Posted on 07/01/2002 5:47:47 AM PDT by jonefab
North Carolina was supposed to have its primary election May 7, but a flurry of lawsuits over new legislative boundaries has delayed that vote indefinitely.
Could something similar happen in Kansas?
The answer is in the hands of three federal judges who will meet at 1 p.m. Tuesday in Topeka to hear arguments in a lawsuit by Kansas Attorney General Carla Stovall challenging the new boundaries for the state's four congressional districts.
Everyone from Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, whose office oversees elections, to the candidates is proceeding as if the election will be Aug. 6. But the lawsuit has hung a dark cloud over that date.
Stovall objected to a part of the map drawn by state legislators in May that put Junction City in the 1st District and nearby Fort Riley in the 2nd District. She said this violates legislative guidelines that call for keeping "communities of interest" in the same congressional district, if possible.
Stovall submitted another map that would keep Junction City, Fort
Riley and Manhattan together in the 2nd District.
After that, Democrats intervened, arguing that Lawrence should be kept entirely within the 3rd District. The map approved by the Legislature splits Lawrence between the 3rd and 2nd districts.
No one knows exactly what the judges will do, but there appear to be three options: Approve the Legislature's map, support one of the alternative maps submitted by interveners or draw their own boundaries.
Thornburgh said he thinks the panel of judges will render a decision before July 9. That's the new date the panel set in May as the deadline for congressional candidates to file for office.
The judges also delayed the start of advance voting until July 24. It was scheduled to begin July 17.
If the court panel takes a long time to reach a decision or directs numerous changes in the map, Thornburgh has asked the judges to postpone the primary until late August.
If that occurs, he said, everything in the election process will be affected, from obtaining polling-place leases to hiring board workers.
"A lot of folks working at the polls hold this day open and schedule vacations around it," Thornburgh said.
Voters and candidates in North Carolina still don't know when their primary will be held.
Tim Storey, election analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, said that delaying a primary is uncommon, but it does happen from time to time. It might be a first for Kansas, however.
Thornburgh said he was unaware of any statewide election in Kansas history that was delayed.
Storey said the problems in North Carolina have led to a lot of political uncertainty there. A campaign works to bring a candidate to the highest favorable rating with voters just before the voting begins and works to sustain that peak through election day.
Radio, television and direct-mail ads, along with activities by the candidate, are part of a campaign plan to reach that peak. But how can campaign officials execute this when they don't know when the election will occur?
"The entire primary schedule is on hold," Storey said. "There's a lot of uncertainty."
In Kansas, Republican candidates for governor said they were working toward an Aug. 6 primary but have a "Plan B" in case the court orders a new date.
Would a delay of several weeks help some candidates more than others?
Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, said the common wisdom has Republican moderates being helped by such a delay.
A late-August date or later means that school is back in session and parents are home from vacation. That could translate into more moderate voters at the polls, especially in Johnson County with its education sales-tax proposal on the ballot.
Loomis also said it helps gubernatorial candidates like Senate President Dave Kerr, a Hutchinson Republican, who got into the race late and needed to raise campaign cash and volunteers to match his rivals.
He said Sen. David Adkins, who is perceived to be behind in the race for the GOP nomination for attorney general, needed all the extra time he could get to overtake former Rep. Phill Kline of Shawnee.
"The person who may benefit the most is Kathleen Sebelius," Loomis said of the lone Democratic candidate for governor.
He said a late primary would give the Republican winner less time to raise money, while Sebelius, the current insurance commissioner, would begin the general-election campaign with at least $2 million.
While it might give Kerr and Wichita Mayor Bob Knight, another GOP candidate for governor, more time to raise money, officials in Tim Shallenburger's gubernatorial campaign said the later date won't hurt them.
"Conservative candidates rely heavily on grass-roots organization and a heavy turnout by our voters," said Bob Murray, a Shallenburger campaign spokesman, adding that a delay would give Shallenburger more time to build a stronger organization.
Shallenburger started his campaign Oct. 29.
The panel hearing the redistricting challenge is comprised of District Judge Julie Robinson of Topeka, Chief Judge Deanell Reece Tacha of the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and District Judge J. Thomas Marten of Wichita.
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