Democrats Leading Republicans for Control of House

Gallup ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for control of Congress appears now to favor the Democrats, as the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows them taking a healthy eight-point lead over Republicans among registered voters, 50% to 42%. Democrats have led in the generic ballot in three of the last four polls, with the other poll showing essentially a tie. Among "regular voters" -- Americans who report voting in the last congressional and presidential elections -- the Democratic lead is four points, 49% to 45%.

Last month Republicans received 46% of support among registered voters, and the Democrats 45%. The two previous polls showed the Democrats with leads of seven and four points. From December through February, Republicans had enjoyed a slight advantage that varied from two to five percentage points. But in March, their lead disappeared, as the race became a tie.

Some news stories have suggested that the recent decline in President Bush's approval rating, from a high of 90% shortly after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 to 73% today, may be a factor in the November congressional elections. A comparison of Bush's ratings over the past several months with the results of the congressional vote question gives some support for that view.

As shown in the following graph, the congressional vote question in June 2001 showed a four-point lead for the Democrats, while Bush's approval was at 55%. After the terrorist attacks, Bush's approval jumped by more than 30 points, which was not matched in magnitude by the improvement in the Republican position. Still, Republicans did improve over the next two months, to a five-point advantage over the Democrats, and since then -- as Bush's approval rating has slowly declined -- the Republican advantage has declined as well. The two charts are not correlated one-to-one with each other, but there does appear to be a rough parallel.

[Recovering_Democrat]

The recent Battleground poll doesn't exactly coincide with this, does it? Nevertheless, an important PING for Republicans and conservatives everywhere. Let us NOT allow this lead to continue.
rd

[CyberAnt]

I agree, not only does it not coincide with the Battleground poll, I believe it is the usual skewed poll to try to convince the public that the dems are ahead. They aren't!

I don't mean to imply we don't have our work cut out for us, but the Battleground poll has always been one of the most accurate.

[Coop]

That's fine. The Dems were also leading in 1994.

Some news stories have suggested that the recent decline in President Bush's approval rating, from a high of 90% shortly after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 to 73% today, may be a factor in the November congressional elections. A comparison of Bush's ratings over the past several months with the results of the congressional vote question gives some support for that view.

But, but... for months the Dems have been telling us there's no correlation here! :-p

[Jim Noble]

The Republicans in the House just passed a bill to steal your money to pay for some of Warren Buffet's prescription drugs.

Do rememberHarry Truman's wisdom, "Given the choice between a Republican and a Republican, the people will pick the real Republican every time" (explaining the GOP gains in 1946).

What reason have the House Republicans since 1995 given the conservative majority in this country to support their tenure in office?

Of course they are losing!

[BubbaJunebug]

Except when Ed Goaz the Republican part of the Battleground poll said that Republicans are in trouble as he mentioned on C Span last week as he explained line by line what it all meant.

[Russ]

What's the big deal? If the Republicans retain control of
the House we will continue to creep toward national disaster. If the Democrats win we will just get there a little faster. Either way the forces of statism, political
correctness and social decay will continue unabated.

[goldstategop]

When Republicans act like Democrats its time to toss em out! I say its about time to clean house of the RINOs infesting it.

[sinkspur]

Either way the forces of statism, political correctness and social decay will continue unabated.

Crabby?

[Russ]

"Crabby?"

Somewhat, but also a little sad...

[Destructor]

"Among "regular voters" -- Americans who report voting in the last congressional and presidential elections -- the Democratic lead is four points, 49% to 45%."

Does the Poll take into account that they are only supposed to vote once?

[Clemenza]

Major wake up call for GOP. Soccer moms and urbanites will turn out heavily, while Christian conservatives will stay home. The wimmins will decide this one (not good).

[JohnGalt]

What remains to be seen is whether it will be a peaceful transition into the Information Age or one marked with violence and injustice. 19 illiterate Arabs out-witted a trillion dollar intelligence apparatus, meanwhile our Senators haggle over the price of corn in 2006 and the intellectual classes debate troop movements on the fringes of the empire; assuredly we are in last days. When this country moved from an Agrarian power base to an Industrial power base, 450,000 Americans lost their lives. What fate awaits us?

[deport]

They take a nationwide sample of 856 registered voters and project it into the democrats winning in the 435 congressional races. These are localized to some 650,000 population or less and will be decided at the local level. What someone in the West thinks of their congressional race will have little or no impact upon the race in some other locality.

I can't provide a link at this time but I think the number of truly competitive races for Congress are fairly small, maybe less than 25. 90%+ of incumbents win re-election except in abnomal years like 1994.

[LS]

Generic polls are totally, I repeat, totally useless in House races. The GOP will pick up 12-17 seats MERELY by showing up due to redistricting. We have one in Ohio---I'm not thrilled with the candidate, but I think he's a lock, and will take a former Dem seat. That is a net gain of 2 (+1 GOP, -1 DEM). The only poll that is reliable on this would be a district by district poll of all 435 districts.

[jf55510]

The GOP will pick up 12-17 seats MERELY by showing up due to redistricting.

I would like to know how you figured that out? All the numbers that I have heard and seen, from repubs, have the Repubs gaining between 4 and 8 seats and that is if we are lucky.

[afuturegovernor]

I hate when people try to rationalize every Republican lost as a defeat for Rinos. You know, the people who are hoping the GOP is crushed in the next election so they claim that Rinos were sent a message. (When of course no such message was sent.) Rather the GOP lost too many open seats.

[LarryLied]

If the Democrats win we will just get there a little faster.

A "little" is not the word for it. The most radical members of congress have seniority and will chair the committes. Charlie Rangel will write our tax code, John Conyers will oversee the judiciary and terrorism, Henry Waxman will root our government corruption. And if they win, they will never give up power. Democrats learned their lesson in 1994. They will so rig the game, the GOP or any other party won't have a majority in the House in our life times.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

so Rangel gets 100% of his people and Maxine Waters does too and all the other one race reps. No Republicans come close to that so the numbers dont mean all that much,, ask President Gore if the popular vote means crap?