As you can see, we've been very busy over the last couple of weeks! Things are heating up, as expected.
Posted on 08/29/2002 8:20:17 AM PDT by JulieRNR21
Internal polling has convinced Gov. Jeb Bush's campaign that despite its efforts to help Janet Reno win the Democratic primary she will lose and Bush will be forced to run against Tampa lawyer Bill McBride.
Reno's campaign said Wednesday that is nonsense, and it remains confident that the former U.S. attorney general will be elected the Democratic nominee on Sept. 10.
In polling done just before Tuesday's statewide televised Democratic debate, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse found that Democratic voters, especially those along the more conservative Interstate 4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando, have been moving to McBride in droves during the past three weeks.
"We're almost resigned to the fact that he is going to win the nomination," a Republican strategist said. "At this point we'd be very surprised if he didn't win."
Statewide, the gap between Reno and McBride has closed so much that the race is nearly a dead heat, said three Republicans familiar with the poll.
They said that no more than 5 points are separating the two contenders.
Reno also is being hurt by long-shot Democratic gubernatorial candidate Daryl Jones of Miami, a black state senator who is winning what would otherwise be Reno votes.
Three weeks ago, Reno enjoyed a 20-point lead in the polls.
"I seriously doubt there has been that much movement in the polls," said Mo Elleithee, Reno's campaign manager. "We have said all along that we expected this race to tighten, but we remain confident that Janet will win by a comfortable margin."
Elleithee said no polls have been done since Reno began airing her first campaign commercials this week. McBride has had ads on the air for more than a month.
A Reno defeat would be bad news for Republicans, who have spent more than $1 million on television ads critical of McBride.
Bush's campaign hoped the ads would knock McBride out of contention.
Instead, he has continued to close the gap with Reno.
Now, Republican strategists say the ads will help them in the general election because if McBride wins, independent voters -- who are not eligible to vote in the primary -- should be left with an impression casting doubt on McBride's ability to be governor.
The Bush poll echoes a poll released by McBride's camp Wednesday showing him within 6 percentage points of Reno.
In that poll of 603 likely voters conducted from Aug. 17-19, Reno leads 44 percent to McBride's 38 percent. Jones was favored by 6 percent of the voters.
The poll was conducted for the McBride campaign by Washington pollster Geoff Garin of Garin Hart Yang. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
New polls, to be released beginning Sunday by several Florida newspapers, are under way and will reflect whether Reno regained any lost ground with her performance during Tuesday's well-watched debate in Palm Beach Gardens.
The debate was televised locally on WPTV-Channel 5 and on seven other NBC affiliates across the state. Locally it was the most popular show of the evening in the West Palm Beach-Treasure Coast viewing area, drawing a 16.57 rating, meaning 112,858 of the region's 681,100 households were watching.
McBride spokesman Allan Stonecipher attributed the momentum for McBride, in part, to the negative ads by Bush accusing McBride of being a poor manager of his former law firm, Holland & Knight, the largest in the state.
The attention only boosted McBride's name recognition and stirred more anger against Bush, Stonecipher said.
"Bush did us a favor inadvertently," Stonecipher said. "For South Florida voters, that was like throwing them red meat. They want somebody to go toe-to-toe with Jeb."
As a former Clinton administration official and Dade County state attorney, Reno has a long public record that Bush's campaign is convinced can be easily exploited in a general election campaign.
McBride, however, has spent nearly his entire adult life as a lawyer in, and later managing partner of, one of the nation's top law firms -- Tampa-based Holland & Knight.
Supporters of the former combat Marine say Bush will have a difficult time attacking McBride because he has never held public office.
Reno's campaign is hoping that her television ads -- which started Tuesday -- will bolster her support.
They are counting on a heavy turnout in South Florida, where senior voters overwhelming support Reno.
McBride's campaign is trying to dent that support in the Democratic stronghold of Broward County.
On Saturday, Reno begins an 11-day statewide tour in her trademark red pickup truck.
"Frankly, I'm not concerned about what the Jeb Bush campaign is saying about the Democratic primary," Elleithee said. "Our focus is on continuing to make the case for Janet Reno."
brian_crowley@pbpost.com, jim_ash@pbpost.com
As you can see, we've been very busy over the last couple of weeks! Things are heating up, as expected.
Wise decision indeed!
"A Reno defeat would be bad news for Republicans, who have spent more than $1 million on television ads critical of McBride."
Gray-Out Davis spent $7 million against Riordan (and for Simon) in the California GOP primary. A similar effort would've been needed against McBride. But the GOP doesn't have the killer instinct, which results in their preference for half-measures, which then fail and leave them in a worse position than before. The only thing that saves the GOP is the extremism and arrogance of the DemocRATs.
No, one must be registered in a party to vote in the primary. Reno would certainly have my vote if I could cast one!
FROM: Karen Unger, Campaign Manager
DATE: August 29, 2002
RE: Democrat Primary
Over the next several days, you may see survey data in newspaper reports that indicate the Democrat primary race for Governor is in a dead heat, or that Bill McBride has actually passed Janet Reno in the polls. This should not be surprising to anyone given the millions of dollars of advertising spent by Bill McBride, coupled with Janet Reno's lackluster campaign.
We have said from day one that we are prepared to run an aggressive campaign against either Janet Reno or Bill McBride, based on the Governor's tremendous track record of strong leadership. Regardless of the outcome of the Democrat primary on September 10, we need to stay focused on communicating this record:
* An education funding increase of 3 billion dollars, larger than his predecessor's first or second terms; * Florida is a national leader in job growth; * A "Silver Savers" prescription drug plan that provides a $160 per month drug benefit for low income seniors; * The lowest crime rate in 29 years Both of our opponents offer empty and expensive promises, based on whichever way the political winds blow. But Governor Bush has not been afraid to tackle the tough issues and make the difficult decisions that face a Governor.
As we get closer to the general election, press attention on the potential Democrat nominee will increase. Immediately following the September 10 primary, out-of-state funding to attack the Governor will flow into Florida and the negative attacks on our Governor will grow even louder. It is critical that you continue your active efforts to take the Governor's record of accomplishment to voters in your community. We are grateful for your hard work and dedication - keep it up!
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Good to see you again Gene !
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