Coleman-Wellstone race still tight in Minnesota

The Pioneer Press ^ | 07/02/2002

[That Subliminal Kid]

Coleman-Wellstone race still tight in Minnesota

BY BILL SALISBURY

Saint Paul (Minn.) Pioneer Press

Democratic incumbent Paul Wellstone and Republican challenger Norm Coleman are still running neck and neck in their race for the U.S. Senate, the latest Pioneer Press poll shows.

If the election were held today, 44 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Wellstone, while 41 percent preferred Coleman in the poll of 625 registered Minnesota voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Two percent favored Green Party candidate Ed McGaa and 13 percent were undecided. Wellstone's 3-percentage-point lead over Coleman is within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Shirley Iverson of Nevis, one of the Minnesotans polled, said she believes longevity is key to establishing Minnesota's political clout in Washington, so she will vote for Wellstone.

"I feel we need somebody who's had some experience there and isn't afraid to speak his mind," said Iverson, a former Hennepin County District Court supervisor. "We need someone to stay there, who knows their way around Washington, D.C., and has some power."

Marguerite Belka of rural Fergus Falls said she is impressed with Coleman's reputation and accomplishments while he was St. Paul's mayor.

The retired schoolteacher said that from everything she has heard from her children, who live in the Twin Cities, and from what she's read, Coleman did a good job in St. Paul.

Despite months of campaigning and an unusually heavy barrage of early TV spots, the race remains the statistical dead heat that it was a year ago. In three previous Pioneer Press polls since July 2001, Wellstone has led by 4 to 6 percentage points.

"Nothing much has changed," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the survey for the Pioneer Press. "The race is still close. The race is still competitive. Stay tuned."

"Check and mate," said pollster Bill Morris, an Augsburg College political science professor. "Their ads are counterbalancing each other."

Morris said it's highly unusual for the battle lines to be so firmly drawn in a major statewide race. Wellstone's races against former U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz, a Republican, in 1990 and 1996 were "far more fluid than it is now," with support for the candidates rising and falling, he said.

Since most voters have already made up their minds, Morris predicted Wellstone and Coleman will focus most of their attention on the roughly 20 percent of voters who are undecided or are weak supporters of a candidate.

The poll revealed a big gender gap. Women support Wellstone over Coleman by a margin of 48 to 37 percent, while men back Coleman, 45 to 40 percent. Coker said that reflects a longtime national trend of women leaning Democratic and men tilting Republican.

The poll had some bad news for Wellstone, Coker said. "Any time an incumbent is running under 50 percent, it's a sign of vulnerability."

The good news for the senator is that slightly fewer voters view him unfavorably than in the past. Forty-five percent expressed a favorable opinion of him, while 29 percent viewed him unfavorably. That marked the first time in seven years of polling that less than 30 percent had a negative impression of Wellstone.

For Coleman, 43 percent had a positive opinion and 21 percent had a negative impression.

Coleman got higher ratings for his performance as mayor of St. Paul than Wellstone received for his two terms in the Senate. Seventeen percent said Coleman did an excellent job and 43 percent rated his performance as good, while 15 percent rated it fair and 6 percent said it was poor.

Wellstone's job performance was rated excellent by 19 percent, good by 36 percent, fair by 27 percent and poor by 14 percent.

Asked what issue will be most important in deciding how to vote in the Senate race, 17 percent listed education, 16 percent said the candidate's character and experience, 14 percent cited jobs and the economy, and 12 percent picked taxes and government spending. No other issue got double-digit support.

POLL DETAILS

This poll was conducted Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for the Pioneer Press by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. The survey consisted of 625 adults in Minnesota who said they regularly vote in state elections.

In theory, 19 times out of 20 a sampling of that size should yield results differing by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from the responses that would be received by polling the entire population.

The margin of error is greater for smaller groups. Errors also can be introduced by the wording of questions and other factors.

---

Bill Salisbury can be reached at bsalisbury@pioneerpress.com or (651) 228-5538.

[daler]

The positive fawning the Minnesota press will bestow upon Sen. Welfare between now and election day will be equalled only by the scathing coverage Coleman will receive.

Don't keep your hopes up. This is Minnesota we're talking about.

[Illbay]

Polls are Bullsh*t.

[That Subliminal Kid]

Go tell Zogby who virtually nailed the 2000 Presidential election. Please don't spam my thread.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to drop kick that creepy Wellstone back to his college campus.

[Wolfstar]

Do not trust any poll on a political matter unless the respondents are likely voters. Do not trust any poll that is of less than 1000 respondents. Even treat those of 1000 or more likely voters with skepticism. If possible, check the question wording, question order, and who paid for the poll. You might be able to spot real trends in public opinion only by averaging several polls of likely voters, and only if the questions were neutral in both wording and order asked, and if all the polls averaged were taken on weekdays. Otherwise, polls are worse than useless, they are dishonest.

[Wolfstar]

I read this book, Illbay. Terrific, well-researched book. I'll never blindly trust any poll again after reading it. That Subliminal Kid is wrong about Zogby. True, at the very end of the campaign, his numbers were the most accurate of all polling companies as to the outcome of the national election. But his numbers swung as widely as the other polling companies until close to the end of the election, and he was dead wrong about California, where I live. Simply because one polling company achieves reasonably accurate results some of the time, does not invalidate the information in "MOBocracy."

[KC_Conspirator]

What is "Mobocracy" about? I would assume that the thesis of the book deals with using polls to achieve your political agenda. Not only can the questions be leading to achieve the result you want, but the way the poll is disseminated to public matters as well. For example, positive polls for Klinton were widely published and reported on during his impeachment. Many of these polls had leading questions, such as smearing Ken Starr. By saying to the public that Klinton was popular president, they put forth the notion that if you did'nt support a scumbag, then you were not "normal".

[Free the USA]

Bump

[Zeroisanumber]

The country would be better off if all of our politicians had the dedication to their jobs that Wellestone does. He and I don't agree, but he works for all of MN, not just his cronies.

[STD]

If either Coleman or Wellstoned were on fire, I wouldn't piss on them to put out the flames.

[Coop]

You might be able to spot real trends in public opinion only by averaging several polls of likely voters

Well, I look at two distinct categories of polls: public opinion and voter preference. Public opinion polls I often yawn at, because they're so easily manipulated. Voter opinion polls are much more up front - Will you vote? For choice A, B or C?

One lone poll should always be viewed with caution. Numerous polls together, especially when sponsored by competing parties, can be very good snapshots of where a race is.

The problem around here is so many seem to view them as Gospel when they're simply statistical samples. And they may be dead on in voter preference, but if the pollsters under or overestimated voter turnout then look out.

[That Subliminal Kid]

Gee. Let me guess. You're a Libertarian.

[EGPWS]

And all this time I was waiting for another formatable opponent to run against Norm for I recall Senator Welfare stating his agenda for his 2nd and FINAL term as Senator and we ALL know he is a man of his word right?

[CPT Clay]

This is going to get HOT!