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To: AdamSelene235
The Japanese were playing 1980 Texas-style land-flip games writ large (i.e. massive speculation), plus they have a rule that lets banks count the value of their real-estate into their whole stock market valuation equation.

If you see homeowners buying their homes one day and selling it the next day for 40% profit, then yes, you are witnessing a bubble on the rise.

It's extremely rare to see that sort of thing in residential real-estate (i.e. primary FNMA territory).

Unless you are seeing "Demand" getting juiced up by speculators, then there probably isn't a fundamental structural problem with American real-estate.

American corporate real-estate is priced lower than that in Moscow, London, and Tokyo, so if there is a bubble in commercial real-estate, we'll probably see it pop over in those locations long before it happens here (and I doubt that anyone seriously thinks that Japanese real-estate could still see massive new devaluations).

Home buyers in America are spending less than 30% (on average) of their incomes on their home mortgages, and more than 60% of American homes are owned debt-free (e.g. hi mom).

The fact of the matter is that people are willing to spend up to 50% of their income on their homes. Banks will easily loan up to 35% of your income, too.

But that's a long way from a collapse in home prices or a massive wave of defaults.

11 posted on 07/18/2002 9:42:18 PM PDT by Southack
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To: Southack
American corporate real-estate is priced lower than that in Moscow, London, and Tokyo, so if there is a bubble in commercial real-estate, we'll probably see it pop over in those locations long before it happens here (and I doubt that anyone seriously thinks that Japanese real-estate could still see massive new devaluations).

Office space? They don't participate in the GSE money pump so they are not distorted.

and more than 60% of American homes are owned debt-free (e.g. hi mom).

I find that hard to believe...Do you have a source?

The fact of the matter is that people are willing to spend up to 50% of their income on their homes. Banks will easily loan up to 35% of your income, too.

50% & a 30 year loan?

So it takes 15 years of labor to buy a house?

First time buyers have been shut out of the market in Cali,Colorado and the Northeast. Without 1st time buyers there are no 2nd time buyers.

13 posted on 07/18/2002 9:57:08 PM PDT by AdamSelene235
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