Isidore, will she turn north?

[NautiNurse]

Track Models September 22, 2002 21Z Advisory #27

[Sen Jack S. Fogbound]

You can put me on this bump list.

Thanks! Sen Jack S. Fogbound

[Dog Gone]

Louisiana seems to be most in the crosshairs, although I don't like the fact that one model is drawn directly over my second home east of Corpus Christi.

I went out this afternoon and got supplies, already noticing that other people had already had the same idea. I think by this time on Tuesday, we'll have a pretty good idea of where this storm is going. Tomorrow, I think we'll still be guessing.

[NautiNurse]

Most recent data I found for the average track model errors. At 72 hours, all but one are off by at least 200 miles.

NORTH ATLANTIC
2000 AVERAGE MODEL TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR A HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE (EARLY)

	       12     24     36     48     72 
OFCL          34.4   68.4  102.4  139.1  237.9  
CLIP          40.4   84.6  135.2  189.9  312.6  
A98E          35.4   62.4   94.2  124.4  215.3  
BAMD          34.8   64.1   93.7  131.9  228.8  
BAMM          36.1   67.5  101.1  133.5  216.8  
BAMS          45.2   86.5  130.4  173.3  229.4  
LBAR          34.9   73.8  117.9  167.5  289.3  
OFCI          39.0   75.0  112.0  153.2  266.5  
AVNI          40.7   68.7   99.6  117.7  200.0  
GUNS          28.8   53.3   82.0  113.7  208.3  
GFDI          34.2   60.0   93.1  125.2  185.9  
UKMI          40.2   72.4  110.5  145.2  252.3  
NGPI          41.9   79.3  103.8  146.6  293.3  
GFNI          40.5   73.5  109.1  144.1  258.6  

#CASES        105    97     87     80     66    

I wonder how this compares to throwing darts at a map while wearing a blindfold?

[cajungirl]

Time to start making gumbo!!

[LurkerNoMore!]

You've got mail.

[FireTrack]

Looks like its headed straight for Lake Charles according to the latest info on www.intellicast.com.

[PFKEY]

Damn, I supposed to fly into nola on friday for a weekend anniversary. Whats the weather man saying about next weekend? Like they can tell you what tomorrow will bring!

[LurkerNoMore!]

They can always tell you what tomorrow will bring..... It is their accuracy that tends to fluctuate. ;-)

[PFKEY]

And they do tend to tell with an air of authority. I can read a script from the weather service too. Can I be a meteorologist?

The poor weather guys in my home town are still trying to live down their prediction of a dusting of snow that turned out to be about 2 foot worth. Not one of them from the four local stations deviated from the weather service forcast of a dusting.