Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: rohry
Thank you for the post!

'Very few analysts, anchors...even recognize the problem.'

Not a problem: A shake-out. I posted the following on another thread, but it is relevant here.

Please, Freepers, take a look at AAA corporate bond rates for the last, get this, 100 years. The pattern tells the tale. Then, please plot the S&P500, DJIA or any other major equity index since 1970. The retreat from the major market top starting in 1999 is abundantly clear. The phenomenon currently transpiring is largely driven by the massive secular retreat of interest rates since 1981. We have a classic 'head-and-shoulders' pattern of those rates extending over four decades. The two decades of declining rates had two primary effects:

1. Declining coupons on interest bearing instruments caused investors to migrate to equities looking for returns. The 401(k) effect and interest driven migration represented an influx of capital which generated great equity growth.

2. Declining interest rates also lowered the cost of borrowed capital. Again, companies could grow.

Now, the rates are bottoming. All of the 'energy' derived from declining rates is dissipating and the broad equity indices are responding appropriately. I am advising clients not to expect a return to the 1990's bull market...that really was the perfect (positive) equity storm. It is over.

Blessings to Freepers Everywhere.
12 posted on 07/09/2002 5:12:32 PM PDT by esopman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies ]


To: esopman
Good post. Next time provide us a chart (for the word-impaired; like me)...

Do you want me to add you to the ping list, or can you find your way here every night without it?
14 posted on 07/09/2002 5:37:35 PM PDT by rohry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson