Posted on 07/03/2002 10:26:58 AM PDT by Texaggie79
Right on the eve of Independence Day, a rather unexpected event has occured: Russian companies started direct oil supplies to the USA. Very few people believed that it would happen indeed.
Beginning of the oil supplies is very important from both political and economic points of view. First, Washington demonstrates its interest in a close partnership with Russia not only fixed in documents, but in practice first of all. Russias Astro Lupus oil tanker will be met by US Deputy Energy Minister Michael Smith and US Congress members Nicolas Lampson and Ken Bentsen. This fact demonstrates the importance of the deliveries.
It is no secret that the USA wants to reduce the dependence of the US economy on oil import from Mideast countries. Russian oil is an alternative in this case. As of now, it is difficult to say to what extent the oil deliveries will be economically justified. The matter of the fact is that the first tanker with Russian oil has covered a rather long way: originally, the oil was loaded onto the tanker in the port of Novorossiisk, then by the Black, Aegean, and Mediterranean seas, it was delivered to Houston. On the other hand, the route from the Persian Gulf is also rather long.
President of YUKOS, a Russian company that performs oil deliveries to the USA, Mikhail Khodorkovsky announced recently the intention to make oil supplies economically rational, one barrel of Russian oil is to cost $25 at least. It is to be taken into consideration that Russian oil is of a lower quality than the Mideast oil. And, consequently, its price on the world markets is much lower than $25.
On the other hand, if the project continues, Mideast countries will have no opportunity to threaten the USA with the cessation of oil supplies. Therefore, Washington is getting more chances for therealization of its Mideast policy, and the USA appreciates this fact very much.
The beginning of the oil supplies is also very important for Russias economy as well. If they become regular, Moscow can look at OPEC from a considerable distance. OPEC, as is known, is not remarkable for its unity of opinions; the increase of quotas for oil sales has been discussed for several months already.
And what is more, unlike the Middle East, Russia has no reason to blackmail the USA with cessation of oil supplies, and no reasons are likely to appear in the future.
On the whole, time will tell to what extent the project turns out to be economically justified. This is just the first shipment of oil from Russia.
Vasily Bubnov
PRAVDA.Ru
Certainly not this guy
Leonid Brezhnev dies from heart attack at 8:30 A.M, November 10, 1982
BTTT for a huge middle finger to the Saudi's. I heard about this a couple of weeks ago and what is reported here is just the tip of the iceberg, that will eventually sink the Saudi "Titanic".
Now, where are all the Bush-bashers that hammered him for kowtowing to the Saudi Princes? Remember the vitriol? He's doing his daddy favors for all the business dealings, and on and on, ad infinitum.
The reason is purely economic. The world oil market automatically delivers oil to the most efficient destination. It hardly makes sense for us to buy lower quality crude that has to be shipped further.
The benefits are just as real, however. Russian oil will most likely find its natural destination in eastern Europe. That will replace oil there which probably comes primarily from the Middle East. The Gulf countries will have to find new buyers or water their lawns with it.
It's all a matter of supply and demand with logistical factors playing a large role. The US will primarily get its imported oil from Mexico and Venezuela, just as it does now. The price will continue to drop as more Russian supply reaches the market. Our actual consumption of oil from the Middle East might not drop at all, yet we will be less dependent on it because we could substitute Russian oil if we had to.
But I don't think a whole lot of Russian oil is in our immediate future. That could change if the big oil fields on their Pacific Coast are developed or pipeline capacity from Siberia is increased (although China would likely be the primary customer of Siberian oil). Russian oil could replace Alaskan oil as the primary fuel for West Coast refineries if further exploration of Alaska is not permitted.
My understanding of some of the deals concluded when Bush was in Russia last, are exactly the same as your quote reflected above.
I agree with your logistical analysis, however, as new fields are developed the possibility increases.
In any event, this is HUGE.
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