[pyx]

We are looking at around 50% chance of a stranger perp grabbing Danielle as she played locally; around 40% chance that Daddy was molesting Danielle and the crime is related to that; around 20% chance that DW did commit a crime.

"We" ? :)
I don't understand where you are getting your percentages from. From what I recall, there is and was no evidence presented in the trial or preliminary hearing that Danielle was molested by David Alal Westerfield or by Damon Van Dam. In fact, there were no charges sought against DAW regarding molestation.

[crystalk]

I understand fully that only kiddie porn and murder are at the moment formally charged against DW, not sexual assault or molestation.

I am looking at the big picture, making a guess based upon all I know, as to what the likelihood is that various parties are in fact guilty of anything, whether yet charged or not.

Whoever killed this girl, violently hated her and killed her in a brutal manner, not consistent with mere sexual assault. Nor would DW, surely, have had any reason to murder her at all, much less brutally...his alleged pedophilia might argue why he may have sexually assaulted her, but that is not charged! It goes nowhere at all to explain why he would MURDER her, much less with the teeth being knocked out and other brutal and mutilating complications.