Posted on 08/05/2002 9:55:17 AM PDT by dead
National Democratic leaders have long considered it a wasted effort to sink cash or time into trying to win the Republican stronghold of New Jersey's 5th Congressional District.
After Marge S. Roukema won the seat 22 years ago, the district was reconfigured into a GOP safe haven, stretching across northern New Jersey's well-heeled suburbs and rural farmlands.
Some brave Democrat would emerge every two years to challenge Roukema, only to be trounced in November after an uphill battle with token support from the national party.
"My guess is that between the Democratic National Committee and the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee], $9 has gone into that district in the last decade," said Bob Sommer, a Democratic strategist from Roukema's hometown of Ridgewood. "Maybe they'd get some endorsements," he said. "They'd never get money."
But now, the Democrats hear opportunity knocking.
As congressional Democrats seek to regain control of the House of Representatives, NJ-5, as it's known to political strategists, has suddenly earned a red flag on the party's battle map.
With Roukema retiring, a belief that the Republican nominee to replace her - state Assemblyman Scott Garrett - could be vulnerable, and with an ex-Republican running for their party, Democrats in Washington are making it clear they will target the boomerang-shaped district in their effort to regain House control.
"It will be a top priority to us," said Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, touting the Democratic candidate, ophthalmologist Anne Sumers. "With Marge Roukema's retirement, we have a huge opportunity to pick up a seat."
Republicans say the Democrats - who are trying to chip away at a slim six-seat Republican majority in the House - are kidding themselves and may simply be trying to hype the race because there are so few competitive ones across the country this year.
"It would make me question their political judgment," said Lea Anne McBride, press secretary for the National Republican Campaign Committee. "It's a Republican-leaning district, and these folks are going to elect Scott Garrett."
Battle takes shape
Political oddsmakers say it's still too early to gauge just how much of a contest it will be.
Nonetheless, the battle shaping up between Garrett and Sumers is starting to attract national money and attention as those in the political arena look to identify races that could affect control of the House.
Political analysts are keeping a close eye on it. Ideological groups have invested sizable chunks of money. And pundits have started talking up the race on political cable TV shows.
"It's obviously now on people's radar screens," said Amy Walter, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report in Washington. "It's a classic showdown in suburban America."
Part of the appeal of the Garrett-Sumers race is the story behind it. There are clear ideological differences - the 42-year-old Garrett, an abortion opponent and gun-rights advocate from rural Wantage vs. the 45-year-old Sumers, an abortion-rights and gun-control advocate from suburban Upper Saddle River. But in a sense, some also see the battle as an outgrowth of a rivalry that has existed for the past few years between Roukema and Garrett.
Backed by conservatives in the GOP, Garrett challenged the centrist Roukema in the 1998 and 2000 Republican primaries, accusing the congresswoman of being a closet liberal. Sumers, then a Republican, helped Roukema raise money for those races, in which the congresswoman edged her conservative rival.
Switches parties
When Roukema announced her retirement last year, Sumers - convinced that the next primary winner would be Garrett or another conservative like him - left the GOP and entered the race as a Democrat.
The Democrats suddenly figured they had a potentially viable candidate in Sumers, an ex-Republican who likened herself to Roukema. And when Garrett defeated two state legislators from Bergen County to win the GOP nomination, the Democrats immediately began touting the race as the ideological equivalent of Garrett vs. Roukema III.
Roukema herself has remained quiet about how or whether she will weigh in on the race.
As buzz about the contest stirs in Washington, party committees and special interest groups are starting to mobilize behind each candidate.
A fund-raising committee started by Sen. Jon S. Corzine gave Sumers $23,000. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's committee gave her $5,000.
Even bigger fund-raising news for Sumers came when she was endorsed by Emily's List, a network of political donors who back pro-choice Democratic women candidates. The endorsement could mean more than $100,000 in direct campaign cash and potentially several hundred thousand in indirect expenditures such as TV ads.
"I think our members will be very excited about this race," said Emily's List President Ellen Malcolm. "The last thing they want to see is another right-wing Republican who is going to spend his life trying to take away a woman's right to choose."
'Talk of Capitol Hill'
Pro-business Democrats also have taken a liking to Sumers.
"She's been the talk of Capitol Hill since she came down to visit us and made the rounds," said Rep. Ron Kind of Wisconsin, co-chair of Congress' New Democrat Coalition, a bloc of 70 centrist, pro-business Democrats.
Kind plans to visit the 5th District to campaign for Sumers, and the coalition's fund-raising arm is expected to endorse her. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, D-Conn., who helped found the New Democrat movement, also has told the Sumers team that he may campaign for her, said Sumers' campaign manager, Jeffrey Garcia.
Buzz about the race has also helped Sumers put together a corps of field organizers. Nine campaign workers - college students or recent graduates from Texas, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey - are staying with Sumers supporters who volunteer to give them a room, technically an in-kind contribution.
"We have these people living all over the district," Garcia said.
Garrett, who during his primary battles has relied almost solely on volunteers and a part-time campaign manager, has beefed up his staff as well.
Evan Kozlow, a consultant during Garrett's primary run - and last year, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bret Schundler's political director - became Garrett's first full-time campaign manager. A field director and fund-raising coordinator also were hired.
"One of our big advantages is we have an organization that has been in existence four or five years," said Jeff Clauss, an optometrist from Sparta who managed Garrett's primary campaigns and now serves as campaign chairman. "We took our existing volunteer staff and added to that the professional staff."
Republicans in Washington maintain the Democrats are wasting their money, but they have indicated they will mobilize their own big guns to make sure the district remains the GOP's.
Big GOP contributors
After Garrett's June 4 primary win, the leadership funds of virtually every significant Republican in the House started funneling money to Garrett's war chest - $10,000 from Republican Whip Tom Delay of Texas, $5,000 from Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois, $5,000 from House Majority Leader Dick Armey of Texas.
Speculation has buzzed across the state as to whether President Bush will visit the district on Garrett's behalf, although Kozlow says nothing has been planned.
The National Rifle Association has given nearly $10,000 to the Garrett campaign, and state and national pro-life groups have chipped in a combined $8,000.
Garrett also will get substantial help from the Club for Growth, a network of Reagan-inspired economic conservatives that contributed more than $130,000 to Garrett during the primary and spent $100,000 on TV ads.
David Keating, the club's executive director, said he's not too worried about the race and called the Democrats' attention a lot of hype.
"There are so few competitive races," he said. "If [the Democrats] don't talk it up and attract money, it's not going to be even remotely competitive."
Keating also dismissed the notion that Sumers will be able to persuade fiscal conservatives in the district to vote for a Democrat.
"If you have any proclivities to controlling spending or taxes, you wouldn't run as a Democrat," Keating said of Sumers. "[Democrats] will ostracize you, stick you in the wrong committees, never let your bills come up. There is zero chance she would ever get on the tax-writing committee if she believes anything like that."
Race to watch
Political oddsmakers in Washington say it's still too early to judge the potential outcome of the 5th District battle.
The Cook Political Report, one of the more closely watched campaign scoreboards in Washington, still has the race as "likely Republican." But Walter, the report's House analyst, says Sumers is starting to gain steam.
"The seeds are planted here," she said. "[Sumers] has a good message, a good campaign. But obviously the Republicans are not going to roll over on this seat."
Stuart Rothenberg, another Washington political analyst, said he will include the Garrett-Sumers race among his 50 races to watch this year, though he said the race is Garrett's to lose.
The mere fact that conservative gubernatorial candidate Bret Schundler carried the district against Governor McGreevey last year indicates that it's still a Republican stronghold, he said.
"That leads me to believe that if Garrett does everything right, he ought to be able to carry it," Rothenberg said. "I think the question is: Does he run a bad campaign? Does he make mistakes? Does he take the race for granted? Does he go out of his way to alienate moderates?"
Shannon D. Harrington's e-mail address is harrington@northjersey.com
When Roukema announced her retirement last year, Sumers - convinced that the next primary winner would be Garrett or another conservative like him - left the GOP and entered the race as a Democrat.
Roukema herself has remained quiet about how or whether she will weigh in on the race.
This is the sort of crap conservatives get from the GOP in this state.
The way I look at it now, there’s one party in power in NJ – it’s composed of all democrats and 80% or so of the Republican politicians. This one party will do anything they can to keep the “Schundler wing” (of which Scott Garrett is a solid soldier) from gaining ground.
Garrett will make a GREAT representative, if he can hold on.
Garrett will make a GREAT representative, if he can hold on.
I used to live in the 5th. Roukema was a Whitman clone and she kept winning GOP primaries simply because people there find fishing a lot more important than voting in a primary. Then they had no choice but to vote for her in the general election.
I just don't see how a Demo could win that seat. Unless the fine people there would find fishing a lot more important then voting in a general election. And this may very well be the case, given how interchangeable the 2 'maojor' parties have become lately.
Garrett will make a GREAT representative, if he can hold on.
I used to live in the 5th. Roukema was a Whitman clone and she kept winning GOP primaries simply because people there find fishing a lot more important than voting in a primary. Then they had no choice but to vote for her in the general election.
I just don't see how a Demo could win that seat. Unless the fine people there would find fishing a lot more important then voting in a general election. And this may very well be the case, given how interchangeable the 2 'maojor' parties have become lately.
She was a total disaster, and Garrett came close twice to defeating her (he had my vote in the second primary, I lived elsewhere during his first campaign.)
Losing a sitting RINO congressman in a primary with a conservative would have been humilating for "the party". Shame it didn't happen.
I used to reside in White Twp. and I'm still passing through Warren Cty. on my way to work.
I guess you moved to Pennsylvania? Not great (politically) but about as good as you can get in the northeast.
NJ is trying to catch up to NY and Mass in terms of liberal idiocy.
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