Survey USA Poll on Channel 12: Shallenburger winning (even in the East!)

KWCH TV | 7/30/2002 | myself

[rwfromkansas]

Okay folks....here is one of the few scientific polls I have seen and the results are good news for Shallenburger.

In the STATEWIDE scientific poll aired on Channel 12 from Survey USA (not sure how many voters were polled), here are the results:

Shallenburger: 35% Knight: 30% Kerr: 22% Bloom: 5% undecided: 8%

Even more interesting is the results of the geographic regions. In the west, Shallenburger leads. In the east, Shallenburger leads by a larger margin than in the west, 40%. In the small area considered the south, Knight leads.

Also interesting is that almost half of the voters surveyed identify themselves as conservative and their votes largely are going to Shallenburger.

[rwfromkansas]

Good news...will need to make sure we beat back Knight's attempts at making up the ground.

[rwfromkansas]

This poll did not do a hypothetical Shallenburger/Sebelius matchup.

[rwfromkansas]

thought you might be interested

[rwfromkansas]

I e-mailed it to the Shallenburger campaign and said I hope they step up the ads, especially in Wichita. Knight and Kerr are both ripping Shallenburger right now and it would be nice to see more of an effort at beating them back so he gets the undecideds.

[curmudgeonII]

Kansas, I presume?

[rwfromkansas]

Yes. Shallenburger is the only conservative candidate and it seems like KS has a hard time electing conservatives to the governor's office for some reason. But, he is ahead in the GOP primary.

[AdA$tra]

Sweet. If old fashion Kansas politics tradition hold, then Tim can do this. The most Important geographic region is still everything but Topeka, Johnson/Wyandotte County and Wichita. Not as true as it once was but still true to a degree. Early returns always look good for the liberals, but hold on until the rural precincts report.

[dd5339]

My wife & daughter stopped by the Shallenburger rally this afternoon in Oskaloosa. The press was there from Topeka, seems my daughter got a starring role on WIBW news.

My wife got the chance to check with the candidate about a couple of key issues. Tim is pro life and will sign a CCW bill if it comes to him!

Semper Fi!

[rwfromkansas]

The Topeka Capitol Journal will release the results of its poll starting Thursday. Other affilites will also be releasing the results through Sunday...AP etc. and some tv/radio stations, but I assume the CJ would release it first.

[rwfromkansas]

Saw another poll today in the Hutchinson News (from Mason Dixon). This one isn't so good. Tim is behind Knight by 5 points (according to KWCH, Tim is ahead 5 points). Only 400 registered voters were polled by Mason Dixon however, not a big sample.

The one big thing in the poll is that it says 20% are still undecided! If this is true, it means Tim could still win even if he is behind 5 points right now. However, we need to sway the undecideds......e-mail all your friends/family and ask them to e-mail all theirs. Send money to the SHallenburger campaign if you can and ask them to get more ads out ASAP because Knight is running ads like crazy.

Write to your newspapers!! This election is going to be close and every vote will count.....

[rwfromkansas]

Here is the poll conducted for the Shallenburger campaign. It shows him way ahead (not a surprise for a campaign poll), but also shows some interesting breakdowns of voters that may be somewhat important pointers for Tuesday.

(Topeka, Kansas) Saying that it is a “call to action, not to rest,” Shallenburger for Governor campaign manager Alan Cobb released a memo from the campaign’s pollster revealing that Tim Shallenburger has taken a commanding lead in the Republican primary election contest.



“We are very encouraged by this news,” Cobb stated. “It serves to reenergize our troops, who can see that the fruits of our labor will be rewarded. It is clear from this poll that most Kansans agree that raising taxes is not the answer. The people clearly trust Tim Shallenburger to find a better way.”



The poll, conducted by the Oklahoma City based firm of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, shows Tim Shallenburger with a twelve-point lead over Wichita Mayor Bob Knight, who places second, just ahead of State Senator Dave Kerr. Fully 32% of Republicans in the state who say that they are likely to vote in the August 6th primary remain undecided.



“The poll also indicates that Shallenburger’s on-ground organization is superior to that of either Knight or Kerr,” pollster Pat McFerron stated. “Shallenburger’s lead is widest among those who are aware of the election date. This group is the one most likely to actually vote.”



“This poll also reveals the real reason that our opponents are running negative attack ads against Tim. They know they can’t compete on the issue of how to make Kansas better. Clearly, they are desperate and are throwing all the mud they can, just hoping something sticks. I have faith that Kansas Republicans are smarter than that and won’t be fooled by their negative attacks,” Cobb continued.



Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates is a nationally recognized Republican political consulting and polling firm who previously published The Kansas Report – a polling newsletter covering politics in Kansas. During its publication in 1996, The Kansas Report was the first publication to show now Senator Sam Brownback overtaking Sheila Frahm in the Republican primary and was the only polling firm to publicly show Vince Snowbarger ahead of Ed Eilert in the Republican primary for congress.

(More)

SUMMARY ANALYSIS





DATE: July 31, 2002



TO: Alan Cobb

Campaign Manager

Shallenburger for Governor



FROM: Pat McFerron

Director of Survey Research

Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates



RE: A Survey of 450 Likely Republican Primary Voters

Conducted July 28 – 30, 2002

Margin of error: +/- 4.8%



The just completed survey of 450 registered voters who are likely to vote in the upcoming Republican Primary election reveals that Tim Shallenburger has taken a commanding lead in the gubernatorial primary, though a significant number of voters remain undecided. The current status of the ballot places Tim Shallenburger at 31%, Bob Knight at 19%, Dave Kerr at 17% and Dan Bloom at 1%. Almost a third of voters (32%) remain undecided. Given this late date, however, it is anticipated that many of those still undecided ultimately will decide not to participate. Among just those who are decided as to whom to support, Shallenburger’s lead is very impressive (46% Shallenburger vs. 28% Knight vs. 25% Kerr vs. 1% Bloom).


While the overall “horserace” numbers are encouraging for the Shallenburger campaign, other signs exist that show that the Shallenburger organizational effort will pay dividends on election day. For example, Shallenburger’s lead is wider among the 60% of the population that knows that the primary is scheduled for August 6th (34% Shallenburger vs. 17% Knight vs. 18% Kerr vs. 1% Bloom). This is the group most likely to vote on election day.



Tim Shallenburger currently holds substantial leads in the Topeka, Kansas City and Joplin/Pittsburg media markets. Shallenburger currently places a close second to Knight in those counties covered by the Wichita market (29% Shallenburger vs. 31% Knight vs. 15% Kerr).



Tim Shallenburger’s message of not raising taxes has played well with the conservative Kansas Republican electorate. He has a very wide lead among the 14% of the electorate that can be classified as extremely conservative (44% Shallenburger vs. 16% Knight vs. 13% Kerr), as well as among the 30% of the electorate that is very conservative (36% Shallenburger vs. 15% Knight vs. 17% Kerr). Shallenburger also leads among the 24% that label themselves as somewhat conservative (31% Shallenburger vs. 20% Knight vs. 16% Kerr). Furthermore, none of the candidates has been able to consolidate the 28% of the electorate that would be considered either moderate or liberal (20% Shallenburger vs. 24% Knight vs. 22% Kerr).



Barring a monumental change in the electorate, Tim Shallenburger should win the Republican Primary next Tuesday.

[rwfromkansas]

Poll update.....Channel 12 updated the poll results tonight. It is now 35% vs. 31%, with Knight gaining one point from the previous poll. Shallenburger is still ahead. It will be close though, that is for sure. Get out the vote!