Another Bumper Crop for CIS States

Moscow Times ^ | Friday, Aug. 9, 2002

[Stavka2]

Another Bumper Crop for CIS StatesBy Aleksandras Budrys

Reuters

	MT Lower domestic prices have made Russian grain more competitive internationally.

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the top grain producers in the Commonwealth of Independent States, will have high harvests and large exportable surpluses for the second year in a row, analysts said.

They will continue flooding their main export markets, mainly with wheat, but may also try tapping new ones such as Iran, where their interests may clash, they said.

"All three countries will have good grain harvests, slightly lower than last year, but above the average," said Andrei Sizov of leading Russian agricultural analysts SovEcon. "Competition between Russia and Ukraine will continue on their main export markets -- the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, while Russia and Kazakhstan may start fighting for Iran."

Russia's official 2002 grain crop forecast is 73 million to 76 million tons, down from 85 million tons last year. Some analysts believe the true total will be higher, but estimates differ.

Andrei Chernyshov, head of research at major Russian agricultural firm Rusagrocapital, put it at 84 million tons, while SovEcon's Sizov estimates it at around 80 million tons.

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Serhiy Ryzhuk raised the country's 2002 grain forecast last month to 35.5 million tons from 32.5 million tons previously. In 2001 the country harvested a record 39.7 million tons.

Ukrainian analysts say net grain production will be about 35 million tons this year. But Chernyshov said the crop could well be close to last year's level, while SovEcon's Sizov estimated it at 32 million to 33 million tons.

Kazakhstan in June forecast the harvest at 12 million to 13 million tons, down from 15.9 million tons last year.

Chernyshov said Kazakhstan could harvest 13.5 million tons, while Sizov sees it up to 14 million tons.

Analysts see export prospects for all three states as better than last year, as lower crops expected from Argentina, the United States, Canada and Australia were likely to boost demand.

Kazakhstan's main export markets last year were CIS countries, Iran and Afghanistan. Its exports to Uzbekistan are expected to shrink this season after Tashkent announced a record crop of 5.34 million tons, up from 3.99 million tons in 2001.

"With falling Uzbek demand, Kazakhs will be fighting for Iran, where they will meet Russians," Sizov said.

He said Russian firms planned to ship grain from the Caspian ports of Astrakhan and Makhachkala to enter the Iranian market.

Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev said this week that Russia may export 5 million to 6 million tons in the 2002-03 agricultural year, unchanged from last year.

SovEcon forecasts Russian grain exports this season at 6 million tons, close to last season's 6.2 million, while Chernyshov sees a rise to 8 million or 9 million tons.

Sizov said that lower domestic prices have made Russian grain more competitive. Russia could export to Iraq, which said last month it would halve wheat imports from Australia in response to support for U.S. strikes against Baghdad, he said.

"If the threat materializes, Russia may be able to supply up to 200,000 tons of wheat to Iraq," Sizov said.

Chernyshov said Brazil had expressed interest in buying Russian wheat, as it had problems with imports from its main supplier, Argentina.

But Sizov called such prospects "rather exotic" because of strict Brazilian import controls and stringent standards demanded by Brazilian millers on imported grain.

[Stavka2]

So much for the theories that Ukraine fed Russia....

[stylin_geek]

Under the Czars, Russia was a net exporter of food. Under Communist rule, the USSR could not feed itself. Now, with the disintegration of the USSR, the States that once were part of the USSR are exporting food again. Rather interesting, don't you think?

[The Other Harry]

I hope those countries all thrive and prosper.

[Stavka2]

The farmers' Agrarian Party is fighting AGAINST farm reform and land reform. They don't want to own their land, because then they will be forced to compete with each other.

[FreedomPoster]

Rather interesting? Rather predictable, methinks.

[varon]

...... in Wisconsin if you aren't milking 300 cows like my cousin Emil you can't earn a living.

Wow, your cousin must be really fast with his fingers. Now, if he was to use milking machines then perhaps his efficiency would increase and his profit as well ;-)

[FreedomFarmer]

Congratulations!

There was not a single FACT in your first paragraph.

NOT ONE!

Please quit running from thread to thread claiming some divine expertise on every subject.

You know nothing about this subject. Shut up, read and learn.

Oh, and welcome to FreeRepublic, twit.

[FreedomFarmer]

1. Farm Bureau is a fraternal insurance company, NOT a farm co-operative AS YOU CLAIM.

2. The richest farm land in the world is roughly located in the area of SW Iowa, SE Nebraska, NW Missouri, & NE Kansas. FACT. NOT a vague, urban legend, claimed by the same folks that wrote 5 year plans every other week. FACT.

3. The highest aggregate soviet yields have never been within 20% of the LOWEST recorded yield (1938) for this area in the mid-west. WRONG AGAIN!

4. STUPIDLY claiming ONLY a multi-thousand arce wheat farm or ONLY a multi-hundred head dairy can "make a living", proves your ignorance of the cultural, financial, and management practices of American Agriculture, and capital investment.

5. Baseing your VAST KNOWLEDGE and EXPERTISE of Agriculture in Russia and the U.S., on your recollections of chating with YOUR BROTHER-IN-LAW is NOT an acceptible standard to any sentient being.

6. You like to attack when you are caught lieing.
Insults fly off your fingers as fast as your fraudulent claims. That is the antics of a petulant child, and the tactics of the socialists. Take this mild rebuke like a man for once.

Please bear in mind, your mindless claims, false statements, and self-important posts will be as easily deflated by FReepers that know the subject you pontificate on.

You might be registered, but you are NOT a FReeper. Shut up and grow up, and some day you might be a FRiend.