The Good News for Republicans: The public is with them on the big issues.

National Review Online ^ | July 2, 2002 | Byron York

[xsysmgr]

Here's the good news, if you're a congressional Democrat flogging your party's issue du jour. The latest CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll, released Monday, asked the following question: "Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Bush administration?" Sixty-three percent of those polled answered yes, while 32 percent said no — numbers sure to warm the hearts of Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt.

But here's the bad news, if you're a congressional Democrat flogging your party's issue du jour. The Gallup pollsters then asked, "Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Democrats in Congress?" Sixty-four percent of those surveyed answered yes, while 28 percent said no.

That's surely not what Daschle and Gephardt wanted to hear. And there is more. When the pollsters asked, "Do you think George W. Bush is more interested in protecting the interests of ordinary Americans or protecting the interests of large corporations?," 53 percent of those polled said ordinary Americans, while 41 percent said large corporations. When they asked the same question about Democrats in Congress, 55 percent said ordinary Americans, while 36 percent said large corporations. Which means that on a key Democratic image point — that Bush cares more about the rich than the Regular Joe — the president scores as well as Daschle and Gephardt and their congressional colleagues. And the poll was taken between June 28 and 30, at the height of WorldCom coverage and after months of Democratic attempts to tarnish the administration over Enron.

But of course George W. Bush is not running for reelection this November. And it should be said that in all those questions, the numbers for congressional Republicans are not nearly as good as those for Bush. For example, 76 percent of those polled say big business has too much influence over the decisions made by the congressional GOP. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed say that Republicans on Capitol Hill care more about large corporations than ordinary Americans, while 30 percent say it's the opposite.

Still, on the generic ballot question — "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" — 46 percent of those polled answered Republican, while 44 percent answered Democratic. And that was when the question was asked of all adults. When Gallup limited the question to registered voters, 49 percent said the GOP candidate, while 44 percent said the Democrat.

Why, after all the Democratic attempts to tie Republicans to corporate misbehavior, do Republicans hold a slight advantage? Because of the GOP's edge on a few critical issues. In general, the Gallup pollsters found that Republicans do well on the issues voters care most about, while Democrats do well on the issues voters care about least. And, headlines aside, corporate misbehavior appears to be one of the issues people care about least.

Gallup asked respondents to rank "which one of the following issues will be most important to you when you vote for Congress next November: the economy, education, making sure large corporations act responsibly, prescription drugs for older Americans, Social Security, terrorism, or the stock market?" This is what the respondents said:

The economy 26%
Terrorism 22%
Education 19%
Social Security 11%
Prescription drugs 10%
Corporations 7%
Stock market 1%

The good news for Republicans comes when the numbers for the top three issues are broken down. When asked whether Republicans or Democrats would do a better job of handling the economy, 44 percent said Republicans, while 40 percent said Democrats. When asked the same question about terrorism, 57 percent said Republicans, while just 22 percent said Democrats. And when asked about education, a long-time Democratic stronghold, 43 percent said Republicans, while 43 percent said Democrats.

When it came to the lesser issues, the party balance changed. When asked whether Republicans or Democrats would do a better job of handling Social Security, 48 percent said Democrats, while 38 percent said Republicans. When asked the same question about prescription drugs, 50 percent said Democrats, while 33 percent said Republicans. And when asked about making sure large corporations act responsibly, 47 percent said Democrats, while 37 percent said Republicans. The problem for Democrats was that just seven percent of those polled chose corporate responsibility as the issue that is most important to them.

Another potential problem for Daschle and Gephardt is that those polled appear to be solidly optimistic about the nation's economic future. When asked to rate the condition of the economy today, 58 percent said it is somewhat or very good, while 42 percent said it is somewhat or very poor. But when asked what they expect the condition of the economy to be a year from now, 71 percent said somewhat or very good, while just 27 percent said somewhat or very poor. And 63 percent said they believe there is little or no chance that their own finances will take a downturn in the next year.

There are other indications of natural support for Republicans. Gallup asked about the proposal to allow people to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into private investments. Even after the market slides and corporate implosions of recent months, 57 percent of those polled said they favor the proposal, against 39 percent who oppose it (the approval is down from 63 percent in January). Gallup also asked whether respondents believe "there is too much, too little or about the right amount of government regulation of business and industry." Sixty-two percent said there was either the right amount or too much; just 33 percent said there was too little regulation. Gallup also inquired about the laws that regulate corporations, asking whether respondents believed "the current laws are not sufficient and new laws are needed, or the current laws are sufficient but need to be enforced more strictly." Sixty-nine percent said the current laws are sufficient but need to be enforced more strictly, while just 27 percent favored new laws.

So the voters' positions seem to favor Republicans. But there's one issue that appears to be a non-starter for Republicans as well as Democrats, and that is blame for today's corporate scandals. When asked whether Bill Clinton is at least partially responsible for the corporate situation, 51 percent strongly or moderately agreed, while 47 percent strongly or moderately disagreed. When asked whether George W. Bush is at least partially to blame, 46 percent strongly or moderately agree, while 49 percent strongly or moderately disagree. Those numbers, combined with the results from the rest of the poll, suggest that Republicans can win on the issues, not blame.

[SteamshipTime]

"Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Bush administration?"
Sixty-three percent of those polled answered yes, while 32 percent said no

"Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Democrats in Congress?"
Sixty-four percent of those surveyed answered yes, while 28 percent said no.

Jesus tap-dancing Christ.

Even NRO didn't realize neither "yes" nor "no" is a proper answer to these questions. That's why the results to both are equal within the statistical margin of error.

I knew journalists were stupid. I just never imagined they were that stupid.

[Intolerant in NJ]

When Gallup limited the question to registered voters, 49 percent said the GOP candidate, while 44 percent said the Democrat...even better (for repubs) than the generic polling in the summer of 1994 - and we remember what happened in the election that year.....

[Coop]

I must admit to being somewhat worried about how the electorate will react to all corporate implosions going on, and their resultant job losses and adverse impact on the already tumbling stock market. No, I don't think Bush or the GOP will be blamed, I'm just afraid the "in" party at the White House will be punished for the economic struggles. So far there's no evidence of that in the polls, but...

[Intolerant in NJ]

I agree it's still pretty shaky, but I think 911 really woke a lot of people from their unthinking stupor. Unless the Dims really come up with some hard, dramatic dirt on the Repubs and their connection with law-breaking businessmen, I think they're going to have a hard time getting many voters to fall for the same tired old anti-repub spin and class warfare propaganda...at least I'm hoping we're beyond that, finally....

[Coop]

I don't know which wise person to credit for the below tidbit, but it's so true:

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter!

[UnBlinkingEye]

"Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Bush administration?"

Sixty-three percent of those polled answered yes, while 32 percent said no

"Do you think big business does — or does not — have too much influence over the decisions made by the Democrats in Congress?"

Sixty-four percent of those surveyed answered yes, while 28 percent said no.

Jesus tap-dancing Christ.

Perhaps the voters aren't as stupid as the Republicrats would like.

Throw those corrupt elected officials out of office and never let their ilk return again.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Well, HL Mencken is famously known to have said, in edited form, "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people" - good point.....