It seems like a relatively small change in velocity now might result in a change of orbit large enough to have this totally miss the earth. If we add say 1m/sec of velocity in any direction now that is a net change of about 536,000 km which should be enough. How much of a rocket boost would that require? As I remeber my orbital physics a break-up of the asteroid into small enough pieces would also protect the planet as they would burn up on entering the atmosphere.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
It seems like a relatively small change in velocity now might result in a change of orbit large enough to have this totally miss the earth. I have a bit of a problem with this idea at this point. They don't know if it will hit, come close, or miss us by a LARGE distance. What happens if they nudge it INTO the path of the earth by accident?
Agreed, a small orbital change would do the trick. The question is, how ? Big 1-time impulse (i.e. use a nuke to push it away: I'd use several, myself, spaced over a period of days. . .), or long-term small input, i.e. constant impulse, a rocket, or more likely, a small mass-driver using asteroidal matter for reaction material. . .
I lean towards the several nukes school, give it a few good, hard nudges. We don't have a precise plot of the orbit, nor do we have a good idea of shape or rotation of the body. That will come in the upcoming months. If it DOES seem to be a problem (I define a "problem" as asteroid coming closer than lunar orbit. . . ), THEN we build ourselves a deep-space equivalent of a MIRVed ICBM, and send it off to nudge the rock out of our way. . .
As for the small pieces, you're correct, IF THE PIECES are small enough. If you break it into a conglomeration of city-block-sized pieces, you're going to have problems. . .
As I remember my history, this happens every 1,000,000 years or so.
It's the Universes way of cleansing... totally natural and organic... with a hint of extinction!.