LA's Landrieu Still in Senatorial Driver's Seat

The Shreveport Times | 08-21-02 | Not given

[Theodore R.]

GOP Senate candidates face off with similar themes Posted on August 21, 2002

The three Republicans attempting to unseat Louisiana's junior U.S. senator, Democrat Mary Landrieu, outlined similar campaign themes - less government intervention, lower taxes and choice in education - Tuesday night.

But one theme most popular among U.S. Rep. John Cooksey of Monroe, Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell of New Orleans and state Rep. Tony Perkins of Baton Rouge was what they all said is the need to replace Landrieu - a position welcomed by the Professional Republican Women of Caddo, which played host for the candidates Tuesday.

"I am very proud of the fact that I was the first Republican woman ever elected to a statewide office in Louisiana," Terrell said. "I think we need more Republican women in the (U.S.) Senate.

"I don't want Mary Landrieu, Barbara Boxer and Hillary Clinton speaking for me about family issues, life issues, retirement issues and how to care for my mother," she said, referring to the Democratic senators from Louisiana, California and New York, respectively.

Cooksey and Perkins spoke about the importance of having a Republican senator from Louisiana for several reasons, including moving through many of President George W. Bush's policies and judicial appointments.

"I believe President Bush needs Louisiana's help to make tax cuts permanent because that will provide jobs, much needed jobs here at home," Perkins said. "He needs our help to get 123 judicial nominees being blocked by the likes of (Senate Majority Leader) Tom Daschle, Mary Landrieu and Hillary Clinton. And he needs our help to stand firm against terrorism."

Cooksey, who has served in the U.S. House of Representatives for nearly six years, also spoke about the war on terrorism, committing support to Israel.

"We were attacked because we are Americans. We were attacked because we are Christians. We were attacked because we are supporters of Israel," he said. "We must always guarantee the safety and security of the nation of Israel and the people of Israel. It is vital to our own safety."

One issue raised by those in the audience struck a chord specific to Northwest Louisiana in the extension of Interstate 49 north from Shreveport to Arkansas. All three candidates committed to helping secure money for the more than $400 million project and criticized Landrieu for not getting more money for the interstate.

The three Republicans will face Landrieu on the Nov. 5 ballot. One other Democrat with little name recognition, the Rev. Henry Brown of New Orleans, also has announced his plans to run. Official qualifying, which begins today, will determine if anyone else will be on the ballot.

[Theodore R.]

In 1836, the newly-created Whigs ran regional "favorite-sons" in an attempt to defeat Vice President Martin Van Buren, running as the Democrat choice to succeed President Andrew Jackson. For instance, in TN, the Whigs ran Governor Hugh White; in New England, Senator Daniel Webster; in NC, Senator Willie Mangum; in the OH Valley, General William Henry Harrison. The Whigs collectively polled nearly as many popular votes as did Van Buren. Yet Van Buren had the decisive electoral-college majority due to the diffusion of the Whig vote. Four years later the Whigs got behind one candidate -- Harrison -- who went on to unseat Van Buren, who by then was unfairly blamed for the Panic {now called depression} of 1837.

I would imagine that the three LA Republicans will also come up so far behind popular Democrat Senator Landrieu (most LA conservatives think she is "conservative") that none will get enough votes to place Mrs. Snellings (her married name) into a runoff in December. Therefore, Landrieu will be declared the reelection victor minutes after the polls close at 8 p.m. Central time on November 5, 2002. LA has not elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction. It is always safe to call LA as "Democrat."

[1Old Pro]

One would think that LA would be a bastion of Southern conservatives who would elect Republicans. I think it's more like Rhode Island where the Democrats are as corrupt as the mob and buy elections.

[A2J]

It is always safe to call LA as "Democrat."

Only for senator. Republicans have made tremendous inroads on the local level and solidly votes Republican in presidential elections (with the exception 1992).

[lgjhn]

Yep, with all the dead people, new born babies, ane even the family dogs all voting for the RATs, they are hard to beat in LA. The Republicans need to learn to take the gloves off and come out swinging....but I doubt that will happen anytime soon.

[A2J]

One would think that LA would be a bastion of Southern conservatives who would elect Republicans.

One problem Louisiana Republicans have had over the years is that they tend to pay more attention to what the national leaders tell them instead of listening to and battling for the locals.

Besides, Louisiana Democrats are generally far more conservative than the Northeasterners or West Coast lunatics.

[Congressman Billybob]

As I understand Louisiana law, they have an "open" primary, meaning that all candidates run against each other. If, in that mess, one candidate gets more than 50%, he/she is elected. But if the leading candidate does NOT get 50%, there is a run-off against the candidate in second place. It looks like Landrieu will have a runoff against whichever Republican candidate leads that field.

Congressman Billybob

Click for latest column: "The Truth of a Gravel Road."

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[Coop]

Exactly right, Billy. So, while I understand the electoral college analogy, it doesn't fit here. If the three Pubbie candidates (four if Gov. Foster makes the plunge, as is rumored today) take enough of the vote to get Landrieu at 49% or less, then she has to face the second-place vote getter in December.

I had just about written this race off (still have to give the edge to Landrieu, for sure), but the LA GOP has found some creative ways to keep my interest. :-)

[Coop]

Excerpt from today's N.O. Times Picayune:

BATON ROUGE -- Gov. Foster is being encouraged to file this week as a Republican challenger to U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., his spokeswoman said Tuesday, a day before qualifying for the Nov. 5 election begins.

Foster, 72, has twice been elected governor with more than 60 percent of the vote and is barred by term limits from seeking a third consecutive term. He has said several times in the past that he has no interest in going to Washington.

"He has not changed his mind," spokeswoman Marsanne Golsby said. "He is getting increasing encouragement to do so. It has intensified in recent days because the clock is ticking. He has until Friday at 5 o'clock (when qualifying ends) to make up his mind. I would be surprised if he did it."

Foster was not available for comment.

But state GOP Chairwoman Pat Brister said that Foster "is seriously looking" at making the race.

"He is talking about it to several people," she said. Brister declined to say who has approached Foster about running. She said the governor's entrance into the campaign would "change the dynamics" of the race...

Senate President John Hainkel, R-New Orleans, said he met recently with Foster and the governor said "he had a meeting that lasted a couple hours with somebody that was relatively influential in this state and received a couple calls urging him to run. While he indicated he wasn't interested, I got the impression that at least he was considering it."

Stephen Perry, president of the New Orleans Metropolitan and Visitors Bureau and Foster's chief of staff until last week, said he would be shocked if Foster ran for Senate.

"I think Mike Foster would want to run for the U.S. Senate and move to Washington, D.C., about as much as he'd like to be an astronaut and fly to Jupiter," Perry said.

Ed Renwick, director of Loyola University's Institute of Politics, said he also is skeptical that Foster would run.

"He doesn't like to leave the state, and it's difficult to be a U.S. senator and stay in Louisiana," Renwick said. "Seniority is also important, and at his age he would have to be there until he was very old before he had any significant seniority."

[Hellwege]

If Foster were to run he would win easily

[Coop]

Doubtful. He'd be running against a well funded incumbent with good re-elect numbers. Would he win? Maybe. But easily? I don't think so.

[Hellwege]

Foster's numbers are awesome, Landrieu has won 50% against Jenkins, Foster is much better, he will have enough national money, I believe in a 54% win for Foster

[Theodore R.]

Were Foster to run for senator and win, the governorship would pass for a full year to Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat who is already the favorite to succeed Foster. I think there is no chance that Foster would run for senator. If he did, he might be able to force Landrieu into a runoff, but I still think LA voters will stick with "their Mary" regardless of what Foster does.

[Theodore R.]

Here's why the 1836 Whig analogy fits for the LA Senate race of 2002: the Whigs wanted to consolidate their total electoral votes behind one candidate. However, Van Buren got an easy electoral majority. There was no Whig electoral vote to consolidate after all. Yet in popular votes, all the Whigs got nearly as much as Van Buren.

[Theodore R.]

Thanks to the defection of Billy Tauzin, the Republicans have held the majority of U.S. House seats from LA since 1995. But in many races, Republicans do not even field candidates, particularly for mayor's offices, city councils, parish police juries (called commissions in other states), even district attorneys. And the most Democrat of all offices in LA is the parish sheriff. I am uncertain if any parish has ever elected a Republican sheriff. If so, it must have been a short-lived phenomenon. LA is still in the clutches of Napoleonic "democracy." LA voters place a lot of interest in sheriff elections, and only Democrats can seriously contest a sheriff's race. Sheriffs are tax collectors in LA, more so than law enforcement officers. They enforce laws only in the parishes, not in the cities and towns. Yet the cities and towns have to finance sheriff department operations.

[Theodore R.]

LA has voted for Eisenhower (1956), Goldwater, Nixon (1972), Reagan (twice), Bush I (1988), and Bush II (2000). Notice that LA easily fell once for Carter and twice for Clinton. No Republican is yet believed competitive for the 2003 governor's race. No Republican until Foster had ever been reelected governor either. Generally the LA "democracy" works with the support of nearly all blacks and 35 percent of whites, usually in a coalition from the very upper class as well as the lower socio-economic class. It's very hard to succeed in LA as a Republican. Even when a Republican wins there, he spends all his time catering to Democrats.

[kms61]

Foster was one of the most popular governors in Louisiana history during his first term, but has squandered his political capital in his second. He's dropped the ball on education reform and economic development, to name a couple of prime issues. His popularity may be comparatively high, but it's nowhere near what it was in his prior term. I've seen him garner high praise on this forum from out of state people...If they investigated where he stands on various issues, they might be a bit surprised, and a bit less inclined to praise him.

[Coop]

Here's why the 1836 Whig analogy fits for the LA Senate race of 2002: the Whigs wanted to consolidate their total electoral votes behind one candidate. However, Van Buren got an easy electoral majority. There was no Whig electoral vote to consolidate after all. Yet in popular votes, all the Whigs got nearly as much as Van Buren.

I understood your point. I'm simply maintaining that the goal here is to submarine one opponent, thereby hopefully forcing a follow-on election where the GOP can be more competitive.

It doesn't really sound like Foster wants to come to D.C., does it? :-) But we'll see if he can turn down a Presidential phone call this evening.

[Theodore R.]

No, there is no way that Foster will run for this seat. And the White House, after flirting with Cooksey, has apparently anointed the elections commissioner -- Terrell. The problem for the LA Republicans is that many of their own members are supporting Landrieu because they also supported incumbent John Breaux in 1992 and 1998. Most LA voters think that Landrieu and Breaux have identical voting records. Republicans have done a poor job of exposing Landrieu's liberal record.

[Coop]

And the White House, after flirting with Cooksey, has apparently anointed the elections commissioner -- Terrell.

:-) I guess you missed the articles yesterday discussing that President Bush would be calling Foster last night to urge him to run? I didn't make that up. Whether the President is able to convince someone who doesn't sound very interested remains to be seen.

[Theodore R.]

Yes, I did not see that part of the article that GWB would be calling Foster. I must have read it too quickly. I BELIEVE that I read a few weeks back that Karl Rove had helped to recruit Terrell on the theory that Cooksey was unelectable. Again though the typical LA conservative is still for Landrieu. It doesn't matter who else runs at this point.