Isidore, will she turn north?

[NautiNurse]

Isidore seems to be drawn to the very edge of the coast for some reason

That was explained somewhere I heard/saw/read today. Please correct me if I don't get it quite right...it's because the intense storm is in such close proximity to land, without the water to the south to feed it, that is is drawn toward it, trying to keep together. ??

I don't think I said that quite right--but it sure came across as a self-preservation measure for the storm.

Nelson111? How far off was I?

[dennis1x]

the latest AVN run even more north now, watch out La.

[NautiNurse]

FNC interviewing Stacy Stewart of NHC. Recon got a late start today. As far as he can see, everything points to a U.S. Gulf Coast landfall, of major hurricane intensity.

[blam]

"That runway on DI is what, 3000ft? I can get my commander in there if the wind ain't too bad."

I don't know but I think they land the Coast Guard Lear there every day. It comes by here each morning and evening, don't know where else it could be going/coming.

[rwfromkansas]

She does not appear to be turning southwest yet like some models show her doing; I would say she may stay slightly to the north of the official track, which would help her. I am noticing a decrease in convection on the western side, but this should pick up once she gets away from the Yuc.

The latest Nogaps shows a direct hit on New Orleans......

[NELSON111]

It's more of a product of its environment right now. There is an upper low south of it and it is strengthening some. They tend to wobble a bit when they do that. There could be some land/storm interaction involved as well.

[dennis1x]

latest recon still found 935mb, winds only at 110kt flight level, 125mph is probably a reach at the surface.

[NautiNurse]

Found another site--has the animated tracks for several models. All of them are good to go with the Submit key, except GFDL--the first drop-down has Isidore as an option, as well as the other storms out there. Tropical Cyclone Model Animations

OMG--all the ones that go out to 120 hours are in agreement for a Louisiana landfall.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks

[Wingsofgold]

Good news, thanks. If I'm too late to drive in from Mobile, I'll come in there. Try to, anyhow. If it makes a turn to the North I'll scramble.

[rwfromkansas]

The GFDL also shows another storm coming in behind Isidore....TD 13. None of the others show this amounting to much at the end of their runs.

[blam]

"Good news, thanks. If I'm too late to drive in from Mobile, I'll come in there. Try to, anyhow. If it makes a turn to the North I'll scramble."

Why will you be coming in to DI?

[rwfromkansas]

Also the GFDL was showing Kyle coming west toward the U.S...

Lucklily it now shows it turning east after coming west for awhile.

[NautiNurse]

TD 13 = Lili wanna be. I had trouble tracking that one through the models. While I was putzing with some model somewhere, one had a storm striking the NC-VA border. It wasn't an animation, and I couldn't see where it came from. Oh well...

[blam]

Is there an updated chart like the one in post #52, or is it updating automatically?

[rwfromkansas]

Update......Cancun radar appears to show the storm heading southwest now and will hit part of the northwest corner of the Yuc....Teh latest image shows half of the eye over land now.

The storm will likely weaken to a Cat 2 today, not strengthen.

[Wingsofgold]

To get some things Letitring wants outta her house. And I reakon, try ta tend to it some. Move some things inside and drop some storm shutters down. She's in Ok. with her sister.

[Lanza]

"I lived on the Texas Gulf Coast for over 20 years. They always turn north"

I think Gilbert never made a turn and went in a straight line. Does anyone else remember that one? I could be wrong, but I remember one hurricane that was very bizarre. Everyone's predictions were wrong. Houston geared up for it to make the turn in the Gulf, and it just kept going in a vertical line to Mexico.

[rwfromkansas]

Actually, this thing may go fairly deep into the Yuc......

[rwfromkansas]

could go down to a Cat 1 before moving out if it does so.....the sat makes it look like it is going straight south....if it does that it won't threaten the U.S. at all.