GERMAN ELECTION (Running Thread): Schroeder by a Nosehair

Die Welt- translated ^ | 9/22/02 | Die Welt

[RobFromGa]

Election turnout probably smaller than 1998

Large opinion

Berlin/Rostock (dpa) - with the election to the Bundestag a smaller participation than before drew four years starting from 1998 lay it Germany far with 82,2 per cent in the late Sunday afternoon. However the returning officers reported high letter voter at the same time of a ratio. Everywhere the letter voters were not already taken in account. Thus a factor of uncertainty remained existing.

As one inquires around approximately three hours before locking of the polling stations resulted in, to against 15.00 o'clock in most Lands of the Federal Republic a clearly lower election turnout was registered. In Saxonia-Anhalt the participation lay at this time approximately 15 points under the values of the yearly 1998, in other Lands of the Federal Republic up to eight points. Also in the capital went to Berlin with herbstlich to cool weather clearly less voter to the urns.

On the other hand there was the tendency in few other Lands of the Federal Republic also to an easily higher election turnout - in such a way in Schleswig-Holstein and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where at the same time a new federal state parliament was selected.

In Saxonia the returning officers spoke first of a surprisingly large resonance, then the interest decreased/went back however clearly. Also in Bavaria the choice encountered in the first hours in some cities a substantially larger interest than 1998. There the participation up to 12 per cent points in the comparison rose to the same time before four years. Against noon this tendency decreased/went back likewise, of a clear minus was later spoken. It was similar in North Rhine-Westphalia and Hamburg.

From other Lands of the Federal Republic a rather weak resonance was determined. In Hessen, Thuringia, Saarland and Bremen the values decreased/went back. Also in Rhineland-Palatinate, Brandenburg and Lower Saxony the crush was smaller than 1998. In Baden-Wuerttemberg it meant: Election turnout constantly.

The polling stations for the election to the Bundestag had opened o'clock punctually at 08.00. 61,2 million Federal citizen were called to select a new parliament. With the election of the federal parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were entitled to vote about 1.4 million citizen.

After last inquiries and prognoses to the exit the SPD with Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was appropriate for the election to the Bundestag scarcely before the union with her candidate for the chancellorship Edmund Stoiber (CSU). Since also the smaller parties FDP and the Green were strongly estimated approximately in each case equal, the continuation of the red-green coalition was considered as uncertain. For a government majority in the parliament it could be crucial whether the Party of Democratic Socialism draws again into the Bundestag or not.

The Social Democrats set to come into the proximity of their result from 1998 to. At that time they reached 40.9 per cent of the secondary voices. CDU/CSU had slipped before four years to 35,1 per cent, their secondaryworst result with elections to the Bundestag. The Greens reached 6.7 per cent, the FDP came on 6,2 per cent. The Party of Democratic Socialism overcame the five-per cent hurdle with 5,1 per cent scarcely.

After last inquiries in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania a confirmation of the red-red coalition of SPD and Party of Democratic Socialism under head of the government Harald Ringstorff (SPD) applied as extremely probable. 1998 had the SPD 34.3, which reaches Party of Democratic Socialism 24.4 and the CDU 30.2 per cent.

[marajade]

I guess it gives a new meaning to the "old good ol' boy system."

[eabinga]

There are also a number of candidates, e.g. Scharping the former Defense Minister, who didn't win their Districts, but who are high on the party list, and therefore still have a seat in the next Bundestag.

It insures a bit of continuity of government. Those are the professional politicians.

Like I said, it's quite balanced.

[SkyRat]

But I don't understand the system that well either. Are the Greens getting 9.4% of the total Reichstag or 9.4% of those seats that are allocated on the basis of the national vote?

Err. It's the Bundestag.

Let's say a party get's 10% of the national votes. That means it get's 58,9 (10% of 598 seats) total.

The direct voted are in the 58 seats.

Let's say our party has 10% and won 20 districts. That means the winner of the discritcs get their seat, wich leaves us 38,9 seats (10% =58,9 - 20 seats = 38,9 seats).

[marajade]

" ... it's quite balanced."

We must have different definitions for the word "balanced."

[eabinga]

Well that means McCain would still be there because no Republican in AZ would vote against him...

On the other hand, it can also keep your favorite politician in...

[RobFromGa]

So, one good thing about this election is that the Commies (PDS) lost all their seats but the two they won directly in the ex-Communist capital of East Berlin.

The bad news is that the former Commies just voted Green, which is the same as Communists, just wrapped up in a nice pro-Environment, save the Whales, pretty package.

Is this thing beyond hope for the right at this point?

[marajade]

"On the other hand, it can also keep your favorite politician in..."

I don't know if I'd agree: McCain is really that bad...

[eabinga]

We must have different definitions for the word "balanced."

Probably. One imprtant criteria for me is that minority voices aren't squelched out completely.

The Germans don't suffer as badly from the "wasted vote" sydrome like we do here in the US.

[arkfreepdom]

"Is this thing beyond hope for the right at this point?"


No, if the same idiots are returned to office they will continue to run Germany into the ground and the right won't be blamed.

[marajade]

"The Germans don't suffer as badly from the 'wasted vote' sydrome like we do here in the US."

Who says we in the US suffer from that? You would never hear me saying that...

Is there still any possible way for Schroeder to lose?

[Torie]

Thanks. I understand now. What a trip toy. I had to reread portions of your post four times to finally get it. It is the excess of districts won in a state over the popular vote percentage won in each state times the inital seat allocation on a federal level. Whew.

[eabinga]

You would never hear me saying that...

Doesn't matter if you say it or not, it exists. It's a winner take all two party system.

I often "waste" my vote, because I often vote 3rd party.

I don't consider it wasted, some would though.

[Torie]

302 spd, 299 cdu, 2 pds. The English speaking lady says that are more overhangs yet to calculate, but she mangled the explanation of how the overhang works if the above explanation is correct (and I am sure it is), so she may just be an out of the loop info babe.

[marajade]

"I don't consider it wasted, some would though."

I would...

Can Schroeder still lose?

[Redbob]

"Can anyone make any predictions based on this translated article with less than 2 hours to go?"

Can anyone make any sense whatsoever out of this article?

[Torie]

German TV is having an English bit now.

http://kleist.dwelle.de/audio/live_tv_de.html

[marajade]

Thanks...

Can Schoeder still lose?

[x]

What, then, is the point of the district elections? Is it just to encourage small local or regional parties? If I understand correctly, it doesn't seem to make very much difference for the big parties that pass the 5% hurdle.

[OldFriend]

The only post that makes any sense at all is post #331

[Torie]

Apparently, but who knows?