Posted on 09/10/2002 12:12:03 PM PDT by rightwing2
Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries
By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner and Marc Ambinder
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10 — It's primary day in a dozen states — the biggest primary day of the midterm election year.
New Hampshire
The Granite State's Republican Senate primary, in which Rep. John Sununu is challenging incumbent Senator Bob Smith, is the Tuesday contest packing the most national significance, and will be watched closely by the GOP's top operatives, including those at the White House. If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992. Most Establishment Republicans have banked on the CW that Sununu, and not Smith, could better defend this seat for the GOP against Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen.
With Democrats controlling the Senate by just one seat, and the pool of close races this year pretty evenly split between the two parties, control of the chamber could well boil down to New Hampshire and the identity of the GOP standard-bearer. Hanging the balance: President Bush's judicial nominees, including any US Supreme Court nominees he may have to pick over the next two years, and the bulk of his domestic agenda.
So it is not without pain that Sununu's supporters have watched over the last few weeks as Sununu's formerly comfortable polling lead over Smith has dissipated, and as Smith maintained his overpowered fundraising lead over the challenger. All of which points to the possible CW-busting reality that while the identity of the Republican nominee obviously matters, it won't necessarily determine their chances of holding onto this Senate seat.
The Granite State also is hosting an open race for governor and for a US House seat this year. Depending on how the primaries shake out, Democrats may wind up with women nominees for both House races, the Senate race, and the gubernatorial contest. Republican Senate primary As we said above, many political operatives of both parties have long viewed the close battle for Senate control as possibly boiling down to this state — and more specifically, this primary.
Smith's support among some independents, who are allowed to vote in primaries here, and among certain single-issue Republican voters, may buoy him in this contest. Smith's standing among Republicans dropped after he left the GOP in 2000 to run for president as an independent. When he returned to the party, he cast some centrist votes that further irritated Granite State conservatives, and Sununu decided to challenge him.
Smith, however, has run a hard-charging, sometimes negative campaign, and seems to have a better organization. He convinced Rudy Giuliani to endorse him, and has the public support of the White House, even if Administration operatives make it plain that they were forced to endorse him because he is an incumbent, and that they actually prefer Sununu.
Some of Smith's Senate colleagues have endorsed Sununu, and he has received contributions from former President Bush and other notables. As the son of the former White House chief of staff, he has his family pedigree, as well as the backing of the influential Manchester Union Leader. But he (Sununu) has had trouble raising money, and Smith has pounded him on votes related to terrorism, immigration, and the Middle East that some have charged are out of line (Sununu is a Lebanese-American). Even so, the accusations seem to have thrown Sununu off a bit.
If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.
I voted for Reagan; you're probably too young to remember, but the "GOP establishment" backed Reagan in the primaries in 1980.
According to the loopy JBS, Lindner was 51%; according to the ACU (whose praises you were singing a ocuple of hours ago) Lindner was 96%.
Your facts are wrong about Barr. He actually moved into Lindner's district because he didn't want to have to work for re-election.
Barr will be back as a US Attorney or in some other capacity. I like him, but he made a serious mistake challenging John Lindner.
The left keeps their party from nominating moderates. The right should do the same in reverse. When the GOP establishment finally get their asses thrown out by the grassroots conservative heart of the party you might begin to get the idea.
It is foolish to assert that settling for the lesser of two evils is somehow a "help." All we'll ever get your way is more creeping socialism. If that satisfies you--and I think it does--then keep right on doing it.
In 1980? I have no idea. He had about as much influence then as he does now, since he was a loser in 1976.
Gerald Ford LOST in 1976. He was NOT part of the "GOP establishment" in 1980.
You're starting to hallucinate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.