GERMAN ELECTION (Running Thread): Schroeder by a Nosehair

Die Welt- translated ^ | 9/22/02 | Die Welt

[RobFromGa]

Election turnout probably smaller than 1998

Large opinion

Berlin/Rostock (dpa) - with the election to the Bundestag a smaller participation than before drew four years starting from 1998 lay it Germany far with 82,2 per cent in the late Sunday afternoon. However the returning officers reported high letter voter at the same time of a ratio. Everywhere the letter voters were not already taken in account. Thus a factor of uncertainty remained existing.

As one inquires around approximately three hours before locking of the polling stations resulted in, to against 15.00 o'clock in most Lands of the Federal Republic a clearly lower election turnout was registered. In Saxonia-Anhalt the participation lay at this time approximately 15 points under the values of the yearly 1998, in other Lands of the Federal Republic up to eight points. Also in the capital went to Berlin with herbstlich to cool weather clearly less voter to the urns.

On the other hand there was the tendency in few other Lands of the Federal Republic also to an easily higher election turnout - in such a way in Schleswig-Holstein and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where at the same time a new federal state parliament was selected.

In Saxonia the returning officers spoke first of a surprisingly large resonance, then the interest decreased/went back however clearly. Also in Bavaria the choice encountered in the first hours in some cities a substantially larger interest than 1998. There the participation up to 12 per cent points in the comparison rose to the same time before four years. Against noon this tendency decreased/went back likewise, of a clear minus was later spoken. It was similar in North Rhine-Westphalia and Hamburg.

From other Lands of the Federal Republic a rather weak resonance was determined. In Hessen, Thuringia, Saarland and Bremen the values decreased/went back. Also in Rhineland-Palatinate, Brandenburg and Lower Saxony the crush was smaller than 1998. In Baden-Wuerttemberg it meant: Election turnout constantly.

The polling stations for the election to the Bundestag had opened o'clock punctually at 08.00. 61,2 million Federal citizen were called to select a new parliament. With the election of the federal parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were entitled to vote about 1.4 million citizen.

After last inquiries and prognoses to the exit the SPD with Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was appropriate for the election to the Bundestag scarcely before the union with her candidate for the chancellorship Edmund Stoiber (CSU). Since also the smaller parties FDP and the Green were strongly estimated approximately in each case equal, the continuation of the red-green coalition was considered as uncertain. For a government majority in the parliament it could be crucial whether the Party of Democratic Socialism draws again into the Bundestag or not.

The Social Democrats set to come into the proximity of their result from 1998 to. At that time they reached 40.9 per cent of the secondary voices. CDU/CSU had slipped before four years to 35,1 per cent, their secondaryworst result with elections to the Bundestag. The Greens reached 6.7 per cent, the FDP came on 6,2 per cent. The Party of Democratic Socialism overcame the five-per cent hurdle with 5,1 per cent scarcely.

After last inquiries in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania a confirmation of the red-red coalition of SPD and Party of Democratic Socialism under head of the government Harald Ringstorff (SPD) applied as extremely probable. 1998 had the SPD 34.3, which reaches Party of Democratic Socialism 24.4 and the CDU 30.2 per cent.

[vbmoneyspender]

what are the possibilities for the maximum number of extra seats? Are we talking about a possibility of 10 extra seats here?

[marajade]

You weren't being sarcastic when you described the system as clever were you?

[Torie]

I see, so there are really two seperate elections, one a popular vote proportional election for half the seats, and the other a first past the post district election. Have I finally got it?

[eabinga]

I actually got that wrong...

The party that has 10% of the votes is entitled to 10% of the 598 seats. But if it has too many directly elected representatives, it gets extra seats.

[x]

Rob: Seats are won in two ways. By winning the most votes in a district and by winning more than five percent of the vote in the country as a whole.

The PDS won two seats in Berlin outright by getting the most votes in those districts. The five percent rule applies to those seats that are distributed on the basis of vote share in the whole country. The Greens won their seats because of their vote share in the country as a whole, not carrying any districts. The PDS only won seats on a district basis, not having crossed the five percent hurdle for representation on the basis of a share of the total nationwide vote.

If it looks complicated, it's better than it was in the interwar Weimar Republic, when even the smallest parties could pick up seats in the legislature on the basis of their share of the total national vote. A straight district, winner-take-all system would probably result in a more sensible and responsible politics, but the Germans still want to give some encouragement to minority parties.

Torie: The numbers will change because of the turn-out, or because of the catch-up effect or because one seat tips to a given party without affecting the total vote count. As in the US, one party can pick up a lot of seats while the total national vote count doesn't change, because they are projected to win in particular districts.

But I don't understand the system that well either. Are the Greens getting 9.4% of the total Reichstag or 9.4% of those seats that are allocated on the basis of the national vote? I suspect it's the former, which means they will end up with more of the delegates selected on the basis of the total national vote than their percentage share of the total vote would justify, because they didn't win any districts. They will have more of those "at large" seats than a strictly proportional share of those seats to make up for the district seats they didn't win, in order that the end result will equal their share of the total nationwide vote. That, if you can understand it, is my understanding, or misunderstanding of the system.

Those seats not won by district will be packed with those the party leader wants to put into the cabinet, or with party dignitaries who didn't carry their own seats.

[x]

Bingo.

[Dog]

Now you tell us......sheesh!!!!!!

:-)

[SkyRat]

Your first vote is for direct representation and your second vote is for a list of candidates provided by the party and they don't have to be the same..

Yes. My first vote went to a Indepent local, second vote for FDP.

[Darling Lili]

09-22-02 spaldo: 3rd computer forcast 39.6% / 37.1% / 9.2% / 7.2 / 4.1% & Gerhard intends to continue red/green coalation even with only 1 mandate ahead. let's see. HardMoney, cool down, Herta is done!

bradynet

[Lessismore]

Plus the overhang seats are calculated by Land, not nationally.

[Torie]

Ya there is a missing link here. The Greens got a share of 598 seats based on their percentage vote. Maybe you get an excess if you win outright a higher percentage of districts then your proportional share. That I think is the only thing that makes it work.

[eabinga]

Allocation of Seats in the 1998 Bundestag Election

In the 1998 Bundestag election, six parties, namely the SPD, the CDU and its Bavarian counterpart, the CSU (which forms a joint parliamentary group with the CDU but runs as a separate party), Alliance 90/The Greens, the F.D.P. and the PDS received at least five percent of all valid second votes cast, and were thus entitled to participate in the proportional allocation of seats at the federal level; between themselves, these parties accumulated a total of 46,408,690 second votes. None of the other parties that participated in the election reached the five percent threshold nor received any constituency mandates; therefore, these were excluded from the apportionment process.

The next step was to calculate the number of seats each one of the six qualifying parties was entitled to receive. The results were as follows:

	20,181,269   46,408,690	x	656	=	285.267963	for the SPD
	14,004,908   46,408,690	x	656	=	197.963348	for the CDU
	3,324,480   46,408,690	x	656	=	46.992468	for the CSU
	3,301,624   46,408,690	x	656	=	46.669392	for Alliance 90/The Greens
	3,080,955   46,408,690	x	656	=	43.550173	for the F.D.P.
and
	2,515,454   46,408,690	x	656	=	35.556656	for the PDS

At this point, the allocation of Bundestag seats stood as follows:

SPD	285
CDU	197
CSU	46
Alliance 90/The Greens	46
F.D.P.	43
PDS	35
Total	652

However, four of the 656 seats remained to be allocated. The highest decimal fractions were then determined, by sorting them in descending order, as shown below:

CSU	0.992468
CDU	0.963348
Alliance 90/The Greens	0.669392
PDS	0.556656
F.D.P.	0.550173
SPD	0.267963

Since the CSU, the CDU, Alliance 90/The Greens and the PDS had the four largest fractions, one seat was allocated to each of these parties. This operation completed the initial allocation of seats at the federal level in the following manner:

SPD	285
CDU	198
CSU	47
Alliance 90/The Greens	47
F.D.P.	43
PDS	36
Total	656

The seats obtained by each party were then distributed in proportion to the votes received by its Land lists. For example, in Nordrhein-Westfalen the SPD received 5,097,425 of the 20,181,269 second votes cast for the party. Since the party was awarded 285 Bundestag mandates at the federal level, the proportionate share of party mandates in this Land was calculated as follows:

	5,097,425   20,181,269	x	285	=	71.985866

for an initial total of 71 seats, which subsequently increased to 72 when all SPD mandates were allocated among its sixteen Land lists. The process was repeated with the CDU, Alliance 90/Greens, F.D.P. and PDS Land lists. In the case of the CSU, all its votes were cast in Bayern (Bavaria), the only state where the party is organized and contests elections, so no allocation among Land lists was necessary.

It should be noted that all Land lists of a party that qualifies for Bundestag representation participate in the Land-level allocation of party seats, even when they have received less than five percent of the vote in their respective Länder.

At this point, the direct mandates won by each party in a particular Land (if any) were deducted from its proportional seat allocation. For example, the 53 constituency seats won by the SPD in Nordrhein-Westfalen were subtracted from its proportional allocation of 72 seats, so the party was awarded nineteen list seats in that Land. In the case of Alliance 90/The Greens and the F.D.P. all their seats came from their respective party lists, as neither party won constituency seats.

However, in several Länder the number of constituency seats won by the SPD exceeded the Land list seat allocation. For example, in Brandenburg the SPD list was allocated nine seats, but the party secured twelve direct mandates, or three seats above the number to which it was entitled. As noted previously, the electoral law allows parties to keep these additional mandates. In this case, the SPD retained the surplus or overhang seats, and none of the individuals in the party Land list was elected. Nationwide, the SPD won thirteen overhang seats, thus securing 298 of the 669 seats in the expanded Bundestag.

Shortly thereafter, the SPD formed a coalition government with Alliance 90/The Greens. Although the overhang seats won by the SPD did not change the outcome of the election, the surplus mandates provided the ruling coalition with a comfortable Bundestag majority of twenty-one seats over the combined opposition parties, as opposed to a narrow eight-seat majority on a strictly proportional seat allocation.

[marajade]

I don't think I'd like that and this is why:

Because although I tend to vote Republican I don't like a few Republicans like McCain...

The way you all vote people like McCain are in regardless...

[UofORepublican]

The difference though is over in Germany and most other European countries you vote with your party AT ALL TIMES. On rare occasions they will let you vote what you want.

[eabinga]

The way you all vote people like McCain are in regardless...

Probably, the germans don't have public primaries though. So who is on the list is elected internally by party members.

[Torie]

No, no bingo, because then the Greens would have only half as many seats if the proportional thing was only for half the seats. They got 55 seats, which is the number when you divide their percentage vote (8.6%) by .929 (the percentage in play since two parties were squeezed out), and then multiply the quotient of 9.26% times 598 = 55.

[marajade]

"So who is on the list is elected internally by party members."

Well that means McCain would still be there because no Republican in AZ would vote against him...

I don't like this at all...

[Lessismore]

There are also a number of candidates, e.g. Scharping the former Defense Minister, who didn't win their Districts, but who are high on the party list, and therefore still have a seat in the next Bundestag.

[eabinga]

The difference though is over in Germany and most other European countries you vote with your party AT ALL TIMES. On rare occasions they will let you vote what you want.

At least they have a choice of parties.

This is what it looks like here iin GA.

http://www.voterchoice.org

Check it out...

[UofORepublican]

yikes. thats horrible.