose their share due to African-Americans staying at home or voting for Cynthia and the Greens. In the upcoming election, it could hurt the governor and other Democrats who are dependent on a large African-American vote for victory. Indeed, African-American turnout in 1998 was one of the key reasons for Barnes' victory.

Barnes has been described as a masterful politician, perhaps one of the best not only in Georgia but nationally as well. How he tackles this issue will be a telling sign of his skills.

Bowers, a former Georgia attorney general, is a partner at Meadows, Ichter & Bowers.

"Notice that the author said that this will be a test of Barnes' skills and not Barnes' principles"

You're right! And I am loving every minute of the fact that Barnes 'n crew are probably having quite a few sleepless nights trying to figure a way to weasel out of this dilemma.

Despite the presence of Sen. Joe Lieberman on the Democratic ticket in 2000, as the first Jewish-American vice presidential candidate, Democrats received fewer Jewish-American votes than ever before.

First time I'd ever heard this stat.

There was an article in The Jewish Week a few days ago, stating that there was no anticipated shift to the GOP amongst Jewish voters. In case you're interested, here's a link:

Poll: No Jewish-GOP Surge

Interesting that this article points out that Jewish support for Democrats began to drop EVEN BEFORE Bush came out so strongly in favor of Israel, and that even the presence of Lieberman on Gore's ticket failed to pull in as many of their votes as in the previous election. That's a very encouraging sign, because historically most Jews have considered Christian conservatives to be their enemies. The Bob Jones controversy that McCain and the press whipped up was meant to solidify support for Gore among this constituency, as well as to drive a wedge between conservative Protestants and Catholics. Instead, it may have backfired among more religious-minded Jews, just as it backfired among sensible Catholics and Protestants.

On the other hand, I doubt whether the Green Party would be crazy enough to sign up Cynthia McKinney. What could she possibly bring them but trouble? Ralph Nader is a first-class troublemaker, but his concerns are very different from hers, to say the least.

I don't think the McKinneys have anywhere to go at this point. They are washed up. But the controversy will linger and continue to expose the flaws in the Democrat coalition.

Interesting article. But it was a Gallup poll, and the article admits that its methodology was questionable. "In a series of polls — combined because individual surveys do not include enough Jewish respondents to be statistically reliable."

"There was an article in The Jewish Week a few days ago, stating that there was no anticipated shift to the GOP amongst Jewish voters."

The Jewish Week is published in New York. We are talking here about a trend in Georgia. New York needs a "McKinney family" and then maybe they could enjoy this trend as well.

The Jewish Week is published in New York. We are talking here about a trend in Georgia.

I was responding to Coop's post about nation-wide Jewish vote totals in the 2000 Presidential election.

Besides, your article is talking about the possibility of a national trend that might be beginning in Georgia. As the lead sentence in your article states:

"Now a major breach between these groups could hasten a breakup of this dependable Democratic coalition. And the spark that may cause the political explosion could be lit in Georgia."

I doubt whether the Green Party would be crazy enough to sign up Cynthia McKinney.

The Green party has already extended an offer to McKinney. The article was posted here on FR.

If all of the Green party's platform were implemented, we would have a communist form of government. The Green party IS the american communist party. That's not what they call themselves, but they are.

Communist governemnts have historicly been anti-semetic. I don't know why, but there seems to be some correlation. The more a government drifts left towards a socialist/communist form of government, the more anti-semitic it becomes.

Given how far to the left the Green party is, I wouldn't be suprised to find a strong, anti-semetic movement within the Green party.

it may have backfired among more religious-minded Jews, just as it backfired among sensible Catholics and Protestants.

It certainly backfired with this Catholic. Bob Jones University does not take one thin dime in my tax money, and is perfectly entitled to say whatever stupid thing they like. And I should point out, for however "hateful" the left says they are, no one from Bob Jones University has ever thrown used menstrual napkins inside a Catholic church, put elephant dung on pictures of the Blessed Virgin or put a crucifix in urine. That's all been done by the left with my tax money!

I doubt whether the Green Party would be crazy enough to sign up Cynthia McKinney

A couple other threads here on FreeRepublic report she has already been approached to run publicly by several high-ups in the green party. The Greens need 5% of the vote to get public funding through the presidential campaign fund, Cynthia might do much better than Ralph at getting a significant percentage of the black vote. The Greens aren't so left that they don't want the cash!

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.