Posted on 08/28/2002 3:29:12 PM PDT by patriciaruth
Close, possible pickups: South Dakota, Missouri, Georgia and Minnesota.
Possible losses: New Hampshire, Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina
If lightening strikes, may pickup: Iowa, New Jersey
South Dakota: John Thune, current Congressman, (articulate, affable, attractive in the recent debate with Johnson) running against Tim Johnson, current Senator.
Last poll: 40%-40% announced just before the debate
John Thune for South Dakota
P.O. Box 516
Sioux Falls, SD 57101
Minnesota: Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul, running against Paul Wellstone, current Senator.
Link to www.colemanforsenate.com
Coleman for U.S. Senate
1410 Energy Park Dr, Ste. 11
St. Paul, MN 55108-9865
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole, former U.S. Transportation Secretary under Ronald Reagan and CEO of the American Red Cross, favored to win GOP primary, may be running against Erskine Bowles, former Clinton chief of staff. Primaries have been postponed to September 10 due to legal squabbling over redistricting. There will be no runoff primaries as a result.
Dole 2002 Committee
P.O. Box 2109
Salisbury, NC 28145-9982
New Hampshire: Current Senator Bob Smith is being challenged in the Republican primary by current U.S. Representative John Sununu, son of former Governor, who was ahead in last Republican primary poll I saw. Whoever wins will run weakened against current Democrat governor, Jean Shaneen.
(603) 641-9536 to call Sununu if he wins the primary on September 10.
Missouri: Jim Talent, former Congressman from St. Louis, against current Senator Jean Carnahan, who was appointed when her dead husband narrowly "won" in 2000 election against John Ashcroft.
Last Zogby poll: Talent 47%-46% Carnahan
Link to www.talentforsenate.com
Jim Talent for Senate
9433 Olive Boulevard
St. Louis, MO 63132
Arkansas: Senator Tim Hutchinson challenged strongly by state attorney general Mark Pryor. Sen. Hutchinson, a former Baptist minister, is in trouble for reelection because of his divorce and remarriage after winning the Senate seat in 1996 on a platform of family values. He won his primary by 70% against another Christian conservative so the voters may be starting to forgive him.
Hutchinson for Senate
PO Box 998
Rogers, AR 72756
Georgia: U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss against Max Cleland, appointed Senator in 2000 by the Democrat governor when Republican Senator Coverdale died unexpectedly.
Texas: State Attorney General John Cornyn is running close in the polls to Democrat Ron Kirk, former mayor of Dallas. Current Senator Phil Graham is retiring. Democrat Kirk is getting lots of financial support from outside the state because he is black and because Democrats want to embarrass Bush in his home state of Texas.
Iowa: U.S. Representative Greg Ganske is challenging current Senator Tom Harkin. Although he was behind in last poll, he may gain ground with the ad campaign in urban areas.
New Jersey: Doug Forrester (bio: former assistant state treasurer, now small businessman and university instructor) is running against Senator Robert Torricelli, who was acquitted by a jury but had a reprimand from the Senate Ethics Committee and may be vulnerable.
A poll in June had Torricell-44%, Forrester-36%.
Our best pickup chances are SD and NJ. I think a visit by Bush and a strong overal GOP ticket in SD is the difference. As long as Forrester runs a by-the-book campaign, he wins.
Dole will win in NC, Cornyn will win in TX, LAMAR! will win in TN.
Chambliss, Hutchinson, and Ganske lose in GA, AR, and IA, respectively.
I give Coleman better-than-even odds in MN at this point.
If Sununu wins the primary in NH, he beats Shaheen. If Smith wins the primary, Shaheen wins.
Terrell makes it to December against Landrieu in LA, but loses.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL UPSET: Taylor (R) over Baucus (D) in MT.
I say the GOP picks up 2 seats, net. We'll see.
The only thing I can find so far is a Washington Times story from early July that Dole is running like an incumbent, keeping a low profile and taking the high road because she has the most name recognition. But that can backfire if her supporters aren't energized to go to the polls and the purist conservatives are energized to go "show them" that outsiders ain't gonna tell us how to vote.
Either of you have any rising poll numbers for Snyder or sinking poll numbers for Dole to give credence to your gut feelings?
Or can you give me the name or website of a big North Carolina newspaper that I could browse in?
Did Chambliss really say they were going to make sure no Muslims came into Georgia?
Her TV ads have made her the laughing stock of the state. Mama is living in our house. An extreme stretch of the truth, if not out and out lie. Liddy hasn't lived in North Carolina for decades and Bob never has. Slightly better than Hillary is a New Yorker. There are a lot of people who do not trust the Red Cross and leaders thereof. They know of the training of Liddy by Terry Sanford. And other reasons I won't go into here.
Snyder in the primaries. We'll think about what to do in the general election should Liddy take it.
It seems you have a habit of dismissing any poll that doesn't portray the results you want! Even partisan-sponsored polls (which this one was not) tend to overstate their candidate by only 3-4 points. No poll that shows Hutchinson down by 10 points can be viewed as "very positive" without some vigorous spinning! From what I've heard, viewers were split down the middle as to who performed better in the debate.
For starters, in La the Republicans finally got off the dime and committed major funds. This says they agree with me that the chance of throwing this into a runoff is now very strong, at LEAST 70% it DOES go into the runoff.
On this, we are in agreement. There's no question Terrell is something of a moderate, but in this case, she's really the only hope of defeating Landrieu. The GOP needs to get her into that No. 2 position, and keep Landrieu under 50% for what could be an interesting runoff election (especially if control of the Senate hinges on it). Unfortunately, Gov. Foster has endorsed John Cooksey.
In GA, which I gave to R in an eyelash, ANY kind of McKinney candidacy or write-in gives Chambliss the seat; and the latter is only now beginning to become known.
It's too early to say how this one might play out. But I think it's safe to say that McKinney will be a non-factor. Ballot access is already closed in Georgia, even if McKinney wanted to run as an Independent or Green. The only way she could run would be as a write-in candidate, which I don't think would have much impact. Besides, from everything I've seen, the thinking is that McKinney was talking about a 2004 Senate run, when Zell Miller might retire; not a 2002 run.
"If these polls asked, "which party do you want your new Senator to be from," it would skew the ultimate result less, than these polls that ask "If the election were held today, would you vote for Sen. Bigstaff Forever, or Joey Jones?"...do in fact skew it. Whoever heard of Joey Jones? This is programmed to get a RAT result.
I agree with your general premise that challengers tend to gain momentum as the campaign progresses and they become better known. However, this reasoning cannot be used to dismiss the results of the AR and SD polls, since Hutchinson is the incumbent, and Thune was elected to the state-wide House seat with 70%+ of the vote.
The poll in SD is ridiculous in saying 20% of the voters are unsure, in fact it is in effect programmed to produce a tie.
Actually, it was 15% undecided. Five percent chose the Libertarian candidate. Previous SD polls ranged from 7-12% undecided, so this one was somewhat higher in that regard.
patricia, think about what you're writing for just a moment: it doesn't matter to you about the quality of representation that we North Carolinians want. You and a lot of others seem to only care about "winning back the Senate", about "us being in charge".
I don't trust that. A lot of people here in North Carolina don't trust that. And I don't care if Bowles does win... hell I can see where having two dyed-in-the-wool liberal senators from this state might be a GOOD thing: it might finally wake up many North Carolinians who've let the statists - those who don't believe in limited government - cut and bleed this state for longer than most of us care to remember. Might be good "shock therapy" that would defeat Edwards in '04, at least.
I'm not going to vote for "a surefire winner" if that's the only thing going for them. "Because they can win" might mean they can take power, but it's no measure of whether they deserve power.
This is EXACTLY what's looking to happen! Because so far as her supporters go... well, we're still trying to find them.
An incumbent will not be defeated unless he or she makes at least ONE big, controversial mistake in the eyes of his or her constituents. Voting record aside, Cleland has not. And Chambliss was not his opponent in '96, Guy Millner was. Miller will give Cleland enough cover so that conservative/moderate dems will vote for him. Cleland will win.
You've seen her TV ads? Where?
And at the very end they take this poor woman (Giddy's mother)who looks tired as heck and who is probably sorry as heck her daughter married Viagra Bob, to say 'Mother knows best!!' to the camera
But of course that's not as good as the 'I'm here to protect NC jobs and by God if you elect me I'll put the tariff rate so high on textiles, we won't know what hit us!!' ads. There we pan through some mill(cleanest mill I ever saw BTW) and Giddy's voice over tells us how she has worked side by side in some mill with the workers. What she fails to say is when, where, and who saw her there. I swear, put a dress on Erskine Bowles and you'd have Dolt. BTW, has anybody ever seen them together?
I thought that was Erskine Bowels' ad. Hehehe
Nope...haven't seen it. Maybe I'm just not watching....er....enduring as much network television as I used to.
I have not seen anything at all on the GOP primary in NC. Such a lack of polling data is typically indicative of a non-competitive race, however.
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