Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Loyalty of Iraq's elite in doubt
The Guardian ^ | Friday September 20, 2002 | Brian Whitaker

Posted on 09/20/2002 8:57:05 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2

Loyalty of Iraq's elite in doubt

Republican guard units kept out of Baghdad : Loyalty of Saddam's elite troops in doubt

Brian Whitaker Friday September 20, 2002 The Guardian

Elite forces from Iraq's Republican Guard may not be called upon to protect Saddam Hussein in the event of an American attack - for fear that they might turn against him. The Iraqi leader is determined to keep his crack troops out of Baghdad where their tanks and heavy weaponry could be used to overthrow the regime rather than defend it, the Guardian has learned.

This is because President Saddam cannot be sure of the Guard's loyalties, according to a non-Iraqi source with well-placed contacts in Baghdad. "It's touch and go who they fight for," said the source, who asked not to be identified.

"The officer corps in the Republican Guard are highly trained and motivated, but they hate Saddam Hussein. They also hate the United States. They have a political mind of their own and there's no way Saddam will let them come with their armour into the centre of town."

The United Nations is currently scrambling to devise a means of forcing the Iraqi regime to succumb to renewed arms inspections in a desperate effort to avoid war. Should that fail Iraq has already made clear that its aim is to draw invading US forces into urban warfare, and officials regularly invoke memories of previous city battles in Beirut and Mogadishu.

The result in Iraq, Baghdad strategists calculate, would be to maximise casualties among both the American military and Iraqi civilians, thus increasing the political risks to the US.

But the Republican Guard would not be allowed to join street-fighting inside Bagh dad. Its forces would be kept outside the centre, defending three access routes to the capital, where they would be at the mercy of US bombers.

The Guard, which numbers 50,000-60,000 men, was originally set up as a counterweight to the regular army, and to protect the Iraqi regime, especially the presidential palace in Baghdad. It grew dramatically during the 1980-88 war with Iran, developing a broader role as an elite force.

Although highly privileged and well-equipped in comparison with the regular army, it has become less trusted as a result of several coup plots involving officers from the Guard. One plot, unmasked in 1990, two months before it was due to take place, included a brigadier-general from President Saddam's home town, Tikrit. A member of the Iraqi leader's own tribe was also arrested but later freed.

This led to an expansion of the super-elite Special Republican Guard (SRG), which is now the only major force trusted enough to operate in central Baghdad. Members of the SRG come mainly from areas of Iraq that are noted for their loyalty to President Saddam, including Tikrit. Several of the top officers are drawn from his own family.

The SRG's main function is to protect the Iraqi leader, his relatives and his palaces. Because of the nature of these duties it is more lightly armed than the Republican Guard. The SRG is also much smaller than the Republican Guard, with a normal strength of 12,000-15,000, which can be increased to about 25,000 in emergencies.

Both the Republican Guard and the SRG are under the control of Saddam's younger son, Qusai, rather than the defence ministry, and their members enjoy economic privileges not available to ordinary Iraqis or those in the regular forces.

Various other forces dedicated to intelligence and internal security - possibly totalling more than 100,000 men - could theoretically be deployed in a last-ditch defence of the regime. These include the Special Security Service, the General Intelligence Directorate, the Military Security Service, Military Intelligence and the Border Guards, which all have paramilitary elements.

In addition, there is the Saddam Fedayyeen, a thug militia run by President Saddam's elder son, Udai, which specialises in internal repression - such as cutting off tongues and beheading prostitutes.

Members cover their faces and alternate between white uniforms in summer and black in winter. There is also a youth wing for the under-18s. It is doubtful, however, whether the Fedayyeen's skills would be much use in a full-scale war.

The multiplicity of forces, intended to keep watch on each other and control Iraqi civilians, leads to rivalries and jealousies which are not conducive to a well-coordinated defence of the regime against an external threat.

The conventional army, which probably numbers slightly more than 350,000 (excluding the Republican Guard), is the largest fighting force in the Middle East - but a shadow of its former self. Shortly before the 1991 war it had 955,000 men. That war, followed by 11 years of sanctions, have left it undermanned and poorly equipped, though it could still probably call on 625,000 reservists.

Recent evidence to the US Senate foreign relations committee suggests that at least half of the regular army is at 70% or less of its authorised strength, with some infantry units severely undermanned.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London ,all army divisions except the Republican Guard are at 50% combat effectiveness

Some infantry units are heavily dependent on conscripts, unlike the Republican Guard, which is a volunteer force. "Six weeks' bombing would finish the conscripts," one analyst said. "They'll not switch to the US but disappear and go home to their mums."

Although the army does have 2,200 tanks - 700 of which are relatively modern -there are reports that much of its equipment is old. According to one American report, half of all army equipment lacks spare parts.

This probably leaves the Republican Guard as the key military player in Iraq, and a potential powerbroker, but doubts about its trustworthiness do not necessarily mean it would switch sides and support the Americans.

Disaffected officers might judge that their interests and special privileges would be better served by pre-empting the Americans and replacing President Saddam with a less controversial leader or at least establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with by any new regime.

Some in the west argue that disaffection in the Guard can be exploited and encouraged by signalling that any post-Saddam retribution will be limited to the worst elements among them.

"We need to send a message to the Republican Guard that we only want to hit hard-core Tikritis [those closest to Saddam]," says Rosemary Hollis, of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

That would require a careful military strategy aimed at dividing the Guard rather than simply hammering them.

"How do you send a message by air power?" she continued. "There is not enough political thinking about targeting. For instance, how much thought has gone into choosing targets in terms of desired political outcomes?"

Brigadier Tawfiq al-Yasari, a spokesman for the opposition Military Alliance of exiled officers, also emphasises the importance of communication with the Republic Guard - though he includes the SRG in that, too.

"There has to be a political, strategic plan to approach these people," he says. "Our military council has started a campaign to reach out to them."


TOPICS: Breaking News; Unclassified
KEYWORDS: iraq; republicanguard; sadaamhussein
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-59 next last
Seems that Hussein fears his "elites" are ready to slit his throat...
1 posted on 09/20/2002 8:57:05 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
Elite forces from Iraq's Republican Guard may not be called upon to protect Saddam Hussein in the event of an American attack - for fear that they might turn against him

We may not even have to fight... to make them switch.

2 posted on 09/20/2002 8:59:31 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
This led to an expansion of the super-elite Special Republican Guard

Would these be the "suicide squads"?

3 posted on 09/20/2002 9:02:30 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
I still think there is a small chance he will wait until the last minute,and then go for a villa on the Rivera and keeping his billions in exchange for him stepping down.
"Baby Doc" in Haiti went for this deal,and he was/is every bit as nutty as Hussein.
4 posted on 09/20/2002 9:02:58 PM PDT by sneakypete
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sneakypete
Indeed...

He must be feeling very threatened... to send his RG's out of town. He must also be thinking the threat is imminent, or he would wait to move them...
5 posted on 09/20/2002 9:05:24 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: sneakypete
Darn! Now I'm going to have to sell my villa on the Riviera!
6 posted on 09/20/2002 9:06:56 PM PDT by McGavin999
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
Thanks for finding and posting these articles. It's a fair amount of work, and it is appreciated.

And same to the others who also do this in the effort to keep FR informed on the War on Terrorists. Many thanks.

7 posted on 09/20/2002 9:09:19 PM PDT by RightWhale
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
The multiplicity of forces, intended to keep watch on each other and control Iraqi civilians, leads to rivalries and jealousies which are not conducive to a well-coordinated defence of the regime against an external threat.

But are great fun to watch when the jar is heated and shaken.

8 posted on 09/20/2002 9:11:50 PM PDT by PhilDragoo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
Apparently the only "elites" still backing and protecting Sadaam are Kofi Annan, Germany, France, Russia and the rest of the no-account, rotted-out Western European states.
9 posted on 09/20/2002 9:11:53 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RightWhale
Things are going a little slow tonight... the calm before the storm?
10 posted on 09/20/2002 9:13:05 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: sneakypete
then go for a villa on the Rivera

They'd like him in France, and he could shack up with Mrs. Arafat until the ol' man comes for his exile. Be a hot time in the chalet that night!

Sadaam and Arafat would fit right in with the sordid buffoons in France or Germany.

11 posted on 09/20/2002 9:15:11 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Scott from the Left Coast
daschle... you forgot osami bin daschle....
12 posted on 09/20/2002 9:15:29 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
Daschle....oh, yeah...he is easy to forget, isn't he?
13 posted on 09/20/2002 9:17:12 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: RightWhale
did you see there is an outbreak of "listeria" in the New Jersey, and New York areas?

CDC is getting SERIOUSLY involved... and they are all from the same strain of the bacteria...
14 posted on 09/20/2002 9:19:09 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Scott from the Left Coast
Saw a blurb of breaking news tonight on porland station that we have 800 special forces in a tiny little nation next to YEMEN in potential preparation for an attack on Al Queda in YEMEN in the next few days... KOIN TV...

Probably just misdirection by the defense department... but the calm out there tonight... seems a little unusual.

15 posted on 09/20/2002 9:23:18 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
What's "listeria"?
16 posted on 09/20/2002 9:23:25 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Scott from the Left Coast
Daschle....oh, yeah...he is easy to forget overlook, isn't he? YES, because he's a freakin' midget.
17 posted on 09/20/2002 9:24:10 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
a little slow tonight... the calm before the storm?

Maybe so. I have a feeling. . . But then, I have felt this way since 1957, so it isn't something to bank on.

18 posted on 09/20/2002 9:24:39 PM PDT by RightWhale
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Robert_Paulson2
That would be Oman (the only nation bordering Yemen by land except Saudi Arabia). I'd heard that there were some U.S. forces at a French base in Djbouti (across the straits off the Horn of Africa), but I hadn't heard about any in Oman.

A French base! Go figure.

I bet they do go in and clear out Yemen -- it's a true cess pool of radical Islamics. Wouldn't take all that much and it'd be damn nice payback for the Cole.

19 posted on 09/20/2002 9:28:16 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Scott from the Left Coast
http://vm.cfsan.fda.gov/~mow/chap6.html

Its a bad bug... and one of potential bacteriological and deadly infections that CDC watches... cases are usually very sporadic... and hard to trace. THESE are focused and specific, with the same genetic traits in the different cases reported. per a wnbc4.com "feed room" report

20 posted on 09/20/2002 9:30:23 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-59 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson