Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries (Smith v. Sununu)

ABC News ^ | September 10, 2002 | Mark Halperin

[rightwing2]

Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries

By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner and Marc Ambinder

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10 — It's primary day in a dozen states — the biggest primary day of the midterm election year.

New Hampshire

The Granite State's Republican Senate primary, in which Rep. John Sununu is challenging incumbent Senator Bob Smith, is the Tuesday contest packing the most national significance, and will be watched closely by the GOP's top operatives, including those at the White House. If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992. Most Establishment Republicans have banked on the CW that Sununu, and not Smith, could better defend this seat for the GOP against Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen.

With Democrats controlling the Senate by just one seat, and the pool of close races this year pretty evenly split between the two parties, control of the chamber could well boil down to New Hampshire and the identity of the GOP standard-bearer. Hanging the balance: President Bush's judicial nominees, including any US Supreme Court nominees he may have to pick over the next two years, and the bulk of his domestic agenda.

So it is not without pain that Sununu's supporters have watched over the last few weeks as Sununu's formerly comfortable polling lead over Smith has dissipated, and as Smith maintained his overpowered fundraising lead over the challenger. All of which points to the possible CW-busting reality that while the identity of the Republican nominee obviously matters, it won't necessarily determine their chances of holding onto this Senate seat.

The Granite State also is hosting an open race for governor and for a US House seat this year. Depending on how the primaries shake out, Democrats may wind up with women nominees for both House races, the Senate race, and the gubernatorial contest. Republican Senate primary As we said above, many political operatives of both parties have long viewed the close battle for Senate control as possibly boiling down to this state — and more specifically, this primary.

Smith's support among some independents, who are allowed to vote in primaries here, and among certain single-issue Republican voters, may buoy him in this contest. Smith's standing among Republicans dropped after he left the GOP in 2000 to run for president as an independent. When he returned to the party, he cast some centrist votes that further irritated Granite State conservatives, and Sununu decided to challenge him.

Smith, however, has run a hard-charging, sometimes negative campaign, and seems to have a better organization. He convinced Rudy Giuliani to endorse him, and has the public support of the White House, even if Administration operatives make it plain that they were forced to endorse him because he is an incumbent, and that they actually prefer Sununu.

Some of Smith's Senate colleagues have endorsed Sununu, and he has received contributions from former President Bush and other notables. As the son of the former White House chief of staff, he has his family pedigree, as well as the backing of the influential Manchester Union Leader. But he (Sununu) has had trouble raising money, and Smith has pounded him on votes related to terrorism, immigration, and the Middle East that some have charged are out of line (Sununu is a Lebanese-American). Even so, the accusations seem to have thrown Sununu off a bit.

If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.

[deport]

Nope, Not a democrat supporter.... Are you?

But I would support either of the two Republican candidates (Sununu or Smith) that the voters of NH choose as their nominee.....

[rightwing2]

I voted for PJB and for Keyes from '92 to 2000.

You voted for Buchanan in 92 and 96. Well then, you must be a conservative after all. I don't know why, but I was under the impression that you were one of Buchanan's biggest opponents last time around. I guess I was wrong...

[HalfIrish]

You prove my point with your inane answer. You see the GOP as the team who you must support no matter what. I suppose you'd buy luxury boxes in St. Petersburg for next year's Devil Rays season if they were your chosen team. Support the team no matter how much they screw you -- the philosophy of the 11th Earl.

I'll expect my team to give me a reason to attend, thank you.

[Coop]

You Sununu supporters have really got a lot of nerve.

You know I'm not a Sununu supporter, but once again reality has little to do with your childish rants. Sununu would never have been able to scrounge up support to challenge Bob Smith had Smith not severely wounded himself politically.

If Bob Smith loses today, he has NOBODY to blame but himself.

[itsahoot]

Nope, Not a democrat supporter.... Are you?

Voted for John Kennedy, but I repented of that one and only democratic vote.

I was just commenting on the logic of your statement, about
supporting whomever the people elected.

[11th Earl of Mar]

No, I see the GOP as the only party right now who can help conservatives "score points." If you can name any other party who has passed ANY legislation limiting government, reducing taxes or restricting abortions, please let us know right now. You seem to believe that having no conservative is better than having a conservative who is not 100 percent.

[itsahoot]

If Bob Smith loses today, he has NOBODY to blame but himself.

Aw, give yourself a little credit, you have worked very hard at it.

[theartfuldodger]

Don't forget Smith's appeal to us "single-issue Republicans" :-)

[HalfIrish]

If you can name any other party who has passed ANY legislation limiting government, reducing taxes or restricting abortions, please let us know right now.

You miss the point. If the honest car dealer your father and his father relied on turns crappy--but not quite as crappy as all the other car dealers---would you be satisfied? If you had it within your power to turn him honest again by making his business suffer, wouldn't you do it? Perhaps by keeping your car a few extra years (e.g. sitting out an election with crappy candidates?) That's my point. I will make the GOP suffer whenever their candidate is a left-leaner. Period.

[Coop]

Bzzzzz!! Wrong. But thank you for playing. Go review a few Smith/Sununu threads (yeah, like you care about facts). There are three givens on just about every thread.

1) Rightwing and his crew call Sununu a moderate.
2) Sununu backers claim Smith cannot be competitive with Shaheen.
3) I call both groups on those ridiculous claims, lies, whatever you want to call them.

You can wrinkle your brow and pout all you like (can you say Smith supporter, boys and girls?), but I don't have a horse in this race. I'll be rooting from afar for whomever wins to beat Shaheen. It's that simple.

[leprechaun9]

Note that in NY, as in most primaries, the discipline of the Democraps filters out all except one, i.e, CUOOOMO in NY.

Unfortunately the November election is limited, almost restricted, to the Republican and Democrap parties. That is the process, and as undemocratic as it is, the party should select it's nominee for the Generel Election.

[Fracas]

This 'send a message' philosophy is destroying our courts (juries awarding obscene amounts of money against companies and letting OJ's go free), and in the voting booth, it's destroying our country.

Every time you vote against a bad candidate because a good one isn't quite 'good enough' you give all of us second best.

You should just vote for the Democrat - it would be more honest.

[deport]

Yep that logic gets them everytime. Well I lost to you in the 1960 vote.....

[HalfIrish]

vote for the Democrat

Vote for the eviller of two evils? Wow, that's a new concept!

[11th Earl of Mar]

Staying home and keeping support of conservative candidates who are not as conservative as you would like, only means that you will be ruled by liberals.

I am from Michigan. Spencer Abraham was our first prolife US Senator since Roe v. Wade. He supported tax cuts, impeachment and gun rights, while opposing the liberal agenda of Democrats and the liberal wing of the GOP. His Conservative rating was high. [80 to 90 percent if I recall.]

But he lost the last election by a very small margin. Buchanan supporting, Reform Party Michiganders brag that "they beat him." And they are pleased that they did so.

Now we have a liberal, pro-abort, pro-taxes/big government, who is obstructing placing conservative judges on the bench, preventing a vote on partial birth abortion and helping to elect a liberal governor.

It may take another 25 years to get a conservative Republican Senator from our state again.

And this helps us, how?

[Willie Green]

If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992.

And would have the same catastrophic effect on the Senate, I might add.

[Malcolm]

We just have different philosophies, RW2; I'm not sure why the position I and many others take, and the people on your side adhere to, are not reconcilable. Why can there not be common cause between our camps? Principle is most important, but not so much so that we needlessly lose elections to the Dems because of it. With Simon supporting same sex marriages/insurance/whatever, I CAN understand not voting for him, but that is the exception. I gladly vote for the GOP candidates here in Georgia. Maybe if you lived in a state that has never had a GOP governor, nor any house of the legislature controlled by Republicans, you would not be so hasty to dismiss the few chances one has to dislodge them, even if the GOP candidate is imperfect. I've got principles like you and every other conservative, but I can't over emphasize that at the expense of practicality when a balance has to be struck. Thanks for you hard work. I just wish those like you could see the bigger picture. Electing Dems is no solution. I always see the glass half-full. It takes someone like Simon to make me even consider not voting GOP.....

[EternalVigilance]

If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.

Huh, what do you know...seems that's what I've been saying all along, as the endless drumbeat of 'only Sununu can beat Shaheen' has droned on.

May the best man win...and tomorrow may every Republican begin to hammer the leftwing soon-to-be former Governor into the ground.

EV

[rightwing2]

Funny you mention Simon as someone you would consider not voting for. I have continued to urge all Californians to support him against Gov. "Red" Davis in spite of some embarrassing gaffes. The only Republicans in the country I would not support at this time are the most pro-abortion liberal supporting ones like Rep. Tom Davis and the few that have not only coddled illegal immigrants but who have given moral support to anti-US and anti-Israel terrorists like John Sununu and that other anti-US national security congressman named, uh John Sununu.

Although I oppose Sununu as a matter of conservative principle, it has definitely gotten personal with me. On the other hand, I would vote for Bush supported mushy moderates Liz Dole, Lamar Alexander who defeated much more conservative challengers and moderates John Linder who defeated legendary conservative champion, Bob Barr and others. In short, you are reading me way wrong. I have only voted for a third party candidate twice in my life. Every single other vote I have ever cast has been straight Republican. I even voted for pro-aborter Pete Wilson in 1990 and 1994.

[sinkspur]

Gee Sink, I think that is what Reagan did, to his democratic party. Did you feel the same way about him?

Reagan didn't crawl back to the Democrats four months later to get a committee chairmanship.