China's Rise Is Inevitable -- So Deal With It

Forbes Magazine ^ | 6-28-02 | Mark Lewis

[AIG]

NEW YORK - A decade ago it was Japan that touched off nationalistic fears among Americans who worry about being out-competed by Asian industrialists. Now it is China's turn to generate the scare stories. The reflex cannot be helped, but nor should it be indulged in any policy sense. China's rise is inevitable and should not be viewed as a threat.

Consider this front-page story in today's New York Times: "China Emerges as Rival to U.S. in Asian Trade." That sort of headline will become commonplace in the next few years as China increases its dominance of East Asia's economy. Yet at the same time, U.S. exporters will benefit from the growth of China's internal market, and U.S. consumers will benefit by buying China's low-priced and increasingly high-quality exports.

China's rise does call for an adaptive response from Washington, which must find a graceful way to accommodate itself to the new regional superpower. But in terms of trade, the key policy already is in place--China was last year ushered into the World Trade Organization, under whose auspices this formerly closed society will be fully integrated into the global economy.

Of course, there's still the little matter of Taiwan, which the U.S. is pledged (in vague terms) to defend. The best-case scenario: China's embrace of capitalism forces it to evolve into a full-fledged democracy, as people who gain economic control over their lives insist on political control as well. If that happens, Taiwan will end up clamoring to merge with the mainland in order to avoid the fate of China's other small neighbors, which will find themselves overshadowed by the revitalized Middle Kingdom.

Let's minimize the hand-wringing over this situation. Would anybody seriously prefer that China had remained shackled to the Maoist precepts that kept its economy small and weak? In any case, that's not an option. China's emergence is a fact to be recognized rather than fretted over. And it is also an opportunity, because America with its flexible economic system is well positioned to adapt to new realities and benefit from them.

The supposed threat from Japan generated a lot of concern in the early '90s, yet nowadays the scare headlines are all about Japan's economic decline, which is seen as bad for the United States. If China's economy runs into serious trouble, that too will be bad news for America.

But China, even if it stumbles along the way, is a much better bet than Japan to eventually achieve regional dominance, both politically and economically. This will make some Americans nervous. They may as well start getting used to the idea now--and make plans to take advantage of it.

[laredo44]

PAPER TIGER -- There so far behind us in everything!

And they'll never be a threat as long as they embrace communism. The greater their adoption of capitalism, individual rights, and democracy, the greater will be their threat. Of course if they do that, they'll be an ally, not an enemy.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Dragon's Fury BUMP!

[arm958]

If China were killing off all its girls, its population couldn't keep growing today but it's still growing! I read the NY Times article about how Chinese boys were outnumbering girls, but of the 300 mil. Chinese born in the last 20 years, 140 mil. of them were females!

That's good news! Based on your statistics, only ten million Chinese girls have been murdered in the last 20 years. I thought it was more like 15 or 20 million. I feel better now, and I take back anything bad I said about the chicoms - NOT!

[danmar]

The chineese ruling class are quite possibly the most arrogant race on the planet. They are self centered and they will not stop until their rogues are brought under control, imho.

You just hit the nail on it's head my friend. Just to prove your point one does not have to travel to China or Taiwan to see that. Have you ever banked with any of those chinese owned banks?

Well, unfortunately, I have felt this on my own, when my bank(a small bank, where the bank teller knew me and my wife by the first name, and all the transactions were made on time and in good faith) was taken over by some chinese owned bank. Everything went to the dogs, personell change(almost all of them are chinese), they hold payroll checks in excess of at least 3 days, with absolutely no advance(even BofA is better at this), and a host of other things make you want to kill somebody.
If you are trying to reason with somebody about anything they just tell you flat out to go and pound sand...period.Customer service?...none existent;further more they never look in your eyes when talking to you.(i know there is a chinese/oriental custom for that, but when you tell me to go pound sand, you better tell me that with straight face and have some justification for that!

I live in Southern California, Arcadia,Monrovia area where there is a large population of orientals. I am from Europe and we Europeans like to congrate togheter and have a good time. Not so with the chinamens, they look at you like you are from a different planet. On different occasions I had the delight to meet some of the japanise/americans gals at your local Tokio Lobby which was a delightfull experience.
You go to a fast food chinese restaurant, they're barking your order and then slam the door shut on you. To summ it up the chinamen are very rude people, or this is the way they operate.

I do not know, but so far I had only bad experiences dealing with them.

[genefromjersey]

Really !

Isn't the name FORBES kind of familiar ? Good ol' Steve, who wanted to be President-but was pretty much laughed off the ballot ?

Is this the kind of crap he espouses ?

[Jeff Head]

Myself and AIG have had our go arounds on this issue.

I believe we both agree that the PRC will continue to grow and exert its influence. We disagree on why, and we disagree on where it leads. Mainly because of (IMHO) AIG's convoluted idea that freedom and liberty are principally about economic gain, that this is the basis for them. This as opposed to the more fundamental moral principles that our founders based it all upon, allowing such prosperity to be an outgrowth of those more fundamental principles.

As a result, in my estimation either we will take measures to forestall and prevent our own funding of an aggresive and belligerent nation (the PRC) whose intent will ultimately be to displace us in the Far East and elsewhere, a situation where our own monies and largess are used against us ... or it will lead to something akin to:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES
A Series on the Coming World War

FRegards.

[Jeff Head]

Ooops ... typo in the link. Here's the good one.

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES
A Series on the Coming World War

FRegards.

[applemac_g4]

"You fear China more as a capitalist country than as a communist country?"

I fear China more as a capitalist dictatorship than as a communist dictatorship.

[dalereed]

Force all US business to get out of China totally and put an embargo on any goods made there and they will revert to a 3rd world country in short order. If they want war over it, let's have at it now when we can crush them in short order.

[Jeff Head]

Amen, but they still have their communist tendancies at heart IMHO. They have just gotten a little wiser and found a new proletariat to milk ... us!

They know that continuing to milk their own people will only lead to bankruptcy ala the Soviet Union. So, they are using some very smart market driven strategioes (IMHO) to accomplish the same end. When they reach the point where they think it is self-funding, self-surviving ... they will move to eject us from the equation and attempt to complete their rise to dominance.

FRegards.

[DoughtyOne]

Much of your analysis applies directly to another nation in decline.

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you. Interesting comments.

[VaBthang4]

"China's Rise Is Inevitable -- So Deal With It"

That is an asinine statement.
How many drips said the same thing about the former Soviet Union?
There are a million and one different things that could occur to short circuit any "rise" by the Chinese. And as is usually the case with socialist countries.....whatever holds them back will be self inflicted.

[DBtoo]

No, I don't have the source sitting directly in front of me to confirm my blanket statement.

I have a relative who is an historian who was speaking about this. There have been civilizations in the past where infant girls were killed. It's not new. Also, it's not always a result of infanticide. For instance, in the early days of the US there were more men than women.

According to this relative, studies were done that showed whenever a population has too many males, wars occur, either civil wars or wars declared on other countries. By the way, the same thing is going on in India to some extent (killing of baby girls).

[RedWhiteBlue]

Japan's per-capita GDP today, even after 10 years of recession, is still the highest in the world at $39,000, higher than even America's. For Japan's GDP to have surpassed America's in the early 1990's, Japan's per-capita GDP would have had to have been about $45,000+, which is too much to ask for.

Where did you get your GDP data? The CIA WORLD FACTOBOOK and OTHER SOURCES document per capita GDP of the US is $36,200 (#2 behind Luxembourg's $36,400) while Japan's is in 14th place at $24,900.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

The page cannot be displayed

I clicked on your first link, anyhow. I heard that The Page Cannot Be Displayed is a goooooood anthology. :-)

[Lake]

>>. If they want war over it, let's have at it now when we can crush them in short order.

The atom bomb is a paper tiger which the U.S. reactionaries use to scare people. It looks terrible, but in fact it isn't. Of course, the atom bomb is a weapon of mass slaughter, but the outcome of a war is decided by the people, not by one or two new types of weapon.

All reactionaries are paper tigers. In appearance, the reactionaries are terrifying, but in reality they are not so powerful. From a long-term point of view, it is not the reactionaries but the people who are really powerful.

Chiang Kai-shek and his supporters, the U.S. reactionaries, are all paper tigers too. Speaking of U.S. imperialism, people seem to feel that it is terrifically strong. Chinese reactionaries are using the "strength" of the United States to frighten the Chinese people. But it will be proved that the U.S. reactionaries, like all the reactionaries in history, do not have much strength. In the United States there are others who are really strong -- the American people.

Take the case of China. We have only millet plus rifles to rely on, but history will finally prove that our millet plus rifles is more powerful than Chiang Kai-shek's aeroplanes plus tanks. Although the Chinese people still face many difficulties and will long suffer hardships from the joint attacks of U.S. imperialism and the Chinese reactionaries, the day will come when these reactionaries are defeated and we are victorious. The reason is simply this: the reactionaries represent reaction, we represent progress.

TALK WITH THE AMERICAN CORRESPONDENT
ANNA LOUISE STRONG

August 1946

From the
Selected Works of Mao Tse-tung,
Foreign Languages Press
Peking 1969

[TADSLOS]

China's rise is inevitable and should not be viewed as a threat.

Neville Chamberlain, is that you?

[RightWhale]

China's rise is inevitable and should not be viewed as a threat

It is inevitable and should be viewed as a threat like everything else. Mark Lewis might be from a different planet where creatures in Nature don't eat each other.

[Lake]

>>If you are trying to reason with somebody about anything they just tell you flat out to go and pound sand

Are you sure they are CHINESE?