A status report on Wall Street's major indexes

Associated Press ^ | 7-11-02

[Oldeconomybuyer]

A surge of late-day bargain hunting lifted Wall Street to a mixed finish Thursday, overcoming an earlier selloff on brokerage downgrades of General Motors and word of a government investigation into Bristol-Myers' accounting practices. Analysts described the gains as a rebound rather than a rally, however, noting that market sentiment remains fragile.

[ken5050]

Dead cats are bouncing!!!

[rohry]

I figure that we've got another 35% more to go (down) before we get close to fair market value. After that the real recovery can begin...

[Prodigal Son]

Where's the bottom you figure? 7,000?

[Oldeconomybuyer]

I gave up trying to predict a bottom long ago. Two thoughts though; 1) the DOW has held up remarkably well (all things considered), and 2) I think technology and telcom are not even close to their bottoms.

[ken5050]

Closer to 6000 on the Dow is my estimate, and the Nasdaq will break 1000....

[dennisw]

6,000 is bottom DOW. Half of the top.

[Dick Vomer]

I figure that we've got another 35% more to go (down) before we get close to fair market value. After that the real recovery can begin

So fair market value in relations to what??? to PE.... but if you can't trust what the E (earnings) are how can you value the market? If you can't trust "cash flow"... how can you value a stock?

I was just wondering how you got the 35% drop.... or is that just something that sounds "about right"?

[Prodigal Son]

Wow, just when I thought people were ignoring me my "my comments" page lights up like a switch board.

6000? Wow! We've got some ride ahead then. People are going to be screaming bloody murder when it gets below 8,000. I figure the amount they'll scream is directly proportional to the amount they effused and bubbled over with joy when it broke through 7,000- 8,000- 9,000 etc on the way up! Climbing up that mountain of wealth is sure a pleasurable thing- climbing into that little red wagon to ride back down off that peak is the bad part.

When (and if) it hits 6,000 I'm going to throw everything I've got into it.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

[RightWhale]

An 11 point loss is practically a rally. Happy times are here again.

[ken5050]

Don't look at the Dow, or any index, as some kind of magical guide..we may be entering an era like the 60's when the Dow stayed flat for 10 years.......traded in a 750-1000 range..Look at the Nikkei..been essentially flat for 15 years. Also, bear markets don't usually just turn right around, there's always at least one big run up in the interim.....you might see the Dow hit 6,000, then a lot of folks think like you and shoivel it in, run it right up to 8,000, than see it drop right back to 5500......there's still a lot of irrational exuberence to overcome. Folks still think that Cisco and Intel, for example, will come back...ain't no way, and the whole telecom sector, which drove much of the Nasdaq bubble, will never recover....

[rohry]

I was just wondering how you got the 35% drop.... or is that just something that sounds "about right"?

It's a figure based upon where earnings were last summer. Because earnings have dropped drastically since then it may be way too conservative.

If I said how low they really have to go I'd be flamed endlessly, so I'll stick with a number that is probably way too high but indicates to everyone that we are nowhere near a bottom.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

...the whole telecom sector, which drove much of the Nasdaq bubble, will never recover....

I agree.

[dennisw]

6,000 DOW if we are lucky and I say we will be. Below 6,000 DOW means depression|severe recession. There was a lot of foreign money buoying the market indices and this money is receding. They also trusted annual reports and accounting reports. Foreign faith in the USA and US markets has been shaken. 

If we had not shown US might (read vitality and triumph) in Afghanistan, foreign perception would be even worse.

[doosee]

Also, bear markets don't usually just turn right around, there's always at least one big run up in the interim.....

The attack on Iraq and the ultimate victory via replacement of Saddam with a moderate regime will send the markets into the stratosphere. War starts in August with timing for the Nov. elections.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Juniper posts small profit, cuts jobs -AP Breaking News
(07-11) 15:12 PDT (AP) -- NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) -- Juniper Networks Inc., a maker of Internet networking equipment, Thursday posted a small second-quarter profit and announced it is cutting about 200 jobs, or 10 percent of its wor...

Deadline passes for bids on bankrupt telecom firm -AP Breaking News
SIMON AVERY, AP Business Writer
(07-11) 15:12 PDT LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Two California investment firms were among the parties to make a formal offer for Global Crossing Thursday, as a court deadline passed for bids on the bankrupt fiber optic network operator. G...

[ken5050]

I agree with you about the timing of the Iraq war this fall, and that will give the GOP the HOuse and senate, but there's lots more downside in the markets.....YOu're gonna see lots more stories of funny accounting coming out..remember, the new auditors that replaced Anderson are busy reviewing the last 10 years records of their new clients, and they have ONE chance to get the bad stuff out, before they "own" it.....also, the housing bubble will take a sharp correction...

[rohry]

Also, bear markets don't usually just turn right around, there's always at least one big run up in the interim.....you might see the Dow hit 6,000, then a lot of folks think like you and shoivel it in, run it right up to 8,000, than see it drop right back to 5500.....

Let's look at 1929 as an example of the truth in your statement. I count at least 6 dead cat bounces in 1929-1933, just 4 so far since 2000.

[Timesink]

The attack on Iraq and the ultimate victory via replacement of Saddam with a moderate regime will send the markets into the stratosphere. War starts in August with timing for the Nov. elections.

Heh, "Wag the Bull!" Normally, I'd be very uncomfortable with even the appearance of a wag-the-dog scenario coming out of the White House, but after all the wagging Billary did for eight years, I couldn't care less now. We're as much at war with the Rats as we are with terrorists.