Posted on 07/23/2002 1:34:17 PM PDT by Damocles
By Nathan Cochrane
July 23 2002
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A draft government report says we will alter human evolution within 20 years by combining what we know of nanotechnology, biotechnology, IT and cognitive sciences. The 405-page report sponsored by the US National Science Foundation and Commerce Department, Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance, calls for a broad-based research program to improve human performance leading to telepathy, machine-to-human communication, amplified personal sensory devices and enhanced intellectual capacity.
People may download their consciousnesses into computers or other bodies even on the other side of the solar system, or participate in a giant "hive mind", a network of intelligences connected through ultra-fast communications networks. "With knowledge no longer encapsulated in individuals, the distinction between individuals and the entirety of humanity would blur," the report says. "Think Vulcan mind-meld. We would perhaps become more of a hive mind - an enormous, single, intelligent entity."
Armies may one day be fielded by machines that think for themselves while devices will respond to soldiers' commands before their thoughts are fully formed, it says. The report says the abilities are within our grasp but will require an intense public-relations effort to "prepare key organisations and societal activities for the changes made possible by converging technologies", and to counter concern over "ethical, legal and moral" issues. Education should be overhauled down to the primary-school level to bridge curriculum gaps between disparate subject areas.
Professional societies should be open to practitioners from other fields, it says. "The success of this convergent-technologies priority area is crucial to the future of humanity," the report says. wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC-pre-publication.pdf
From everything I can gather, they reckon this should take place in 35 to 50 years. Some reckon sooner of course.
The interesting thing about the timeline is because of the exponential effect of doubling computer speeds, they reckon we will only be half way to the coming singularity when we're only 6- 12 months away from it. People won't even realize. The last doubling effect will carry us much further than we would've imagined in a very short space of time.
When we invent the first computer that is just a wee bit more intelligent than us- it can begin to design the next computer and that one can design the next one ad infinitum until within a couple years time computers are so much more intelligent than us it'll make us look- well- silly. If the computers are benign, they will quickly compute all the solutions to all the things that concern mankind- longevity, cure for disease etc and possibly even show us how to become super intelligent or "trans-human" (I believe is the phrase that many Singularity enthusiasts like to use). After that, supposedly we would become like gods ourselves and could no longer be considered the same species and life after that point is simply unimaginable by the contemporary human of today- hence it being called "The Singularity"- a point it is impossible to see past or speculate beyond.
I'd say first we have to get to that point to even worry about that puzzle.
You want to read a little more about it, do a google for "Singularity" and in particular a guy called Eliezer Yudkowsky- he's written extensively on it- as a matter of fact, he thinks it should be the goal of humanity to get to the Singularity as quickly as possible because all problems will be solved at that point and every day we waste is another day we suffer needlessly. It's a little bit out there, but he's obviously an intelligent guy and it's interesting reading. If you search for him, you'll probably come across a piece he wrote called "The Low Beyond- Staring into the Singularity". That's a pretty good place to start.
Also, a book that provides a pretty good overview of the subject (the author is just collecting the ideas out there- not his original ones) is called "The Spike" and I believe the author's name is Damien Broderick. Probably not worth the hardcover price, but if you can find it in paperback, it's food for thought.
What we have in 2102 won't be post-singularity existence, but a much less-developed version, probably with State control of all the citizens like in our worst nightmares.
Anybody remember the particular mind-meld that some viewer called up the Today Show to ask Ross Perot about? Hee! Hee!
Some of the crazy implications of it- the Singularity enthusiasts don't call it downloading (human mind to computer) they call it uploading. But anyway, they reckon once we figure out quantum computing and nanotech, biotech etc to this point- we'd theoretically be able to upload the collective minds of all of humanity into a computer as small perhaps as a cube of sugar. Which would be fine until some Dilbert comes along and plops said sugar cube into his coffee cup. Whoops! So much for the human race!
But the enthusiasts on this subject are totally convinced to the contrary. So much so that they're already devising a humanitarian philosophy that will help those of them that become transhuman deal with the mere peons that don't- they don't want to treat 'em as serfs dontcha know.
One thing's for sure and this is what ever got 'em started speculating on the topic in the first place- if you plot the advance in computing speed on a linear graph, you see the implications of Moore's Law. If you assume that Moore's Law will remain constant- at some point about 35 years from now the advance in computing speed just shoots straight up through the top of the graph. Whatever happens at that point- even if the Singularity turns out to be a fizzler- it should still be very interesting.
Of course, this is assuming Moore's Law holds up for another 35 yrs.
Given this report, and that article, one would suspect that we may be about to mess things up big time.
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