Tennessee Primary Results - Running Thread

N/A | 8/1/02 | Coop

[CPT Clay]

Message to Whitehouse...25 days in Aug...Get our Senate Back!!!!!!!!!SD,MN,MO and now NJ are up for grabs. I don't believe that CO is in play anymore. AR must be defended. and I cant for the life of me understand why MT, La and Ga are not closer?!?!?! Of course open seats in NC,SC,TX, and TN must be defended.

[Coop]

I don't believe that CO is in play anymore.

I wouldn't say Allard is out of trouble in CO, but it's also not that close right now either. I think the Carolinas are safe seats for the GOP. You forgot to mention that the Dems are going to make quite a run at NH. But the Pubbies also have a shot at IA, with an outside shot at GA. MT and LA, the incumbents have done a nice job, and the GOP didn't get top-tier candidates. Pubbie Smith in OR seems to be in pretty good shape now, since Kitzhaber declined to run.

[jdub]

polls close at 7

[Coop]

Any reports of turnout??

[CPT Clay]

You're right about NH. I understand that Shaheen will have a diffficult time running on her record.(kind of what is hamperering gray davis)

[GraniteStateConservative]

TN has this weird pre-primary voting system. They've been voting for like a week or so already. Indications from that are that turnout will be high. Conventional wisdom is that that helps Lamar Alexander-- very conservative candidates do better in primaries with low turnout where they can mobilize small armies to win their candidate the primary, whereas high turnout favors those less politically and ideologically connected (people who will vote on named ID more than anything else and Lamar has the edge in name ID).

[GraniteStateConservative]

The problem with Shaheen's chances is that Craig Benson (the likely gubernatorial nominee) is going to be funding the largest GOP GOTV effort ever in the state this fall. It will take a lot of split-ticket voting for her to fight the surge of GOP voters coming to the polls. Her record isn't all that bad (though she's definitely been a partisan Democrat governor)-- it's just non-existent. No voter can really think of anything she's accomplished.

[GraniteStateConservative]

In 19 days- 8/20/02.

[TontoKowalski]

Thank you, I can't wait to see if the madwoman gets toppled.

[07055]

Have any of you written to the Shelby County Young Republicans to voice your concern about the endorsement of Democrat AC Wharton by Chairman Rick Rout?

[GraniteStateConservative]

From D. C. sources:

Both White House and Capitol Hill staffers expect that Republican approval numbers should move up a bit, if only because Bush intends to travel in August to campaign for Republican candidates and press his agenda. "Unless there is a huge screwup somewhere, he's going to be looking pretty good for the next few weeks," says a House Republican leadership staffer. "And if he looks good, we look good."

[Coop]

Make sure you get the stock market to cooperate.

[Coop]

Excerpt from a CBS report I was reading. During August, the president has political trips planned for Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

I'm surprised by NM a bit. Guess he'll be supporting the 2nd District race, and nominally supporting the Gov race (although I don't know that Richardson can be beat). [sigh]

[jdub]

The lady at the polls said it was packed to the gills early. I voted around 10:30 and it was almost empty. Of course thats just my precinct. I went by the local Repub hqtrs, but they didn't have their cable up yet (new office).

[TheBigB]

Just got in from voting for Ed and Van. Not many folks there, but the lady said it had been pretty steady for the day.

[Coop]

Thanks for the updates.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Excerpt from a CBS report I was reading. During August, the president has political trips planned for Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

I'm surprised by NM a bit. Guess he'll be supporting the 2nd District race, and nominally supporting the Gov race (although I don't know that Richardson can be beat). [sigh]

I'm disappointed by the PA trip-- that smells of 2004 politics. The state legislature did a superb job on redistricting. He should be focusing on the senate races like a laser beam. This may be a trip for Fisher. Maybe he would prefer the state he hopes to win in 2004 to have a GOP governor. I think it doesn't make much difference. The South routinely elects Democrat governors and supports GOP presidential nominees.

The WI race must be a favor for Tommy Thompson-- but I think McCallum is a lost cause. I think Georgia would be smarter than GA.

The Democrats gerrymandered well, but there are some pick-up possibilities in GA. GA-12 does have a lot of black voters (and was drawn for black Democrat Champ Walker) in it (42%), but a dynamic radio-show hostess and former Democrat and the UGA Athletic Director's wife is running (and is ahead in GOP fundraising) in this open seat race. Rep. Norwood (of Gore's "What about Dingle-Norwood?!?") doesn't approve of her because she was once a Democrat (like Reagan, someone should tell Rep. Norwood) so she has to deal with a primary challenge. This seat is imminently winnable by Dooley. She will do well with all the white voters (even white Democrats that voted for Bush in 2000) and could pick off some black voters because of her UGA connections. Bush could use her candidacy in so many ways-- showing that we have a big tent, that he promotes the candidacies of women, that he rejects the stupidity that controls the GA-GOP and kept Rep. Johnny Isakson from most assuredly beating Cleland by pushing charisma-impaired Guy Millner because Isakson is only moderately pro-life, and to encourage black voters (in all of Georgia) to give the GOP a look.

He could even support the GOP opponent in McKinney's race-- a protege of Bush's Office of Personnel Management Director Kay James, a black woman named Catherine Davis. He could show that he's interested in supporting black GOP candidates-- regardless of their chances.

Plus, Saxby Chambliss could use the help.

[Alabama_Wild_Man]

The crew at my post told me that the turnout has been "Very Low", so far. But that may change at the shift-change...

[Coop]

I'm sure he'll make it down to GA eventually. Concerning McCallum in WI, you surprise me a bit. Lost cause? I've seen three polls, and McCallum leads in all of them by 3-6 points. Fairly poor numbers for an incumbent (he's at 39-42%), but he's currently outperforming his opponent(s).

[Diddle E. Squat]

Maybe he would prefer the state he hopes to win in 2004 to have a GOP governor. I think it doesn't make much difference.

Oh, but it can make a huge difference. Fraud suppression, for starters.